Voters will head to the polls Tuesday in Wisconsin and Florida to decide two House seats and a state Supreme Court seat, races that have attracted immense spending and will be bellwethers for the country’s political pulse in 2025.With that in mind, Score is looking at a few key themes to decipher what tomorrow’s elections mean — and what they don’t — heading into the rest of the year.Elon Musk has played a key role in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race between liberal candidate Susan Crawford and conservative candidate Brad Schimel — both as a target for Democrats in campaign ads and as a heavy financial backer for Republicans.Which of those two will resonate more with voters? Tuesday may provide some answers.Musk ramped up his efforts in Wisconsin in the final days — and also threw some cash behind Florida’s special election — as Republicans have faced a string of special election losses, including a shocker in Pennsylvania last week.Despite some high-dollar donations backing Democrats from the likes of Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and mega donor George Soros, no one is coming close to Musk. Two Musk-linked PACs have contributed a whopping $17 million in support of Brad Schimel, and Musk himself gave $3 million to the state Republican party.Democrats have poured more into the race overall, though, putting nearly $40 million into television ads compared with $32 million from Republican groups, according to figures reported to AdImpact. Crawford’s campaign also outraised Schimel in the final stretch, raising $17 million compared to Schimel’s $7 million.Democrats have used that to their advantage, cutting ads linking Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency to Schimel. A plane flying over the Milwaukee area on Thursday carried a banner reading “Go Home Elon. Vote Susan.”This is Musk’s first major political test since helping bolster President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign, where his America PAC spent hundreds of millions. And it’s also the first test for Democratic messaging against Musk, with the left using the race as a referendum against the world’s richest man and his campaign to slash government jobs and spending.Can Democrats keep the momentum going?Democrats have pulled off a couple big upsets so far this year in special elections. In state legislative races in Iowa and Pennsylvania, they flipped seats that Trump carried by double digits. And they’ve been able to hold seats in safe Democratic areas, too.But Tuesday will be the biggest test yet. In a pair of Florida special elections for vacant congressional seats, Democrats Josh Weil and Gay Valimont have vastly outraised their Republican opponents, Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis, despite the districts being viewed as safe by the GOP.Republicans are particularly worried about Fine. An internal poll last week from Trump’s pollster — Tony Fabrizio — showed Fine down three points to Weil, who has raised more than $10 million.Democrats are insisting that Republicans are “panicked” about the race, but it will still be an uphill battle to notch a win in either district.Meanwhile, in Wisconsinrecent polling has shown a statistically deadlocked race between Crawford and Schimel.Republicans willmaintain their controlof the House after Tuesday’s elections, even if Democrats pull off a miracle and flip both seats in Florida. Still, it’s a razor-thin margin, and any losses would be a thorn in the side of Speaker Mike Johnson, who is navigating the caucus through crucial policy fights.On Thursday, Trump pulled Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be U.N. ambassador after he determined he didn’t “want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat,” showing that Republicans are starting to sweat their slim margins.If Republicans are able to keep both seats on Tuesday, that gives Johnson and Trump just a bit more breathing room to pass their most ambitious priorities.Is the Republican brand taking a hit?Much has been written about Democrats’ brand problem, but if Republicans underperform — and members of their own party expect it — expect Democrats to rub it in. Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis already laid the blame at Fine’s feet last week.“Regardless of the outcome in that, it’s going to be a way underperformance,” DeSantis told reporters. “They’re going to try to lay that at the feet of President Trump. That is not a reflection of President Trump. It’s a reflection of a specific candidate running in that race.”Republican candidate Fine isn’t too worried though, telling POLITICO: “We’re going to be fine.”Democrats are already painting the specials as a reflection of voter attitude toward Trump, and as evidence that the party will make gains in the midterms.“A few weeks ago, they were too scared to face voters at town halls. Now, they are so scared they can’t even face voters at the polls,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Courtney Rice, following Trump’s decision to yank Stefanik’s nomination. “Doesn’t bode particularly well for 2026.”As is the case with all special elections, voter turnout will prove crucial in all of the races.In Wisconsin, early voting totals were poised to surpass 2023’s high-profile race, with in-person early voting already ahead of that race and absentee ballots not far behind. Two years ago, liberal Janet Protasiewicz took the victory in that contest — which determined the ideological makeup of the court.Trump participated in a tele-town hall for Fine and Patronis to help get out the vote in Florida with early voting underway. The Democratic National Committee is investing in some last-minute get out the vote work, too, though it didn’t specify a dollar amount.So far, Republicans have an edge in early voter turnout in person, per Decision Desk HQ data.Happy Monday, and thanks for reading Score. What are you watching for tomorrow? Lemme know: @andrewjfhoward or .Want to receive this newsletter every weekday?Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
FIRST IN SCORE —NEXT GEN DEM GROUPS BAND TOGETHER: Two Democratic states-focused organizations are teaming up to deepen the party’s bench by supporting Democrats running for local positions and when they win. NewDeal Leaders, a network of state and local Democrats, is joining forces with the Next 50, which identifies fifty candidates seeking office under the age of fifty and directs campaign resources to them, my colleague Liz Crampton writes in.“Now more than ever, we need to have more focus, more collaboration, more kind of unification of effort to make sure that we are both building the bench and winning tough elections now,” said Zach Wahls, executive director of The Next 50, who is also an Iowa state senator.The Next 50, which launched in 2019, says it has raised more than $12 million toward its work trying to elect young Democrats in swing districts. In this last cycle, Next50 moved over $4 million across 50 races and seventy percent of its candidates won. The group will announce its next batch of endorsements in April, with an eye toward the Virginia elections in November.NewDEAL CEO Debbie Cox Bultan said she’s looking forward to “being able to elevate the stories and ideas of those next generation leaders who are winning in tough districts as really a roadmap for the future of the party.”MORE ON TUESDAY’S SPECIALS — Jimmy Patronis is worried about Gay Valimont’s spending in FL-01. “I’ve never been outspent in a race before,” he said on Fox News, per Florida Politics’ A.G. Gancarski. “They’re out spending me seven to one. dollars are coming in from all over the country and it’s crazy. My opponent has so much money.”… The Wisconsin Supreme Court rejected an appeal from Democratic attorney general Josh Kaul to block Elon Musk from giving away $2 million to Wisconsin voters, Molly Beck reports for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.SUNDAY RECAP — Trump refused to rule out seeking a third term during an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” telling host Kristen Welker: “You know, a lot of people would like me to do that. But, I mean, I basically tell them, we have a long way to go, you know, it’s very early in the administration.” Read more on the interview, from my colleague Gregory Svirnovskiy.… Sen.Michael Bennet(D-Colo.), who isexpected to announce a run for governorsoon,told Welker that the Democratic brand is “really problematic.” Bennet’s comments, which came after he was asked by Welker if the brand was “toxic,” follow California Gov. Gavin Newsom calling his own party too “toxic” and “judgmental,” during an appearance on “Real Time with Bill Maher.”OFF TO THE RACES — Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) launched his bid for governor on Friday, pitching himself as the preferred candidate of President Donald Trump. POLITICO’s Kimberly Leonard has more from the kickoff rally.ON THE LEFT — “Bernie Sanders has built one of the most durable movements in American politics. But many inside and outside of it are worrying what happens when he’s gone,” writes POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein. “While his barnstorming across the country with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez looked to some Democrats like a straightforward case of anointing his successor for the 2028 presidential campaign, progressives who know both elected officials said Sanders’ calculation — and hers — is far less clear.”THEY’RE BACK — “Some losing House candidates get a second look for 2026,” by Roll Call’s Daniela Altimari.POSTMORTEM — “How the Harris Campaign Blew the Latino Vote,” by Campaigns & Elections Max Greenwood.UH OH — Biden world is preparing for books “that promise to excavate and relitigate not only the historic 2024 presidential campaign but the former president’s own physical and mental condition before dropping out,” POLITICO’s Adam Wren reported in Sunday’s Playbook.LONGREAD — “It’s been months since Democrats suffered a devastating defeat at the polls. For all the talk about the party’s need for change, few seem actually willing to make the leap,” my colleague Holly Otterbein writes in POLITICO Magazine.NJ GOV — “Scott Presler, the conservative activist who runs Republican voter registration-focused PAC Early Vote Action and has built his brand around promoting Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen, is focusing on the Garden State this year after spending much of 2024 in Pennsylvania,” writes POLITICO’s Madison Fernandez.NYC MAYOR — “With Cuomo Leading Mayor’s Race, His Political Baggage Grows Heavier,” by The New York Times’ Nicholas Fandos and Dana Rubinstein.TRUMP EFFECT — The battle for the GOP nomination in New Jersey’s governor’s race will likely hinge on the party’s de-facto leader, President Donald Trump, writes AP’s Mike Catalini, pointing out that Trump, a part-time resident of Bedminster, “burnished his reputation and his brand near the Atlantic City Boardwalk.”CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “With the popularity of Garrity, and the grassroots of Mastriano, who could stop us?” state Sen. Doug Mastriano said, mulling a second gubernatorial bid against Gov. Josh Shapiro.
CONTINUE READING
FIRST IN SCORE —NEXT GEN DEM GROUPS BAND TOGETHER: Two Democratic states-focused organizations are teaming up to deepen the party’s bench by supporting Democrats running for local positions and when they win. NewDeal Leaders, a network of state and local Democrats, is joining forces with the Next 50, which identifies fifty candidates seeking office under the age of fifty and directs campaign resources to them, my colleague Liz Crampton writes in.“Now more than ever, we need to have more focus, more collaboration, more kind of unification of effort to make sure that we are both building the bench and winning tough elections now,” said Zach Wahls, executive director of The Next 50, who is also an Iowa state senator.The Next 50, which launched in 2019, says it has raised more than $12 million toward its work trying to elect young Democrats in swing districts. In this last cycle, Next50 moved over $4 million across 50 races and seventy percent of its candidates won. The group will announce its next batch of endorsements in April, with an eye toward the Virginia elections in November.NewDEAL CEO Debbie Cox Bultan said she’s looking forward to “being able to elevate the stories and ideas of those next generation leaders who are winning in tough districts as really a roadmap for the future of the party.”MORE ON TUESDAY’S SPECIALS — Jimmy Patronis is worried about Gay Valimont’s spending in FL-01. “I’ve never been outspent in a race before,” he said on Fox News, per Florida Politics’ A.G. Gancarski. “They’re out spending me seven to one. dollars are coming in from all over the country and it’s crazy. My opponent has so much money.”… The Wisconsin Supreme Court rejected an appeal from Democratic attorney general Josh Kaul to block Elon Musk from giving away $2 million to Wisconsin voters, Molly Beck reports for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.SUNDAY RECAP — Trump refused to rule out seeking a third term during an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” telling host Kristen Welker: “You know, a lot of people would like me to do that. But, I mean, I basically tell them, we have a long way to go, you know, it’s very early in the administration.” Read more on the interview, from my colleague Gregory Svirnovskiy.… Sen.Michael Bennet(D-Colo.), who isexpected to announce a run for governorsoon,told Welker that the Democratic brand is “really problematic.” Bennet’s comments, which came after he was asked by Welker if the brand was “toxic,” follow California Gov. Gavin Newsom calling his own party too “toxic” and “judgmental,” during an appearance on “Real Time with Bill Maher.”OFF TO THE RACES — Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) launched his bid for governor on Friday, pitching himself as the preferred candidate of President Donald Trump. POLITICO’s Kimberly Leonard has more from the kickoff rally.ON THE LEFT — “Bernie Sanders has built one of the most durable movements in American politics. But many inside and outside of it are worrying what happens when he’s gone,” writes POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein. “While his barnstorming across the country with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez looked to some Democrats like a straightforward case of anointing his successor for the 2028 presidential campaign, progressives who know both elected officials said Sanders’ calculation — and hers — is far less clear.”THEY’RE BACK — “Some losing House candidates get a second look for 2026,” by Roll Call’s Daniela Altimari.POSTMORTEM — “How the Harris Campaign Blew the Latino Vote,” by Campaigns & Elections Max Greenwood.UH OH — Biden world is preparing for books “that promise to excavate and relitigate not only the historic 2024 presidential campaign but the former president’s own physical and mental condition before dropping out,” POLITICO’s Adam Wren reported in Sunday’s Playbook.LONGREAD — “It’s been months since Democrats suffered a devastating defeat at the polls. For all the talk about the party’s need for change, few seem actually willing to make the leap,” my colleague Holly Otterbein writes in POLITICO Magazine.NJ GOV — “Scott Presler, the conservative activist who runs Republican voter registration-focused PAC Early Vote Action and has built his brand around promoting Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen, is focusing on the Garden State this year after spending much of 2024 in Pennsylvania,” writes POLITICO’s Madison Fernandez.NYC MAYOR — “With Cuomo Leading Mayor’s Race, His Political Baggage Grows Heavier,” by The New York Times’ Nicholas Fandos and Dana Rubinstein.TRUMP EFFECT — The battle for the GOP nomination in New Jersey’s governor’s race will likely hinge on the party’s de-facto leader, President Donald Trump, writes AP’s Mike Catalini, pointing out that Trump, a part-time resident of Bedminster, “burnished his reputation and his brand near the Atlantic City Boardwalk.”CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “With the popularity of Garrity, and the grassroots of Mastriano, who could stop us?” state Sen. Doug Mastriano said, mulling a second gubernatorial bid against Gov. Josh Shapiro.
