Just weeks after a discovery that could transform humble Arkansas into an unexpected global powerhouse in a green-tech future, the state is learning the hard way that, as in life and love, when it comes to lithium, timing is everything.

A study released last month by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Arkansas Department of Energy and Environment revealed a huge deposit of lithium – the essential element in batteries for electric vehicles – in a limestone aquifer known as the Smackover Formation in the southwestern section of the state.

There’s one factor that could dampen the enthusiasm about the remarkable discovery. A common method of extracting lithium is through strip mining, an environmentally unfriendly technique. Nonetheless, the potential impact the find is nothing less than jaw-dropping.

Scientists estimate the deposit contains between five and 19 million tonnes of lithium. That may be nine times the expected global demand for the element in car batteries by 2030.

If commercialized, the deposit contains enough lithium to give the U.S. independence from expensive imports from big lithium producers such as Australia, Chile, China and Argentina, with lots leftover to be sold to the global EV market.

For Arkansas, a state whose economy, education and health care systems and poverty levels consistently rank among the worst in the country, Mother Nature’s bounty could bring new levels of prosperity – and quickly.

But here’s where that pesky timing thing interferes. Last week, while the euphoria about Smackover was still fresh, U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s transition team said they were looking at eliminating the Biden administration’s EV tax credit of US$7,500 per vehicle as part of a bigger plan to reform taxes.

The move reflects what critics have called a less friendly position toward EVs from the incoming administration. As well, it would likely throw another wrench into the domestic EV market which, like its global counterparts, has seen sales soften over the past year or so, especially among legacy automakers that have had trouble gaining the same sort of traction as market leader Tesla.

The tax credit, part of U.S. President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, has been a way to help address one of the main hurdles to widespread consumer adoption of EVs – high retail prices – and drive consumers toward the mandates in many states that all new-vehicle sales by 2035 must be EVs.

While EV sticker prices have come down in the past year, they are still higher than gas vehicles. The average EV price is just more than US$56,000 compared with over US$48,000 for a gas vehicle.

The tax incentives have been an especially useful lifeline to legacy automakers that have fallen well short of EV sales estimates and have cut back production of the vehicles.

Canada has felt that pinch. Earlier this year, Ford Motor Co. scrapped plans to convert its Oakville, Ont., plant to EV production and instead will produce heavy-duty gas-powered pickup trucks there. The company also laid off more than 1,000 workers at a Michigan plant after cutting production plans for its electric F-series pickup truck because of weak demand.

Interestingly, Elon Musk has expressed his support for eliminating the tax credit, a reflection of his newfound insider role on Mr. Trump’s team and Tesla’s position as the 800-pound gorilla in the EV market. Killing the tax credit, it seems, won’t kill buyers’ enthusiasm for the world’s best-selling electric vehicles and may in fact open up more distance between Tesla and its competitors.

Whether or not eliminating the EV tax credit will have an immediate effect on the Arkansas discovery remains to be seen. After all, lithium is also used in other products, most notably mobile phones. At the very least, however, the move coming so soon after the discovery is a bit of rain on the state’s parade – and this is a state that could use a nice parade.

A recent U.S. News and World Report study ranked Arkansas 47th out of the 50 states based on a number of categories. Its economy ranked 40th in the nation; its health care system 47th; infrastructure 42nd; and crime and corrections 49th.

Other than the Walmart headquarters in Bentonville and some Tyson Foods operations, there aren’t a lot of household corporate names in Arkansas.

As one scientist close to the Smackover project said: Even in a green world, there is no free lunch.