Kansas City will attempt to boost its record to 9-0 for the third time in franchise history in Week 10 when it hosts the rival Denver Broncos. Former Ducks quarterback Bo Nix will try to pull off the biggest upset of his first pro season.

Kansas City kept its record perfect last week by outpacing a scrappy Tampa Bay team in overtime. K.C. has won 16 of their last 17 matchups against Denver. The 5-4 Broncos will try to bounce back from a 31-point loss to the Ravens. We give you the best picks for this NFL Week 10 AFC West matchup.

Denver vs. Kansas City predictions and best bets

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

The two-time defending champions don’t always necessarily blow away teams, they just make all the right plays when it is winning time. Just once this season, Kansas City has won a game by more than 10 points.

Last week, the Broncos were annihilated by the Ravens, but their other three losses were by seven points or less. The divisional familiarity between the two teams is a factor that can often lead to close games.

Kansas City doesn’t have an explosive offense, and this year’s version of the team has been praised for its defense. But 42 points is not an overly high bar for these teams to clear.

K.C. and its opponents ran past the projected total in the last two games, and those were matchups against the limp Las Vegas offense and the offensively depleted Buccaneers.

Denver and its opponents have totaled 42 or more points in four of its past five games. Williams will not be part of any possible offensive charge, as he is averaging 3.8 yards per carry and rookie Audric Estime may start cutting into his playing time as soon as this week.

Denver vs. Kansas City moneyline odds analysis

Why Kansas City could win as the favorite

Kansas City ranks fifth in overall defense and third in run defense. That last number is another indicator of why you should take the Under on Williams’ rushing totals.

Patrick Mahomes has never lost in six career home starts vs. Denver. In the win over Tampa Bay set he season highs in completions (34), completion percentage (77.3), TD passes (3) and QB rating (116.8).

In his second game with K.C. new acquisition DeAndre Hopkins caught eight passes for 86 yards and two TDs. The arrival of Hopkins certainly helped Travis Kelce, who set a new career high with 14 receptions for a season-high 100 yards in Week 9.

Defensively, Chris Jones has registered a sack in three of his last four matchups with the Broncos. George Karlaftis has a sack in each of his past three games.

Why Denver could win as the underdog

Nix has not shied away from the intensity of AFC West matchups. He has passed for 2+ TDs in each of his last two divisional games. The ex-Oregon star is also taking good care of the ball, with no interceptions in three of his last four road games. Check out our top Bo Nix props for Week 10.

Courtland Sutton caught TD passes in both of his matchups against K.C. last season. In Week 9, he finished with a season-high 122 yards on seven receptions.

On defense, Nik Bonitto notched a tackle for a loss in each of his last six games. He has a sack in three of his past four road games. John Franklin-Myers has a sack in his last four road games.