Selection Sunday and the unveiling of the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket prompted a change atop the men’s basketball national championship odds.

Before the bracket was even revealed, Florida vaulted over Auburn and Duke on the betting board after winning the SEC tournament title over Tennessee.

Despite the betting favorite flip, plenty of other strong contenders are in the mix with Florida. The aforementioned Tigers and Blue Devils have been in the title picture all season. Houston, meanwhile, earned its third consecutive No. 1 seed after a strong showing winning the Big 12 tournament.

A loaded SEC that pushed a record 14 teams into the field also sees Tennessee and Alabama as strong No. 2 seeds, along with two deep squads in St. John’s and Michigan State.

Florida makes its move to the top



On the heels of a six-game winning streak against all NCAA Tournament competition, Florida enters the tournament on a roll. The Gators’ title odds jumped from +450 to +350 following their convincing win over the Vols.

Since the start of March, Florida knocked off Alabama (twice), Tennessee, Texas A&M, Missouri and Ole Miss — mimicking the type of strenuous six-game stretch that Florida could face in the NCAA Tournament.

In a strong West Regional lined with potential roadblocks, Florida and its No. 1 offense will be tested. Two-time defending national champion and No. 8 seed UConn presents a dangerous possible matchup in the Round of 32. Big East champion St. John’s and Texas Tech form credible No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, complete with elite defenses.

It won’t be an easy path for the Gators, but there’s a lot to like about Florida’s recent success against quality competition.

Other No. 1 Seeds stay with Florida



Keeping pace with Florida in the title odds are the other three No. 1 seeds: Auburn, Duke and Houston.

Despite falling in the SEC tournament semifinals to Tennessee, the Tigers earned the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed after an outstanding season. Auburn remains a credible title threat even after dropping from +340 to +400 after Florida’s SEC tournament win.

Auburn’s tournament path includes a potential matchup against No. 8 seed Louisville in Lexington and a possible rematch in the Sweet 16 against No. 4 seed and SEC conference foe Texas A&M — who defeated the Tigers in College Station on March 4.

The major question for Duke is the health of star freshman Cooper Flagg. The potential National Player of the Year turned his ankle during Duke’s ACC quarterfinal win over Georgia Tech on Thursday afternoon and sat out the rest of the tournament.

Despite Flagg’s uncertain status, Duke’s odds stayed steady at +360.

“Cooper Flagg’s health is a question mark but we expect action to pour in on Duke if Flagg can play,” Seamus Magee, Trading Manager at BetMGM, said. “Along with Duke, Florida and Michigan State are teams we don’t want to cut down the nets. BetMGM projects this to be the most bet tournament in our history, with the sportsbook offering more markets than ever before.”

The Blue Devils deserve credit for winning the ACC tournament without Flagg. Duke still needs Flagg healthy and on the floor to reach its ceiling in March.

As a No. 1 seed, the Blue Devils likely wouldn’t need a fully healthy Flagg until a second-round matchup against Mississippi State or Baylor.

Even if Flagg returns healthy, Duke hasn’t faced many top-25 caliber teams since conference play started. Although Duke defeated fellow No. 1 seed Auburn in non-conference play, the Blue Devils aren’t nearly as battle-tested as the other top seeds.

Houston (+600) rounds out the No. 1 seeds after capturing the Big 12 tournament title. Riding a 13-game winning streak, the Cougars are a No. 1 seed for the third straight year. However, skepticism remains about Houston’s ability to make a deep run after back-to-back early exits in the Sweet 16.

This year’s Cougars are Kelvin Sampson’s best offensive team during his Houston tenure. But after non-conference losses to Auburn and Alabama, there remain doubts about Houston’s ability to win a big game.

SEC teams lead the second-tier teams



A pair of No. 2 seeds from the SEC make up the second tier of national title odds.

After a Final Four appearance last season, Alabama (+1200) remains dangerous in the East Regional. With a high ceiling strong enough to beat No. 1 seeds Houston and Auburn during the regular season, Alabama’s potent top-five offense could get hot at any moment.

Tennessee (+1400) made waves knocking out Auburn in the SEC tournament semifinals. The Vols also defeated No. 1 seed Florida and No. 2 seed Alabama during conference play this season with the No. 3 defense in the country as its backbone.

Third-tier contenders start to drop



Elite defenses and questionable perimeter shooting are the story for No. 2 seeds Michigan State and St. John’s (both +2200).

A top-five defense and significant depth are keys for the Spartans, who aim to overcome poor 30 percent 3-point shooting (No. 327 nationally).

St. John’s owns the No. 1 defense, per KenPom, but also shoots 30 percent from distance (No. 330 nationally). The star power of RJ Luis, Kadary Richmond and Zuby Ejiofor could be enough to push the Red Storm to the Final Four out of the West Regional.

The market really starts to drop after the No. 2 seeds.

Iowa State (+3000) is the highest-regarded No. 3 seed — perhaps due to injuries derailing the middle of the season. The Cyclones had a disappointing loss to BYU in the Big 12 tournament but are a team to watch in the South Regional after a Sweet 16 run last season.

Texas Tech (+3500) elevated from +4000 after earning a No. 3 seed in the West Regional. Kentucky (+4000) is an interesting No. 3 seed in the Midwest Regional after sweeping the season series against No. 2 seed Tennessee during the SEC regular season.

CONTINUE READING
RELATED ARTICLES