For the majority of the sports calendar, the betting public often sides with the favorites. But March is usually the exception, as many are enticed to back plus signs and underdogs in the NCAA tournament.

“The twist for us in March compared to any other sport is that these big double-digit dogs are sometimes losers for the books,” said Seamus Magee, trading manager at BetMGM. “Saint Peters’ run was a really bad result for the book. Same with Oakland when they beat Kentucky. Last year, there was N.C. State and everyone hopped on them as soon as they won the ACC Tournament. There’s a lot of action on those bigger underdog moneylines, and it creates a scenario where we’re rooting for the favorite to win but not cover.”

This year’s bracket, however, features four No. 1 seeds in rarified air. To put it into perspective, four teams from 2002–2024 finished a campaign with a net rating of at least +35.0 on Ken Pomeroy’s trusted college basketball analytics website — 2008 Kansas, 2015 Kentucky, 2021 Gonzaga and 2024 UConn. There are four such teams this season alone that currently exceed that mark, and it’s not a surprise that they dominate the top of the national championship odds board as well.

At BetMGM, Duke and Florida are co-favorites to win the title at +350 each, followed by Auburn at +425 and Houston at +625. After those four top seeds, the next-closest team is all the way at +1600.

When looking at the early betting action, it’s all chalk so far.

“I would say the top seeds are about as strong as we’ve seen from No. 1’s in quite a while,” said Nick Bogdanovich, manager at Circa Sportsbook. “Both the masses and the sharps have been backing them in the futures pool; everyone’s got a ton of money on the favorites.”

Duke opened as +1100 preseason title co-favorites with Kansas at BetMGM and has remained in that upper echelon all season long. Those low odds have not scared off bettors, especially with transcendent freshman Cooper Flagg exceeding lofty expectations. At BetMGM, the Blue Devils lead the way in both tickets (14%) and handle (24%) to cut down the nets in San Antonio. It’s the same story at DraftKings, with Duke commanding 22% of the tickets (double the next-closest team, Auburn at 11%) and 20% of the handle (also double the next-closest team, Florida at 10%).

“Duke has definitely been a play all year long,” said Johnny Avello, race and sports operations director at DraftKings. “We raised their title odds after Cooper Flagg’s injury from +320 to +380, even though we all presumed Flagg was going to play in the NCAA Tournament. The question was how would Duke perform without him, and what would be his status upon coming back? Would he be at like 80% or 90% instead of at full strength? We saw Duke perform very well without him in the ACC Tournament, so we lowered their odds back down to +350. But will we see Flagg back at 100%? I don’t know.”

However, the team generating recent betting momentum at multiple sportsbooks is Florida. According to BetMGM, the Gators have received the most national title bets (15%) since the bracket was released. That doesn’t even include a $100,000 wager BetMGM received on Florida earlier this month, back when the Gators had +900 national title odds. That bet would pay $900,000 and is the largest reported men’s basketball national title wager from any U.S. sportsbook so far this season.

At Hard Rock Bet, the only legal sportsbook operating in Florida, roughly 36% of all title bets placed in the Sunshine State are on the Gators in the 24 hours since the bracket was announced. No other team has cracked a double-digit percentage over that timeframe.

“What we’ve really seen trickle in lately, a lot more than earlier in the season, has been Florida title action,” said Patrick Berbert, college basketball trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “We saw bets continue to come in on them during their SEC Tournament run.”

Following the No. 1 seeds on BetMGM’s betting board are the four No. 2 seeds — Alabama at +1600, Tennessee at +1800, Michigan State at +2500 and St. John’s at +2500. The most interesting storyline on the 2 line features the Big East champions, whose title odds are even lower at other sportsbooks after opening at +8000 to win it all this past offseason. The Johnnies’ betting popularity continues to rise, even though New York bettors cannot wager on N.Y. colleges under the state’s betting laws.

Fun fact: Just five New York colleges have made March Madness since the state legalized sports betting in Jan. 2022, with all of them coming in as a No. 13 seed or higher.

“St. John’s definitely would’ve been the most popular title bet for us if New Yorkers could bet on them,” Magee said. “They’re actually a small winner for us on futures liability, but a large part of that is because you can’t bet on St. John’s in New York. … We’ve been seeing St. John’s money come in this week to reach the Final Four. I think the further they get, more and more action will come since they’re such an infectious team with a legendary coach [Rick Pitino].”

At BetMGM, St. John’s is the most lopsided spread wager by tickets for any Round of 64 spread, as 83% of the bets are on the Red Storm to cover (currently -18.5) against No. 15 seed Omaha. There’s been sharp action on St. John’s at Circa as well, with this line jumping up from St. John’s -15.5 to -18.5.

Looking only at national title bets placed in New Jersey at Caesars Sportsbook, the Red Storm are first in tickets at 11% and second in handle at 10% (only behind Duke). Among Hard Rock Bet’s Florida population, St. John’s has received the second-most title bets at 9.7% (trailing Florida) since Selection Sunday.

“We have a ton of St. John’s bets to win it all,” Circa’s Bogdanovich said. Like Hard Rock Bet, Circa doesn’t operate in New York. “They’re definitely one of our losers (the sportsbook would suffer a loss). I’d say of the legitimate teams that can win it, St. John’s and Houston are our two worst outcomes.”

Then there’s UC San Diego, a No. 12 seed in its first-ever NCAA Tournament and flaunting the nation’s longest winning streak. One Nevada bettor at Caesars Sportsbook put $300 on the Tritons at 1000/1 back in January for a potential win of $300,000. The Big West champion has also been attracting strong action at multiple sportsbooks for its Round of 64 matchup against No. 5-seeded Michigan.

“Definitely all UC San Diego in this one,” Avello said. “We opened Michigan -4.5, our first move was down to -3.5, and then the next move was -2.5. Even at 2.5, there’s still some UC San Diego money. They’ve won their past 15 games. Even though Michigan won the Big Ten Tournament, bettors must think they’re not the best team in the conference. So there’s certainly been a big play on the dog, and I think that strong play will continue not just with taking the points but betting the moneyline as well.”

Line moves, big bets and more

There is one Round of 64 contest where the favorite has flipped. No. 8 Mississippi State opened as a 2-point underdog against No. 9 Baylor at Caesars, but now the Bulldogs are -1.5.

The SEC is getting a lot of respect from bettors in general. At DraftKings, 10 Round of 64 games have shifted by multiple points from their opener. Four of them were in favor of SEC teams — Mississippi State (+1.5 to -1.5 vs. Baylor), Missouri (-4.5 to -6.5 vs. Drake), Florida (-25.5 to -28.5 vs. Norfolk State) and Vanderbilt (+5.5 to +3.5 vs. Saint Mary’s).

Only one higher seed is a favorite in a Round of 64 game: No. 12 Colorado State (-2.5) against No. 5 Memphis. “I think that one will have really good two-way action, with the sharps on Memphis and the masses on Colorado State,” Bogdanovich said.

Three other noteworthy national title wagers from Caesars: $1,000 on Georgia at 750/1 (potential $750,000 win) in March, $30,000 on Auburn +350 (potential $105,000 win) in March and $10,000 on Houston +2200 (potential $220,000 win) in June.