A strong hint at who will be the next state senator for northwest Lancaster County could come as soon as tonight and should be all-but-decided by Tuesday evening.

The Senate seat in question was vacated last week by incumbent Sen. Ryan Aument, who resigned his post after accepting a job to run U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick’s state offices.

Some 207 Republican committee members from the solidly red 36th Senatorial District are scheduled to meet over the next two days to gauge support for the four candidates seeking the GOP nomination — Lancaster County Commissioner Josh Parsons and state Rep. Brett Miller , both of East Hempfield Township, and McCaskey High School teacher Steven Heffner of Ephrata and retired truck driver Brad Witmer of Landisville.

The Hempfield and Manheim Township area committees are scheduled to meet tonight at 6 p.m. at Barn & Barrel in northern Rapho Township. The Columbia, Donegal, Elizabethtown, Manheim Central and Warwick committees will meet on Tuesday at 6:30 p.m. at the Manheim Farm Show.

Committee members who have spoken to LNP | LancasterOnline have said Parsons and Miller are the strong frontrunners in the race.

Though unbinding and unofficial, the local committee straw polls are intended to show how candidates are likely to fare at the Jan. 25 GOP meeting where the party will officially pick a nominee. Candidates who underperform in the straw polls often withdraw their candidacies if results show their odds of winning are unfavorable.

Straw polls are conducted annually as part of the county GOP’s endorsement process for party primary races. But the 36th District vacancy will be filled via special election, so the two parties are skipping the endorsement process to directly appoint candidates, forgoing a primary.

The straw polls are not open to the press, but their results are typically shared with the press once each is completed.

GOP committee members from across the 36th, which includes 25 municipalities stretching from Marietta to Ephrata and Elizabethtown to Manheim Township, are scheduled to pick the nominee at a meeting on Jan. 25.

Still to be decided is the date for the special election, which Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, acting as president of the Pennsylvania Senate, must designate by Jan. 10.

On Saturday morning, Ephrata resident Matthew Good , who resigned as a Donegal School District librarian in 2022 rather than enforce a policy restricting students’ access to books, announced he would seek the Democratic Party’s nomination.

Lancaster County Democrats had not announced a timeline for their nomination process by Sunday morning.

Committee campaign

Miller told LNP | LancasterOnline Friday that he was prepared to make his case to committee members, many of whom he has had “very positive” conversations with in recent days.

The ideals Miller said he is campaigning on match what he ran for reelection on last year: stressing fiscal conservatism in the Legislature, advancing pro-education policies, reducing government relations and promoting “safe communities.”

Miller stressed that he was not running to oppose Parsons, who he said is a “good man.”

Parsons did not respond to a request for comment.

Donegal Area Chair Tom Jones, the state representative for the 98th House District, said that at his committee’s straw poll on Tuesday, Parsons and Miller will give opening remarks and then be required to take questions from members.

Though Monday’s meeting between Hempfield and Manheim Township will account for more than 80 of the deciding committee members, Jones said the addition of Tuesday night’s results will show who the likely candidate will be.

Jones’ 98th District borders Miller’s 41st District, and the pair have worked closely in the General Assembly. But Jones endorsed Parsons last week.

“I believe Josh is the best person for the job,” Jones said Friday.

Heffner, reached by phone Friday late afternoon, said he understood he’s unlikely to be successful in securing the GOP’s nomination.

As a teacher, he said he’s looking to bring awareness among the Republican committee members about the need to improve public education funding.

“I realize there is probably the proverbial snowball’s chance, but I’m looking to get a conversation started,” Heffner said.

Witmer did not immediately respond to a request for comment. He ran unsuccessfully against Miller in the 41st District GOP primary in 2020 and attempted to put his name on the ballot to challenge Miller again last year but a court found his nomination petitions to be insufficient.

Caretaker appointee?

At least one Republican committee member from the district said that since there’s no primary for the special election, the selected candidate should commit to leaving office after finishing the remainder of Aument’s term, which ends in 2026.

During the 2024 campaign, Ron Harper Jr., of Rapho Township’s committee, said Republicans criticized the Democratic Party for selecting Vice President Kamala Harris to replace President Joe Biden on the ballot without a primary. Thus, it would be hypocritical for Republicans to select the next state senator in the 36th the same way.

“Republicans elect. We don’t select,” Harper said during a phone call with a reporter.