MN weather: Seasonable, spotty sprinkle Thursday

MINNEAPOLIS (FOX 9) - It's been very warm over the last several weeks, so it may not be on your radar (pun intended), but some frost will be possible across a lot of the area on Thursday night.

First frost

With the overall warm pattern, it may seem counterintuitive that we could get some frost. But our warm pattern has come with very dry air, which is more efficient at warming during the day and also cooling at night. A clear sky and calm winds allow temperatures to fall quickly through the night as the colder, dense air sinks to the ground. This can lead to some chilly temperatures even in a very warm pattern.

This may seem a little early, but it's definitely not. In an average year, the northern half of the state should have experienced its first freeze by now, which has not occurred in most cases. For the Twin Cities, the average first freeze is right around Oct. 10, so we're still about a week away. While some patchy frost may be possible Thursday night and even early next week, no widespread freeze is currently in the forecast.

Northern lights possible

With a potential frost in the forecast, be sure to bundle up if you're planning to try to see the northern lights on Thursday, Oct. 3.

A massive solar flare that was ejected from the sun on Tuesday could trigger auroras that are visible in parts of the United States. An X7.1 solar flare exploded from the sun at about 6 p.m. ET on Oct. 1, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.

"This was the second-strongest flare thus far in Solar Cycle 25, only bested by an X8.7 flare on May 14 of this year," the NOAA said.

An X-class solar flare is classified as one of the most intense types of flares that the sun can produce, according to NASA.

This will increase the chances of seeing auroras in the United States, especially for northern states like Minnesota.

"There is a possibility that the approaching coronal mass ejection (CME) could "drive the aurora further south to be potentially visible from the northern tier states and upper Midwest," an NOAA spokesperson told FOX TV Stations.

Aurora could be hard to see

There is a lot less darkness in the summer. The sun generally needs to be at least 15 degrees below the horizon to get past what's considered to be nautical twilight. So, you have roughly six hours total of pitch-black to be able to see them.

However, the not-so-obvious thing that can obscure the northern lights this time of year are particulates in the atmosphere that block viewing, which would be any wildfire smoke — which will be abundant Monday night — and then high moisture levels, which can also obscure the horizons. Moisture levels will be quite high through Monday night as well.

Lastly, cloud cover could also obscure the view Monday night. Increased cloud cover will be possible late Monday as storms approach from the west. So, it's unlikely we see anything, but the chances aren't zero, so may the odds be ever in your favor.

Tips for seeing the northern lights