Public media is no stranger to calls for ending its federal funding. Every Republican president since Richard Nixon has proposed reducing, or eliminating entirely, the congressional appropriation for CPB. Public media handily won some of these fights with help from stars like Big Bird and Mister Rogers.

Others, like in 2011, were won by a hair’s breadth: That year, the House of Representatives successfully passed a bill that barred CPB from funding NPR after a conservative activist released a controversial undercover video . It was later rejected by the Democratic-controlled Senate.

Now, however, the threat to end federal funding for public media seems much more likely to succeed. After months of FCC investigations, House and Senate bill proposals, and subcommittee hearings, the White House is reportedly planning to ask Congress on Monday to rescind CPB’s federal funding for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 — about $1.1 billion. Even with some of public media’s past Republican allies still in office, the fate of the system is unclear.

In the meantime, public media’s leadership, employees and audience are all searching for answers. Which entities would be most affected if federal funding were cut? What areas would the rescission affect the most? What will happen to stations? As it turns out, the answers to most of these questions can be gleaned from two sources: publicly available financial station records and an internal study commissioned by NPR in 2011.

Public media’s finances

One of the greatest strengths of public media is its commitment to financial transparency. Subsection 396 of Title 47 in the U.S. Code mandates that public media stations make their most recent independently audited financial statements available to the public. It also mandates that stations with a total revenue of more than $300,000 make available an annual financial report to the public, or an annual financial statement report for stations with total revenue of $300,000 or less. Each document is important because it shows exactly how much a station made, received in federal funding and spent in a fiscal year.

CPB apportions funding for public media two years in advance, most of which is in the form of Community Service Grants. These general-purpose grants keep the wheels of every public media station in the U.S. spinning. CPB also gives out several other types of grants to public media stations, networks and producers, but CSGs make up the majority of CPB spending.

A simple metric for understanding how much a public media station relies on federal funding is dividing how much it received in a fiscal year by total revenue. Currently, the most recent AFRs and FSRs available from the most stations is from fiscal year 2023. After compiling every publicly available financial document from that fiscal year (about 87% of all public media stations), each station’s reliance on federal funding was calculated by adding the total amount of funding from CPB (CSGs and otherwise), as well as the total amount of funding from other federal sources, and dividing that amount by the station’s total revenue, as reported to CPB in each AFR and FSR.

The system at a glance

Among the 467 surveyed, stations relied on federal funding (again, from any federal source, not just CPB) for an average of 16% of their total revenue in FY23. Public television stations had the highest average reliance at 18%, while public radio stations had an average reliance of 14%. NPR and PBS stations relied on federal funding for an average of 13% and 18%, respectively.

The five stations most dependent on federal funding as a percentage of their FY23 revenue — Oregon’s KCUW, New Mexico’s KSHI, and KUHB, KDSP and KNSA in Alaska — were all radio stations. Worryingly, these were the only stations in the study with a reliance of 80% or higher, and four had a reliance of over 90%. The most dependent public television stations — Tennessee’s West TN PBS, Texas’ Basin PBS, Illinois’ WQPT PBS, Kansas’ Smoky Hills PBS and California’s KEET — relied on federal funds for 40% or more of their total revenue.

Zooming out, the state with the highest average dependence on federal funding among its public broadcasters was West Virginia, followed closely by Alaska, New Mexico and Montana. All but one of these states fall into the West region as identified by the U.S. Census Bureau . It shouldn’t be surprising, therefore, that stations in the West had the highest average reliance on federal funding of any other region in the U.S.

Using NPR’s confidential study to map out what’s next

NPR came up with two key findings. First, member stations relied on federal funding for an average of 14% of their total revenue. The network also ran three predictive models to see how many stations would close if federal funding ended: one scenario in which every station with a reliance of 10% or more closed, one in which every station with a reliance of 15% or more closed, and one in which every station with a reliance of 20% or more closed. In these scenarios, 69%, 49%, and 24% of stations were identified as being at risk, respectively.

Stepping back into the present day, there are a few hopeful signs for stations. Our FY23 data showed that the average reliance on federal funding among the network’s radio stations since 2011 only slightly decreased, from 14% to 13%. However, if we consider the difference in median reliance among NPR stations — that is, the exact middle number in the datasets — there’s a stark difference: The median reliance in 2011 was the same as the average, 14%, but the median reliance in FY23 was just 8%. That means that, on the whole, more NPR stations became less reliant. Compare that to PBS’ average and median reliance, which were 18% and 16%, respectively. A higher distribution of NPR’s stations rely less on federal funding, while PBS’ stations are more evenly distributed. Good news for NPR, not-so-great news for PBS.

Additionally, the number of member stations that would be lost in scenarios where 10%, 15% or 20% reliance meant closure significantly decreased. In 2011, between 24% and 69% of their stations would be lost; now, it would be between 15% and 34%. The study urgently recommended that NPR stations become less dependent on federal funding, and it’s inarguable that in part they’ve succeeded.

But among the data are clear warning signs. The comparison between average and median reliance on federal funding among NPR stations shows a stark contrast between what you might call the haves and the have-nots. As mentioned before, more NPR stations became less reliant, but the gulf between the average and median means that some stations became even more reliant than they were in 2011.

Furthermore, the radio stations that were left behind seem to be ones that serve rural and diverse populations. When isolated, NPR stations that are also part of the African-American Public Radio Consortium had an average reliance on federal funding of 26%. twice the overall average. NPR stations that are a part of Native Public Media, meanwhile, had a 53% average reliance. Most of these stations would not be able to survive the blow of losing federal funding.

Where do we go from here?

It’s clear that losing federal funding would be detrimental to all of public media. If every surveyed station that relied on federal funding for 20% or more of its total revenue in FY23 closed, the US would lose 68 public radio stations and 49 public television stations. More critically, 35 of the 117 stations that would close in this scenario are members of either Native Public Media or the African-American Public Radio Consortium.

Across the country, stations are seeing an increase in “reactionary” donations , but those increases are almost certainly proportional to the population served and the wealth concentrated therein. Stations in remote areas of Alaska or New Mexico have no broad donor base to rely on and often fewer resources to chase private grants. If public media is to survive a halt in federal funding, maybe the first step is identifying the most vulnerable stations and how much public media values those audiences. Perhaps it’s time for a coalition of the nation’s wealthiest public media entities and donors to prepare to step into CPB’s shoes.