Farmers in southern Australia are closely monitoring the situation in the Indian Ocean in terms of weather patterns for the growing season, with the potential for a beneficial weather pattern developing over late winter growing stronger.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said yesterday in its fortnightly climate driver update that seven out of the eight models it surveyed were predicting an Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) negative event to form from July onwards.

An IOD negative is correlated with wetter than average conditions over many parts of Australia, with some regions, such as north-west Victoria having just a strong a response as with the better known La Nina phenomenon.

The IOD had been in positive territory in recent weeks but has dropped back to the neutral range of late.

While an IOD negative would be welcome in the critical late winter / early spring period for grain producers, the BOM cautioned that in spite of the models nearly all saying the same thing there was a low skill level in predicting further than a month or two out at this time of year.

On the other side of the continent the El Nino / Southern Oscillation is neutral and is expected to remain neutral until at least October, meaning it is unlikely to have a large bearing on spring weather conditions.

With the potential of an IOD negative to look forward to there is also positive news for drought-impacted regions in the short-term with the potential for a series of cold fronts to roll across South Australia and Victoria from Monday onwards.

Further along, there is also significant interest in a weather system set to develop off WA's Kimberley Coast.

BOM modelling for the next seven days suggests an unseasonable fall of up to 100mm, while further out to a fortnight, some climate models are forecasting up to 400mm.

From there, the models are split as to where the remnants of the system will track, with some pointing towards it heading south-east to deliver solid totals in SA and Victoria.