The recently completed Wheat Quality Council hard red winter wheat tour has projected a Kansas crop at 338.5 million bushels. Aaron Harries, vice president of research and operations at Kansas Wheat, said the estimate was about 7 million bushels below the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s May 1 report. The second week of May provides a more accurate look at the potential and attendees could see a crop that was further developed, Harries said. The Wheat Quality Tour was May 12 to 15 and had 67 attendees. The tour is a coordinated effort by breeders and processors dedicated to improving wheat quality. Statewide, based on May 1 conditions, Kansas’ 2025 winter wheat crop was forecast at 345 million bushels, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service, with average yield forecast at 50 bushels per acre. Acreage to be harvested for grain is estimated at 6.9 million acres. NASS reported Kansas planted 7.4 million acres. A year ago, NASS reported Kansas’ crop at 307.5 million bushels as farmers averaged 43 bushels per acre. Harries said he could see statewide yields potentially exceeding 50 bushels per acre. Disease pressure from the wheat streak mosaic virus complex and drought played a part in how attendees estimated the size of the crop. “It’s a tale of two different crops,” Harries said in comparing this year’s crop in two regions. The first day, tour-goers saw the impact of the drought particularly north of U.S. Highway 36. Growers in Norton and Oberlin a year ago had really good crop, but this year drought has hit the affected the crop, he said. That was a similar observation that also was observed in about two-thirds of counties along U.S. 24. “It’s clear they haven’t got the rain in time,” he said of the northern corridor. “There’s going to be a harvestable wheat crop, but it’s definitely not going to be as it was in certain areas of northwest and northcentral Kansas last year,” Harries said. The mood of wheat growers was realistic under the current economic climate, he said. “It’s pretty tough,” Harries said about the profit potential. With current prices growers would need to harvest at least 60 to 70 bushels an acre to generate a profit.
Potential for good wheat
There are two sectors that tour-goers
noted an opportunity for above the 50 bushel per acre threshold. The central Kansas corridor of Wichita to Salina was one, he said. The best wheat Harries observed was in the western part of Kansas in the southwest. South of Scott City to Garden City and then east to Dodge City appeared to be the most promising. In the southwest Kansas region, there was one tour estimate for one of the observed fields to reach 92 bushels per acre.
Disease pressure
Farther east of Dodge City drought pressure became more noticeable again, Harries said. East of Scott City was where the impact of wheat streak diseases was the most noticeable. “We’ve seen some fields that had some pretty bad wheat streak in them,” he said. “Some of the spots were very localized. You’re probably going to find a presence of it in most fields if you look hard enough, but the severe reports are fairly localized.” Growers who used resistant varieties were having more success counteracting the disease, Harries said. “Farmers need to think about the varieties they are going to plant and choose your varieties wisely.” It is also a reminder that growers need to address volunteer wheat in the late summer and other areas where the curl mites can survive. From Jetmore east to Larned and south of Pratt drought conditions were observable because the wheat was short. Farther south of Wichita and east of Meade also had a significant dry belt. Although drought has been an important story, a silver lining is that abandonment acres are not going to be significant. Harries said the start date was about four weeks away. “Nothing too early or too late,” he said, adding one more good rain could benefit the crop throughout the state. “We will be having a slightly bigger crop,” Harries said. “It’s an upward trend in Kansas, but it won’t be a bin buster.”
Nearby states
The southern area of Nebraska has also been really dry and expectations are for a smaller crop and in some areas, growers did tear out their wheat and will look to plant a spring crop, Harries said. Colorado and Oklahoma are expected to have a similar-sized crops like they did in 2024. In addition to Kansas reports, scouts from Nebraska and Colorado met the tour group in Colby to give reports from their states, Kansas Wheat reported. Royce Schaneman from Nebraska Wheat Board reported that the Nebraska crop is estimated at 34 million bushels. Yield is estimated at 40 bushels per acre. A report from Colorado estimated the crop at 65 million bushels, based on a yield of 35 bushels per acre and 2.1 million acres planted. The Oklahoma wheat crop is estimated at 101.2 million bushels with an average of 35.9 bushels per acre, according to the Oklahoma Wheat Commission.
