CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (WVIR) - The University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center’s 2nd Quarterly Economic Forecast shows cause for concern.

“So, we’ve already seen some job losses this year in Virginia. We’re expecting and projecting about 30,000 job this year, which will lead to unemployment increasing to close to 5% next year,” said Weldon Cooper Center Executive Director, Eric Scrosone.

The Cooper Center’s economic forecast says that 32,000 Virginia jobs are expected to be lost this year.

“Particularly and all the forecasting model is that we are trying to inform policymakers and business owners and the overall society in Virginia about where we expect the economy to go,” said Regional Economist, João Ferreira.

Data shows unemployment rates are climbing and expected to reach nearly 4% by the end of the year. This would be Virginia’s highest unemployment rate since 2021.

“To put that in perspective, for example, in 2009, Virginia lost close to 150,000 jobs. So that was a great recession. So, it’s not catastrophic yet, but certainly we are starting to see the impact of the federal downsizing on Virginia,” said Scorsone.

Inflation is also starting to pick up again, to increase to 2.6% by the end of the year compared to 2.5% at the end of December. Economists with the Cooper Center say that is predominantly due to one factor, tariffs.

“In Virginia we predict that inflation will be not so severe as in the rest of the country,” said Ferrerira. “Business owners seeing less economic activity will think before increasing their prices as they are already seeing a decrease in their economic revenues.”

The Cooper Center will release its next report in July.

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