Since Virginia governors can’t run for consecutive terms, Republicans will need to find a candidate to replace current Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA).

Youngkin won the 2021 governor’s race over Terry McAuliffe by about two points in a state that former President Joe Biden carried by over nine points against President Donald Trump in 2020.

During his election, Youngkin successfully walked the line of appealing both to Trump supporters and never-Trump voters. Youngkin’s victory proved that Republicans can still win a statewide election in Virginia, even though the state has moved left over the last two decades.

Youngkin has enjoyed positive approval ratings throughout his term and some polls indicate that he is one of the more popular governors in the nation. His name was floated in vice president considerations before Trump picked JD Vance. Although there is no incumbency advantage in the race, the fact that Virginia has a popular Republican governor may be helpful to other Republican candidates looking to win in November.

Two Republicans and one Democrat have declared their candidacy. Current Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA) will face investigative reporter Merle Rutledge in the Republican primary, and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger is currently running unopposed in the Democrat primary. However, Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA) is considering a run and could challenge Spanberger for the nomination.

The most likely matchup currently looks to be Earle-Sears against Spanberger, who represented Virginia’s 7th Congressional District from 2019-2025 until she decided to step down from her seat to run for governor.

Earle-Sears’s path to nomination got easier after Youngkin gave her his endorsement, and current Attorney General Jason Miyares sought to run for reelection rather than challenge her for the nomination.

The primary elections for both parties will take place on June 17.

Early polling indicates a small lead for Democrats. Spanberger currently leads Earle-Sears by between one and five points. Democrats will also be running on a high after they took control of the House of Delegates in the 2023 midterm elections.

However, Republicans have reason to be optimistic.

First, Earle-Sears proved that she could win a statewide race when she won the lieutenant governorship in 2021.

Second, voting numbers in the state indicate a shift to the right. Although Biden beat Trump by nine points in 2020, former Vice President Kamala Harris only carried the state by five points. Harris was more unpopular than Biden was in 2020, which may account for the difference, but the numbers indicate a path for Earle-Sears.

Also, although the polls show Spanberger leading, most feature a high percentage of undecided voters. When those voters begin to break, there will be a clearer picture of where this race is heading.

The Virginia governor’s race is currently a toss-up. Democrats will be looking to ride the trend from the last midterm elections, as well as historical state trends, while Republicans will be looking to bank off Younkin’s popularity to elevate Earle-Sears to the governorship.