As bad as the Baltimore Orioles look, all of the usual “it’s early” caveats still apply — to a point.

Unless the Orioles get going soon, the questions they face will only grow more uncomfortable. Should Brandon Hyde remain manager? Should Mike Elias remain general manager? Is owner David Rubenstein more interested in being the subject of a bobblehead night, the way he was on April 19, or fixing the team?

Oh, and here’s perhaps the biggest one: Will the Orioles be sellers at the trade deadline during a season in which, coming off back-to-back playoff appearances, they should be taking the next step forward?

The Orioles’ 10-17 record is the third-worst in the majors, ahead of only the Chicago White Sox (7-21) and Colorado Rockies (4-23). Their 5.83 rotation ERA is also the third-worst, ahead of only the Miami Marlins and Rockies.

When a team performs this poorly, concerns about young players pressing, clubhouse leadership missing and the manager failing to get the most out of his talent are all fair. But the Orioles’ predicament is not all that complicated. Starting pitching is their biggest problem, and nothing else is close.

Practically the entire industry saw this coming after the Orioles lost ace right-hander Corbin Burnes to free agency and then added to their collection of mid- to back-of-the rotation types by signing right-handers Charlie Morton, 41, and Tomoyuki Sugano, 35.

Morton has been horrid. Sugano has been the Orioles’ top starter. But with injuries to so many others, from Zach Eflin to Grayson Rodríguez to Kyle Bradish, the rotation is drowning. Blowing leads late can deflate a club. For hitters as young as the Orioles’, falling behind early night after night might be even more demoralizing.

Hyde is an easy target when his team is 44-57 since last July 7, including their two losses to the Kansas City Royals in the wild-card round. The Orioles made changes to their coaching staff, advanced scouting staff and medical staff after that defeat, a possible precursor to a change in managers. Still, the person most responsible is Elias, whose trade for one year of Burnes in Feb. 2024 was his sole move to acquire high-end starting pitching.

Elias has not developed such pitching, focusing more on hitters – and mostly nailing his picks – at the top of the draft. He also has not signed it in free agency despite operating with more financial latitude under Rubenstein, who led a group that bought the team in March 2024. The Orioles increased their payroll by $66 million last offseason. They also made a four-year, $180 million offer to Burnes, but the pitcher preferred a six-year, $210 million deal with deferrals to play at home with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

A trade for Garrett Crochet, while costly in prospects, would have been monumental for the Orioles’ rotation. A pitching program to identify and maximize modest free-agent additions the way the New York Mets do also would help. The Orioles wanted Jeff Hoffman to be their version of the Mets’ Clay Holmes, converting from a reliever to a starter. But like the Atlanta Braves, they reportedly backed out of a deal for Hoffman after a review of his medical records.

Lacking a competent rotation, the Orioles’ only option is to outscore opponents. Their offense, though, is performing below league average. Injuries at various times and to varying degrees — to outfielder Colton Cowser, shortstop Gunnar Henderson and third baseman Jordan Westburg, among others — are part of the problem. So is bad luck, with some of their hitters’ expected numbers exceeding their actual performance.

The Orioles’ position player group, however, is largely a collection of young, first-round picks unaccustomed to adversity. The team lacks a strong veteran, middle-of-the-order presence to provide those players with cover. Even when the Orioles had Anthony Santander last season — the productive Santander, not the version currently struggling in Toronto — they needed another slugger down the stretch.

Instead, Elias seemingly has banked on his young players to progress in linear fashion, a strategy that carries its own risk. The GM’s intent is for the Orioles to be better in 2025 than in ‘24, better in 2026 than ‘25, and so forth. His reliance on young talent is understandable, considering the Orioles play in baseball’s fifth-smallest TV market. But for the second straight year, his roster construction is proving to be flawed.

The three free-agent hitters Elias signed in the offseason, catcher Gary Sánchez and outfielders Tyler O’Neill and Ramón Laureano, have been early disappointments. O’Neill went on the injured list Saturday with neck inflammation. The Orioles do not believe the problem is serious. But this is O’Neill’s 15th career trip to the IL. He has played more than 113 games in a season only once, in 2021.

OK, let’s take a breath.

For all of the Orioles’ issues, their situation is not hopeless. The Houston Astros were 7-19 last April 25. The Mets were 24-35 on June 2. Both those teams rallied to make the postseason. The Orioles, at least in theory, could do the same.

After getting swept in Detroit, the Orioles return home Monday to face the first-place New York Yankees, who also are dealing with multiple issues, and the Kansas City Royals, who were 8-14 before winning six of their last seven. After that, Baltimore’s schedule eases considerably.

The Orioles’ opponents in May include the Minnesota Twins (two series), Los Angeles Angels, Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago White Sox. Of course, the Orioles lost two of three in Washington last week, scoring a total of five runs.

The starting pitching, though, soon might stabilize, easing the burden on the Orioles’ hitters. Eflin is working his way back from a right lat strain. Right-hander Kyle Gibson, a late signee, should be ready shortly. The oft-injured Grayson Rodríguez, also dealing with a right lat strain, figures to return at some point, while Bradish and Tyler Wells, coming off major elbow surgeries, might contribute in the second half.

The back of the bullpen looks to be one of the Orioles’ strengths, particularly after free-agent addition Andrew Kittredge returns from a left knee debridement, potentially in late May. But for the pitching in general, better defense is a must. While the sample sizes are still relatively small, the Orioles are down from last season in both Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved, rating well below average.

Is an Orioles turnaround possible? Sure. Would anyone bet on it based on the way the team is playing? Absolutely not. Which raises the question of how Elias might approach the deadline, which admittedly is still three months away.

If the Orioles fail to ignite, they could become an intriguing seller, trading potential free agents such as Eflin, center fielder Cedric Mullins and reliever Seranthony Domínguez. Such a pivot, however, would further shrink their competitive window, which already is growing smaller as their young position players get closer to free agency. The Orioles have yet to sign any to extensions.

Elias surely does not want to sell. The idea at this point was for the team to advance, not retreat. But if the Orioles cannot advance, then Rubenstein will need to develop more of an edge. Since taking over in 2024, he has acted like more of a fan, spraying fans in Camden Yards’ Splash Zone last season, telling his players “we have the best talent in baseball” after they won this year’s home opener.

The usual “it’s early” caveats apply. It’s always darkest before the dawn, and all that. But the Orioles are far from their expected new morning. They need to recover quickly, or in more ways than one, they might be saying goodnight.