Georgia economic growth slow but steady, unemployment rate at 3.6%

That growth in Georgia, like in the nation overall, has come against the headwind of high interest rates that make borrowing more costly for consumers and companies alike. Overall expansion has continued, but the pace has been slower.

During the first nine months of this year, the state has added 56,200 jobs compared with nearly three times as many in the same period two years ago, the DOL said .

Rates are high because of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to tame inflation. But inflation has fallen to roughly where it was pre-pandemic, and lately the Fed has been concerned that a decelerating economy could slip into recession.

So, the Fed trimmed its benchmark rate by half a percentage point in September. Borrowing costs are still high and the Fed is expected to make more cuts in coming months.

Job gains in some areas, job losses in others

Hiring in Georgia has become more uneven.

Job growth was strong in health care, hospitality and some trade contractors, the Department of Labor said.

But jobs were lost in educational services, logistics and the sector that includes film industry jobs. Among companies recently filing layoff notices with the state was Lost Boys Interactive, which laid off 139 workers during September.

Still, new unemployment claims were down during the month and were lower than a year ago, the Department of Labor said.

During September, the number of unemployed Georgians was up by about 3,000. But the number of people in the workforce rose by slightly more and so did the number of people with jobs.

So, the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, the same as in August. That was slightly higher than a year ago, but it was still comparable to the lowest pre-pandemic jobless rates — and it was better than the current national rate of 4.1%.

Some layoffs are still in the pipeline for November and December: ABM Aviation said it will cut 353 positions, BGDC Trans Atlanta filed intent to slash 284 jobs, Shaw Industries will cut 281 positions and Customized Distribution said it is laying off 165 workers.

“In many parts of the economy, people are still hiring, but we think the unemployment rate will tick up over the next six months,” said Alan McKnight, chief investment officer of Regions Bank .

Georgia’s economic advantages

Georgia’s economy does have some structural advantages, he said. “Georgia is benefiting from trends like general in-migration, the movement of people who are coming to the state. We think that trend is going to continue.”

The last three months of the year sometimes provide an outsized portion of job growth.

Early in the pandemic, demand for logistics and retail workers was especially high because so much consumer spending had been directed toward buying goods, and that demand is much lower than it was in 2021, according to economist Allison Shrivastava at online jobs site Indeed.

Instead, there is a return to the pre-pandemic normal, she said . Job postings for the coming season are slightly higher than at the same point in 2019.

Amazon plans to add 250,000 workers in the next few months , including 1,000 in Georgia. Most of those hires will be in metro Atlanta, according to the company.

And despite continued concerns about interest rates and the uncertainty of a high-stakes national election, a number of analysts say they expect robust consumer spending these holidays.

About $1.66 trillion in seasonal spending — an increase of more than 3% from last year — is expected in the year’s final three months, according to the ICSC , a trade group representing the nation’s shopping centers.

Average, pre-pandemic: 6.0%