Kentucky Derby Long Shot Odds: Underdogs & Sleeper Bets for 2025

Part of the enduring appeal of the Kentucky Derby is how seemingly any horse can win it. Ten horses are listed as 30-1 long shots in Derby 151, and we'll analyze the case for each one to see where the best underdog and sleeper bets lie.

Casual Kentucky Derby bettors will be keying in on the wagering favorites like Journalism, but veteran horseplayers know how to scan the Kentucky Derby odds and uncover the best value bets in the Run for the Roses.

Let's take a look at the Kentucky Derby long shots for 2025 and figure out which three-year-olds are offering the best bang for your buck on Saturday, May 3.

Kentucky Derby long shots and underdog bets for 2025

These 10 Kentucky Derby horses have long odds but shouldn't be overlooked. Learn more below and see where they will stack up in the Kentucky Derby post positions .

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Kentucky Derby long shot pick

If you're searching for a long shot to place a win wager on in the 2025 Kentucky Derby, No. 16 Coal Battle is the most logical option. He's demonstrated a surplus of grit in piling up four wins over a five-race spell. He can also win from either close-up or a few lengths back, and having tactical versatility in a race like the Derby is huge.

Neoequos

Neoequos has punched above his weight at Gulfstream Park on the Florida road to the Kentucky Derby, taking third in both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby as a double-digit long shot, and lures jockey Flavien Prat (assuming Baeza does not draw into the field). But added distance combined with the waters getting deeper will likely be his undoing.

Final Gambit

Final Gambit outran his 15-1 odds in the Jeff Ruby Steaks when last seen, improving dramatically in the speed-figure department. However, he'll need to improve even more while passing the dirt test to run with the best of the bunch. Final Gambit fans can at least point to trainer Brad Cox in his corner.

American Promise

American Promise catches the eye at first glance after romping to victory in the Virginia Derby, but the case for this D. Wayne Lukas colt quickly falls apart upon closer scrutiny. It took six starts for him to break his maiden, and he was up the track in both the Grade III Southwest and Grade II Risen Star earlier in the campaign.

Admire Daytona

Admire Daytona was all-out to win what looked like a slow rendition of the UAE Derby, a race that has yet to Kentucky Derby winner. It was a discouraging sign that the runner-up in that race bypassed an automatic bid to the Run for the Roses. This Japanese colt was beaten by Luxor Cafe in both prior meetings.

Flying Mohawk

Flying Mohawk is trying dirt for the first time in the Kentucky Derby following a distant second-place finish in the Jeff Ruby Steaks behind Final Gambit. That loss interrupted a two-race winning streak for the son of Breeders' Cup Mile winner Karakontie. The pedigree does not suggest he'll get 10 furlongs on dirt this Saturday, and he's well behind the top contenders on speed figures.

Publisher

Publisher is the lone maiden in the Derby field, as he's 0-for-7 lifetime. His closing into a frantic pace in the Arkansas Derby for second helped punch his ticket into the field for North America's all-time winningest trainer, Steve Asmussen, who is somehow still searching for his first Derby triumph. Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has the call on this son of American Pharoah.

Render Judgement

Render Judgement snuck into the Derby field due in large part to his distant second-place finish in the Virginia Derby. He was also a well-beaten third in the Gun Runner Stakes to kick off his sophomore season, but has finished fifth or worse in his other three stakes attempts.

Coal Battle

Coal Battle is the "little engine that could" of the Kentucky Derby field. Backed by largely unknown connections, he took the Rebel Stakes two starts ago before placing third in the Arkansas Derby. He may not "wow" you on speed figures, but he's won more races (five) than any horse in the Derby field.

Chunk of Gold

Chunk of Gold should be heard from late in the Kentucky Derby. He has rallied into second in each of his last two starts, including the Louisiana Derby, and has the pedigree to both relish going long and improve with seasoning. He's not far off on speed figures, either.

Owen Almighty

Owen Almighty, sired by noted sprint influence Speightstown, was originally pointed to the Pat Day Mile on the Derby Day undercard when the year began. But after a runaway win in the 1 1/16th-mile Tampa Bay Derby, his connections caught "Derby fever." Even a sixth-place finish in the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass Stakes did nothing to convince his owners to pivot back to the Pat Day, which is where this colt truly belongs.