Week 13 may have been the final nail in
Alabama 's
College Football Playoff coffin. While
ESPN's FPI gives the Crimson Tide a 37.7 percent chance to make the playoff, that is only 12th best in all of
college football . Plus, we still have to crown a Big 12 champion, who would effectively be bid stealing. What I am getting at is, if Alabama wanted to make the playoff, it should not have lost to Oklahoma... But given the sheer chaos we saw a weekend ago in college football, I am not willing to close the door on Alabama getting in just yet. The Crimson Tide will need to win the Iron Bowl over Auburn to prevent the Tigers from achieving bowl eligibility to start. They will need a ton of help from teams outside of their control to do enough to merit inclusion as one of the seven at-large teams. Here is what the latest
AP Top 25 Poll looks like. We will use it as a reference point for the time being. And for even more reference, these would be the first four teams out based on the latest AP Top 25. Now that we have all that information to work with, here is what must happen for Alabama to get in.
What needs to happen for Alabama to make the College Football Playoff
Beyond just winning the Iron Bowl to finish the regular season at 9-3 overall and 5-3 in conference play, Alabama needs to root for chaos across the SEC, and college football as a whole. Assuming they are one of the first two teams out this week, they would need to get past two teams ahead of them to get in. The most obvious team to root against is
Clemson , but is it? South Carolina could leap them... For the most part, I would say rooting against
Clemson is the right way to go. Alabama's win over South Carolina would be elevated, while
Georgia 's win over Clemson would be diminished. Knocking Clemson out of playoff consideration removes more team who could conceivably make it in out of the ACC. It serves Alabama for the ACC to only get its champion between SMU and Miami or Clemson. I would say rooting for
Texas and against Texas A&M makes the most sense. Alabama would want Texas to be the SEC champion, just to avoid Texas A&M essentially bid stealing, as the Aggies are way behind them in the AP Top 25. I think seeing
Tennessee beat Vanderbilt helps the Crimson Tide out a bit. The big question: Is Alabama's only real way in for Georgia to completely fall apart at the seams? A great debate would happen if Georgia were to lose to Texas or Texas A&M in Atlanta. If the Dawgs were to lose to Georgia Tech in Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate, Georgia would have to win the SEC Championship to get in. The only problem with this is Alabama would have to continually debase its best win of the year with the hopes of taking Georgia's spot in. In reality, it needs more teams to lose. I would say seeing teams like Miami and SMU screw up in the ACC, Indiana,
Ohio State and Penn State blow it in the Big Ten and Notre Dame throwing up on itself vs. USC would be a huge help. Of those six non-SEC teams, Indiana, Notre Dame and Penn State being proven fraudulent would give Alabama an even better shot at getting in. Essentially, there is so much out of control for Alabama to make it in. Overall, Alabama really needs to see teams ranked above them like Georgia, Indiana and Clemson mess up to get in. I hate to say it, but a Tennessee loss to Vanderbilt does not help Alabama. The Vols would be 9-3 (5-3) as well, but with the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Crimson Tide. Frankly, beating a 5-6 Auburn team is not going to be enough to propel Alabama into the playoff this season. The probability gives Alabama a decent shot at getting in, but it needs two more weekends of chaos.
