The loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC championship game accentuated the priority for the Buffalo Bills’ defense this offseason.

The pass defense was more of a problem than the run defense for the Bills in 2024.

The Bills actually contained the Chiefs’ ground game reasonably well in the 32-29 season-ending loss. The Bills held Chiefs running backs to 76 yards on 22 carries, a 3.45-yard average. Yes, quarterback Patrick Mahomes hurt the Bills on 11 runs for 43 yards. But the pass defense had a terrible day.

All the statistics back it up. The Bills had a good defense in 2024. But just like in the past five years of playoff exits, the Bills’ defense was not championship caliber against the best competition – Kansas City, especially.

The Bills’ defense ranked 11th in points allowed, 17th in yards allowed, 12th in rushing yards allowed and 24th in passing yards allowed.

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Was the passing ranking because the Bills won a lot of games and gave up a ton of garbage-time passing yards? Not really. Even looking at advanced analytics, the Bills’ pass defense was lacking. The Bills were 23rd in pass defense according to “expected points added,” which factors in every down and distance situation, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The Bills were 14th in “value over average” vs. the pass, which factors in the quality of the competition, according to FTN Fantasy. (The advanced run rankings were better than most Bills fans probably realize – fourth in EPA and eighth best in value over average.)

The passing yards per attempt allowed was worse in the first three quarters (7.0) than the fourth quarter (5.83). Against the three-wideout, 11 personnel group, the Bills’ defense was 28th for the season in EPA per pass.

“Defensively, we have to perform better than we did, and that’s real,” coach Sean McDermott said in his season wrap-up news conference. “And so there’s a lot that you look at. I’m sure we’ll get into it, but I would say that we’re very aware of where we’re at and in place in time and where our team is.”

Obviously, the pass rush was not great. The Bills had 39 sacks, tied for 18th, and 16 fewer sacks than in 2023, when the Bills had the fourth most (54). The Bills were 23rd in sacks per pass attempt this season.

Defensive end Greg Rousseau, tackling Ravens receiver Rashod Bateman in the AFC divisional playoff game, was one of the brightest spots for the Buffalo defense in 2024.

Greg Rousseau led the Bills with eight sacks, and he ranked 10th among NFL edge rushers in pressures with 63. He improved from five sacks and 27th in pressures in 2023. He was the bright spot.

Von Miller managed 6.0 sacks (Leonard Floyd had 10.5 in 2023). Ed Oliver went from 9.5 sacks in 2023 to 3.0. A.J. Epenesa went from 6.5 sacks to 6.0 this year, and his pressure rate (pressures per pass rush) took a big drop, 8.7% to 4.0%, according to Pro Football Focus.

The Bills had 12 sacks on blitzes. The previous year they had 16.

As always under McDermott, the Bills majored heavily in zone coverage, and they’re good at it. Other good defenses, like the Chargers and Packers, played even less man coverage than the Bills. But man coverage was a problem in the playoffs, when it was skewered by the Chiefs. The Bills played some form of man coverage 20% of the time, according to Fantasy Points Data.

The Bills played man coverage nearly half of Mahomes’ dropbacks in the AFC title game (47%), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Mahomes had his best, most efficient passing day (in terms of EPA/dropback) in his last 51 games, going back to Week 7 of 2022.

“We have to figure out a way to perform better against that football team,” McDermott said.

Boom bust vs. run

The Bills had a boom-bust run defense in 2024.

They gave up 62 runs of 10-plus yards during the regular season, which was ninth most in the league but the second-worst rate in the league based on the number of rushing attempts faced.

They also had the best “stuff percentage” in the NFL against the run, which is the percentage of runs by opponents that went for 0 or negative yards. The Bills stuffed 103 of 435 runs, 23.7%.

It’s reflective of the way the Bills want their defensive linemen to attack gaps and get upfield. The Bills blew up a lot of plays. Rousseau was the team leader in tackles for loss (16). Oliver, Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams all were about even as next best at blowing up run plays, according to Buffalo News charting. But the defense also got gashed on the ground a bunch.

How much of a problem is it?

That’s something the Bills’ football brain trust has to think hard about this offseason.

The Bills ask a lot of their defensive line. They like to lean toward pass coverage and stop the run with a “light box,” six men in the tackle-to-tackle area near the line of scrimmage. The Bills played the sixth-highest rate of light boxes (54%), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. And the Bills were lowest in the league at running a “stacked box,” eight men near the line of scrimmage (7.1%).

In the divisional-round playoff win over the Baltimore Ravens, the Bills committed more bodies to the line of scrimmage than usual, with one-high safety looks on 17 of 24 running back runs, according to News charting. The Ravens had six carries for 3 yards in the first half vs. one-high looks with a safety closer to the line of scrimmage. For the game, it was 17 carries for 85 yards (5.0 a carry), vs. one-high looks.

The coaches adjusted vs. the Ravens, and it worked.

Bills defensive coordinator Bobby Babich defended Terrel Bernard, the team's undersized middle linebacker.

Defensive coordinator Bobby Babich took exception to the idea the Bills were hurt by a relative lack of size up front after the win over the Ravens. In particular, he defended Bernard, the undersized middle linebacker.

“I mean football players are football players,” Babich said. “You could chase size, speed, all those things, but when it comes down to it, we talk about it all the time, much like the NBA. It’s a make-or-miss league. Either you’re making plays or you’re not, you know? I would just say when it comes to the intangibles, Terrel’s the total package. ... I know a lot of people wouldn’t like him for the things that in my mind don’t matter as much in football. We’re lucky to have him. I think his teammates would tell you we’re lucky to have him.”

Strength of schedule

Just like the Buffalo offense, the Bills’ defense faced easier than expected opposition in 2024, in large part because the opposing offenses in the AFC East struggled so badly. The Dolphins ranked 18th, the Jets 24th and the Patriots 31st in yards gained.

The Bills played 11 of 17 games vs. offenses that finished in the bottom half of the league. There were six against top-12 offenses (Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City, San Francisco, the Rams and Arizona).

Takeaways

The Bills ranked third in the NFL in takeaways with 32 and added four more in the playoffs. The Bills were tied for first in fumble recoveries with 16 and fifth in interceptions with 16.

The Bills’ takeaway track record under McDermott is incredible. The Bills’ 220 takeaways over the past eight seasons, since 2017, is No. 1 in the league. Pittsburgh is second with 207, followed by Indianapolis (197), Minnesota and Dallas (196). The Bills are the only team in the top 10 in takeaways each of the past eight seasons.

Opponents fumbled the ball 28 times vs. the Bills, and Buffalo recovered 16. That’s a recovery rate of 57%, which was best in the league. Fumble recovery rates in football typically are random, subject to lucky bounces. Some years you recover a lot, some not so much. Yet the Bills’ defense defies those odds. The Bills have ranked in the top 12 of fumble recoveries six of the last seven years.

The defense deserves credit for putting the Bills’ offense in advantageous positions. The Buffalo offense led the NFL in average line of scrimmage per drive (the 33.4), which was largely aided by getting the ball off turnovers.

Third downs

The final ranking on third down for the defense was 29th, allowing 43.7% conversions. The problem goes back to insufficient coverage and pass rush. The Bills let teams off the hook on third down.

On third-and-6 to third-and-9, opponents converted 53.7%, worst in the NFL by far. The league average was 36.3%. The Bills ranked fifth in defensive efficiency on both first down and second down, but 29th on third down. And the numbers’ in the Bills’ blowout wins, when they were protecting fourth-quarter leads, weren’t the problem. Take away third-and-6 to third-and-9 plays in the fourth quarter with a spread of 10 or more points, and the Bills still yielded 52.4% conversions (22 of 42).

Bitter end

In five playoff losses the past five years, the Bills’ defense has forced just eight total punts.

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