10 questions that Tuesday’s primaries will answer

I don’t know who’s going to win Tuesday’s Democratic primaries for lieutenant governor and attorney general but I can sure tell you who’s going to lose: Donald Trump.

If all you knew was what you saw from the television ads of the six lieutenant governor candidates and two attorney general candidates, you’d think Trump is their opponent, not the others on the ballot.

That’s likely good politics in a Democratic primary, but it also highlights just how few policy differences there appear to be between the respective candidates. Some primaries are a battle royale for “the soul of the party.” This year’s Democratic primaries for two of the three statewide offices — Abigail Spanberger is already the party’s nominee for governor — does not appear to be one of those. Instead, it appears to be more of a popularity contest — not that there’s anything wrong with that — and an organizational test of which candidate can do the best job identifying a core of supporters, then persuading them to show up for a low-turnout election.

The two statewide Democratic primaries headline Tuesday’s primary action, but those two races aren’t the only ones around Virginia. Here’s a look at some of the other primaries, in the form of some of the questions that will get answered, one way or another.

1. What share of the vote will the Democratic winner for lieutenant governor get?

With six candidates, you could theoretically have a race where the winner receives as little as 16.7% of the vote. That’s unlikely to happen, but it will be difficult for any of these candidates to poll a majority in a crowded field. Four years ago, Democrats had seven candidates on the ballot for lieutenant governor (although one had dropped out after the ballot was set). The winner, Hala Ayala, took 37.6% of the vote. Two decades ago, in 2005, Democrats had a four-way primary for lieutenant governor where the winner, Leslie Byrne, took just 32.9% of the vote. That’s the lowest winning percentage for any candidate, from either party, in a statewide primary in Virginia going back more than a century (which is how far back the state’s digitized records go).

Will a low winning percentage, no matter who the winner is, renew interest in ranked-choice voting at the state level? With ranked-choice voting, voters get to rank their choices in order, so if no candidate gets a majority, then those second-choice votes come into play until somebody does get a majority. If Virginia had that system now, how would that change the dynamics in this race? I have no clue, but it would be a factor that all the candidates would have to consider.

See how the lieutenant governor candidates answered our questionnaire in our Voter Guide.

2. Who wins the Democratic contest for attorney general, Clean Virginia or Dominion Energy?

There is one clear difference between Shannon Taylor and Jay Jones, the two candidates for the Democratic nomination for attorney general: potentially controversial campaign donations. Taylor’s biggest is Dominion Energy — $800,000. That’s about a little more than one-third of her total fundraising. Jones’ biggest donor is the Clean Virginia Fund — more than $1 million. That’s a little less than one-third of his total. Some Democrats don’t like utility money. Some Democrats don’t like money from big donors, either. Here they will either wind up with a nominee who has taken Dominion money or a nominee who has taken a similar amount of money from a donor that also has strong views on energy issues. In other case, the winner will have taken a large percentage from a single donor. Which is it going to be? (Disclosure: Dominion is one of our donors, too, but donors have no say in news decisions; see our policy. You, too, can be a Cardinal donor. Here’s how .)

See how the AG candidates answered our questionnaire in our Voter Guide.

3. Will any House incumbents lose primaries?

Only three have drawn primary challengers. Del. Terry Austin of Botetourt County is the only Republican with an opponent. On the Democratic side, Del. Patrick Hope of Arlington County and Del. Delores O’Quinn of Henrico County have races. Based on the fundraising totals, none of these races seem to be competitive. Dollars don’t vote, though, people do.

You can see how all these candidates, and their challengers, answered our questionnaire in our Voter Guide.

4. Who gets an easy pass to Richmond?

All 100 seats in the House of Delegates are up for election this fall, but let’s be realistic: Only about a half-dozen are truly competitive; maybe a dozen at most. The others are all in districts that are either solidly red or solidly blue. Many of the 17 House primaries (nine Democratic, eight Republican) on the ballot Tuesday are in noncompetitive districts, and some of those are to pick challengers who will face long odds in the fall. In a few, though, the primary is to nominate a candidate for the dominant party in that district, meaning the primary is tantamount to election.

Not counting the three incumbents mentioned above, the primary winner who will be in the best shape the day after the primary will be the winner of the Republican primary for House District 46 in Southwest Virginia. This is an open seat — Del. Jed Arnold, R-Smyth County is retiring — but this is also a district that voted 78.5% Republican in last year’s presidential race.

There’s a Democratic candidate on the fall ballot but, for practical purposes, the district’s next delegate will get chosen Tuesday in the Republican primary. Adam Tolbert, a community college administrator from Smyth County, began as the favorite. He’s got the endorsement of Gov. Glenn Youngkin and a long list of other party officials. However, Mitchell Cornett, a farmer and county supervisor from Grayson County, has run a spirited campaign, much of it criticizing Appalachian Power (which may be as unpopular in some parts of Southwest Virginia as Trump is with Democratic voters).

Grayson accounts for just 18% of the voters in that district but so far has supplied 41% of the early votes (although keep in mind that Republicans still prefer day-of voting, so that figure may not mean as much as it would in a Democratic contest). Tolbert has raised the most money, but Cornett had the most yet to spend in the final days, according to the latest campaign finance reports. Given the lopsided Republican nature of the district, whoever prevails can be pretty much assured of taking a seat in Richmond in January.

You can see how these candidates answered our questionnaire on the Grayson , Pulaski, Smyth and Wythe pages of our Voter Guide.

Del. Danny Marshall, R-Danville, is retiring, and there’s a double primary underway in that Southside district: Vanessa Scearce vs. Madison Whittle for the Republican nomination, Jasmine Lipscomb vs. Gary Miller for the Democratic nod.

Whittle and Miller have led their respective sides in fundraising. If they wind up meeting in the fall, that would be a contest between two members of the Danville City Council. This is a district that voted 53.69% Republican in last year’s election.

You can see how these candidates answered our questionnaire on the Danville , Halifax and Pittsylvania pages on our Voter Guide.

6. Who will face each other in an open seat that’s one of Virginia’s most competitive districts?

That would be House District 89, which takes in parts of Chesapeake and Suffolk. The district is currently represented by a Republican: Del. Baxter Ennis, who is retiring. It’s also a district that voted Democratic in last year’s election, slightly. Kamala Harris took 50.1% of the vote here to 47.2% for Donald Trump. Both parties have two-candidate primaries in this district: Kacey Carnegie vs. Blaizen Buckshot Bloom for the Democrats, Kristen Shannon vs. Mike Lamonea for the Republicans. If Republicans hope to win a majority, this is a seat they must hold. If Democrats want to expand their majority, this is a place where they think they could do it. That’s why both parties will be watching these results closely on Tuesday.

About two-thirds of the voters here are in Chesapeake. For the primary on the Republican side, even more voters will come from Chesapeake, because that city has a hot Republican primary for sheriff that is driving up the turnout there.

If you’re curious about Bloom’s unusual name, know this: He was named after two NASCAR drivers, Blaise Alexander and Buckshot Jones. If elected, the 22-year-old Bloom would be the state’s youngest legislator.

You can see how the Democrats answered our questionnaire on the Chesapeake and Suffolk pages on the Voter Guide. Alas, the two Republicans haven’t replied (but still could!).

7. Who will Republicans nominate in two competitive districts they’d like to flip?

The road to a House majority takes many twists and turns but at least part of it likely runs through House District 21 in Prince William County and House District 97 in Virginia Beach. Both are currently held by Democrats who won narrowly two years ago; both are ones that Republicans think they could win, although first they need to pick their nominees.

House District 21: Democrat Josh Thomas won this in 2023 with 51.74% of the vote. This year three Republicans are competing for the right to run against him: Greg Gorham, Xanthe Larsen and Sahar Smith. We’d love to tell you where they stand on the issues, but none responded to multiple invites to answer our Voter Guide questionnaire, something most other House candidates did.

House District 97: Two years ago, Democrat Michael Feggans ousted the Republican incumbent in this district as his party took back the majority. This year, Republicans would like to oust him. First, though, they have to choose their nominee. Former Del. Tim Anderson and Christina Felder are the candidates.

You can see how Felder answered our questionnaire on the Virginia Beach page of the Voter Guide. Anderson didn’t reply — not yet, anyway.

8. Who will Democrats nominate in three competitive districts they’d like to flip?

Same question, just in reverse, then times three. There are three districts in suburban Richmond that Republicans won narrowly in 2023 but which Democrats think are ripe for the taking this year. First, though, they need to settle on who their candidates will be.

House District 57: Two years ago, Republican David Owen won this district covering parts of Goochland and Henrico counties with just 50.77% of the vote. You may remember this as the race where the Democratic candidate had some sex tapes become public. This is also one of eight Republican-held House districts in Virginia that Kamala Harris won last fall; she took 53.53% here, according to calculations by the State Navigate website.

The Democratic candidates in the primary are Andrew Schear and May Nivar. You can see how they anwered our questionnaire on the Goochland and Henrico pages on our Voter Guide.

House District 72: Republican Mark Earley Jr. won this district in Chesterfield County last time with 54.41% of the vote. However, Harris won it last fall with 49.57% to 48.50% for Donald Trump; some third-party candidates took the rest.

The candidates seeking the Democratic nomination to face Earley are Leslie Mehta and Justin David Woodford. You can see how Mehta anwered our questionnaire on the Chesterfield County page of our Voter Guide. Woodford did not respond to multiple invites to submit answers. Of all the Democratic candidates running in House primaries this year, he’s the only one who didn’t reply.

House District 75: This district is mostly Chesterfield County, but also Hopewell and part of Prince George County. Republican Carrie Coyner currently represents the district. She won two years ago with 52.76% over Democrat Stephen Miller-Pitts. Last fall it went for Harris, with 52.51% of the presidential vote going Democratic.

There’s a three-way race going on for the Democratic nomination to face Coyner. Miller-Pitts is running again, so are Lindsey Daugherty and Dustin Wade. You can see how all three answered our Voter Guide on the Chesterfield , Hopewell and Prince George pages in our Voter Guide.

(If you’re curious why we don’t have entries for the Republican incumbents in these districts, or the Democratic incumbents in the entry above, here’s why: Right now, we just have the candidates in the primary, in both parties. After the primary, we’ll send out questionnaires to all the candidates who make the fall ballot and publish those on the Voter Guide sometime this summer. Almost all the primary candidates responded so we hope general election candidates will, too.)

9. Will any incumbent supervisors lose?

I’m confining this question to the 10 Republican primaries in Cardinal’s coverage area in the western part of the state. In six of those races — in Bedford County, Botetourt County, Carroll County, Craig County, Floyd County and Montgomery County — incumbents have drawn challengers.

Botetourt County has two board primaries, one for an open seat in the Amsterdam District, another with an incumbent challenged in the Buchanan District. With no Democrats in sight, two-fifths of the county’s board could get elected Tuesday, no matter which way things go.

You can see how these candidates answered our questionnaire; just go to our Voter Guide and look up the specific locality.

10. Will ranked-choice voting determine the winner of Charlottesville’s Democratic primary for city council?

If two candidates get an outright majority, then the second choice votes don’t matter. If one or more candidates fall short of a majority, though, then ranked choice kicks in. If you like this system, let the folks at Ranked Choice Virginia know.