Gov. Glenn Youngkin remains steadfast in his belief that Virginia’s economy can deftly navigate abruptly shifting federal tariff policies and growing fears of an economic recession. Early data suggests the situation is precarious, however, and business leaders have voiced the need for greater stability and predictability.

Despite those challenges, one thing is clear: The commonwealth is fortunate to have considerable resources and successful programs in place to make this an attractive place to build a business and enjoy financial success. So long as that remains true, Virginia will be well positioned to compete, whatever may come.

The past six months have probably felt like a lifetime for members of Virginia’s business community. The White House has adopted, then abandoned, then reimposed tariffs that may or may not stand up to legal scrutiny, while at the same time enacting deep cuts to the federal workforce and Washington spending.

These policies have affected a range of economic activity throughout the commonwealth, from businesses that service federal contracts to farmers who depend on welcoming export markets for their products. People are reasonably worried about the near term, but uncertainty haunts every strategic planning decision about the future as well.

Port of Virginia data from the first quarter of 2025 suggests the full impact of the president’s tariffs have yet to be realized.

According to reporting this month by The Virginia Center for Investigative Journalism at WHRO, Virginia exports fell from $5.7 billion in the same period last year to $5 billion this year, a 12.5% decline. Canada, China and India, all countries subject to higher tariffs, imported fewer Virginia-made products than in the first quarter of 2024.

At the same time, though, imports through the port grew by 14%, largely due to businesses moving goods onshore quickly in order to skirt the imposition of tariffs. So while commerce was bustling at Virginia terminals, that growth is likely to dissipate when second-quarter numbers are released.

All of that has business leaders craving more certainty from Washington, which will allow things to stabilize in the commonwealth. Virginia Public Radio reported that members of the Virginia Advisory Committee on International Trade meeting last week expressed fears about declining capital investment and skepticism that reshoring domestic manufacturing, Trump’s stated goal of the tariff scheme, would produce fruit.

The governor has been a staunch ally of President Donald Trump and has repeatedly praised White House tariff policy as being necessary to “rebalance trade” with other nations. He has also dismissed fears that the administration will inflict lasting harm on commonwealth residents and businesses, arguing that Virginia boasts a strong financial foundation that can weather every storm.

On the latter point, he is correct. The commonwealth still holds the distinction of being the top state for business, per business cable channel CNBC, and the qualities cited for that honor — an educated and highly skilled workforce, exceptional public schools and higher education institutions, sturdy infrastructure and business-ready sites ripe for development — all remain healthy.

In May, the governor launched the “Made in Virginia” Investment Accelerator , a program he envisions to provide “concierge-style service” to businesses looking to relocate or expand here. The accelerator is hoping to hook big fish: firms that employ at least 500 people and represent at least $250 million in investment.

And this month, the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission completed a study of 10 programs that provide incentives to businesses, including the Virginia Jobs Investment Program and the Virginia Talent Accelerator Program, giving them generally strong marks for design, effectiveness and management. JLARC offered only a few recommendations that could boost their impact if adopted.

The notion that there is opportunity to be found in moments of crisis echoes throughout history, and that is certainly true for Virginia businesses facing strong headwinds due to federal policies. Thankfully, the commonwealth has built a strong foundation for growth — one proven over time — that should position Virginia well for the future when certainty returns to the equation.