MESA, Ariz. — Signing Alex Bregman would come at a steep price for the Chicago Cubs. Beyond the eventual contract terms negotiated by agent Scott Boras, the Cubs would also have to give up their second- and fifth-round draft picks, plus the bonus money attached to those selections, as well as $1 million from their international pool.

Yet few organizations are as well-positioned to absorb those costs, which would apply since Bregman declined a qualifying offer and the Cubs surpassed last year’s luxury-tax threshold by a small amount.

Right now, the Cubs have both a major-league roster projected to win close to 90 games, as well as a robust farm system, a combination that should put this big-market franchise back in playoff contention on an annual basis.

Keith Law’s farm system ranking: No. 6

Long before president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer traded away Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Báez at the 2021 deadline, the Cubs had already begun to overhaul their scouting departments and systems in player development. That process isn’t really over, either, as the Cubs have pushed ahead with an even greater emphasis on data, video and models in their evaluations.

Selling at trade deadlines, accumulating some higher draft picks and modernizing certain aspects of player development have given the Cubs a cluster of well-regarded prospects who are expected to start this season at Triple-A Iowa and be on call.

“You’re always going to have your depth tested at some point during the season,” Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins said. “(We have) players that have some high ceilings. They’re not necessarily players that we can plug and play and think they’re just going to be replacement level. Some of those guys can and will be really, really good.

“We’ve worked several years now to try to build that group to where they’re major-league ready. We’re kind of there now to where they’re all not necessarily going to be on the Opening Day roster, but they all should certainly expect to play at Wrigley at some point this year. From a player development mindset, that’s just an awesome thing to think about.”

Top-100 prospects

Just missed: Owen Caissie, an outfielder acquired in the Yu Darvish trade, and Jefferson Rojas, a 19-year-old shortstop out of the Dominican Republic.

“(A lot of) our young position player prospects finished (last season) at Triple A,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. “That means you kind of expect all of them — or a bunch of them — to break through. Some of them did — Alcántara we saw at the end of the year. Matt Shaw, Ballesteros, Owen Caissie — I expect all those guys to make their big-league debuts at some point this year. They’re the depth this year, and those are exciting depth pieces. Not maybe traditional, but that points to some of the health of the organization.

“We’re going to need one or multiple of those guys to surprise us this year. And probably one of them — or multiple of them — will play more than we’re projecting right now. So you’re going to need success from (them).”

Prospect most likely to impact 2025 team

If the Cubs don’t sign Bregman, Shaw will have the inside track to become the Opening Day third baseman. That doesn’t mean Shaw will start 150 games and become the National League Rookie of the Year. As Cubs officials would say, player development isn’t always a linear process. It wouldn’t be unusual if Shaw needed more time to work on his game at Iowa, away from the intense spotlight. But for now, Shaw will get a long look at third base.

“It will be a competition this spring,” Hoyer said. “I don’t think we’re in the world of anointing a rookie and just giving him a job. He’s going to have to win a job. But certainly there’s real opportunity there.”

Projecting Opening Day 2027 (using players currently under club control)

The reality is the Cubs are only guessing who will be in their projected bullpen when they leave for Japan in one month. And using previous seasons as a guide, that group could change dramatically by May. Pitchers get hurt. Relievers run hot and cold. It’s a long season. But in looking toward the future, the Cubs are hoping that Porter Hodge will shadow Ryan Pressly this year and learn as much as he can about what it takes to be a closer for a World Series team.

“Bullpens are unpredictable,” Counsell said. “We will have plans going into the start of spring and into the start of the season. And those plans will change.”