Municipals were firmer Friday ahead of another robust new-issue calendar, as U.S. Treasury yields fell and equities were higher at the close. "Even though we are not out of the woods, we have likely seen the worst for our market," said Barclays strategists Mikhail Foux and Grace Cen. "The recent market moves in April during the tariff stress event likely priced in a higher inflation scenario [in the muni market] with the 10-year AAA rising as high as 3.89% at one point," said BofA strategists. The 40-plus basis point rally since can almost entirely be credited to the decline in volatility, as "we are still in the seasonally weak month of April," they said. Trading activity has been "much less eventful" this week compared to recent weeks, with the primary market being the main focus, Barclays strategists noted. USTs rallied only several basis points, with the gains mostly on the long end of the curve, they said. High-quality tax-exempts erased most of last week's gains at the start of the week, but largely recovered by the end of the week, Barclays strategists said. "Easing tariffs, a slowing economy and an improved supply/demand outlook for munis in May and onward should drive muni market pricing going forward," BofA strategists said. The two-year ratio Friday was at 80%, the five-year at 80%, the 10-year at 81% and the 30-year at 94%, according to Municipal Market Data's 3 p.m. EDT read. ICE Data Services had the two-year at 79%, the five-year at 78%, the 10-year at 78% and the 30-year at 93% at 4 p.m. There has been a "marked improvement" in muni-UST ratios, which are seven to eight percentage points lower than the highs reached during the second week of April, BofA strategists said. "Further improvement of muni rates and muni ratios should be expected for all maturities in May," they said. More stability is ahead, and "fund flows should finally return to positive territory, which should provide additional market support, Barclays strategists said. However, supply is expected to remain robust over the next two months, as the market is on pace for one of the heaviest supply periods in recent history, they said. "But investor reception should get a bit warmer: the average tax-exempt net issuance was just $9 billion in May, $5 billion in June and [negative] $7 billion in July since 2020 in stark contrast to about $35 billion this April, Barclays strategists said. New-issue calendar
Issuance for the week of April 28 is estimated at $10.338 billion, with $8.389 billion of negotiated deals and $1.949 billion of competitive deals on tap. The District of Columbia leads the negotiated calendar with a $1.49 billion deal, followed by the East Bay Municipal Utility District with a $1.094 billion deal. The competitive calendar is led by Delaware with $315.77 million of GOs. AAA scales
MMD's scale was little narrowly mixed: The one-year was at 2.97% (+2) and 3.00% (unch) in two years. The five-year was at 3.12% (unch), the 10-year at 3.44% (unch) and the 30-year at 4.46% (-2) at 3 p.m. The ICE AAA yield curve was bumped one to four basis points: 3.01% (-1) in 2026 and 3.00% (-1) in 2027. The five-year was at 3.06% (-4), the 10-year was at 3.39% (-3) and the 30-year was at 4.43% (-4) at 4 p.m. The S&P Global Market Intelligence municipal curve was little changed: The one-year was at 2.96% (unch) in 2025 and 2.99% (unch) in 2026. The five-year was at 3.12% (unch), the 10-year was at 3.44% (unch) and the 30-year yield was at 4.47% (-1) at 4 p.m. Bloomberg BVAL was bumped up to two basis points: 2.88% (unch) in 2025 and 2.95% (-1) in 2026. The five-year at 3.11% (-2), the 10-year at 3.42% (-2) and the 30-year at 4.46% (-2) at 4 p.m. Treasuries saw gains throughout the curve. The two-year UST was yielding 3.765% (-4), the three-year was at 3.759% (-4), the five-year at 3.886% (-5), the 10-year at 4.265% (-5), the 20-year at 4.748% (-6) and the 30-year at 4.733% (-4) near the close. Primary to come
The District of Columbia (Aa1/AAA//) is set to price Thursday $1.491 billion of income tax secured revenue bonds, consisting of $1.19 billion of tax-exempt refunding bonds, Series 2025A, serials 2026-2045, term 2050, and $301.08 million of taxables, Series 2025B, serials 2026-2040, terms 2045, 2050. Wells Fargo. The East Bay Municipal Utility District, California, (Aaa/AAA//) is set to price Thursday $1.095 billion of water system revenue bonds, consisting of $256.505 million of green Series 2025A bonds, serials 2040-2045, terms 2049, 2055; $473.455 million of Series 2025B refunding bonds, serials 2026-2045; and $364.55 million of Series 2025C refunding bonds, serials 2036-2040. Wells Fargo. The Black Belt Energy Gas District (/A-//) is set to price Thursday $659.2 million of gas project revenue bonds, 2025 Series A, serials 2027-2032, 2055. J.P. Morgan. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (Aa3/AA-/AA-/) is set to price Tuesday $498.9 million of consolidated refunding bonds, two hundred forty-eighth series, serials 2026-2045, terms 2050, 2055. J.P. Morgan. Oregon (Aa1/AA+/AA+/) is set to price Wednesday $379.42 million of higher education GOs, consisting of $183.34 million of Article XI-F(1) projects and refunding bonds, Series F, serials 2025-2045, and $196.08 million of Article XI-G(1) projects and refunding bonds, Series G, serials 2025-2045, term 2050. BofA Securities. The state is also set to price Wednesday $246.87 million of GO interstate bridge replacement project bonds, 2025 Series E, serials 2026-2045, term 2049. BofA Securities. The Colorado Educational and Cultural Facilities Authority is set to price Wednesday $291.71 million of the Stanley Project cultural facilities revenue bonds, consisting of $210.235 million of senior lien bonds Series 2025A-2, term 2059; $31.29 million taxable senior lien bonds, Series 2025A-2, term 2045; and $50.185 million of subordinate lien bonds, Series 2025B, term 2059. RBC Capital Markets. The Indiana Finance Authority (/AAA/AAA/) is set to price Wednesday $274.61 million of green state revolving fund program refunding bonds, Series 2025C, serials 2026-2046. Truist. The city of St. Paul Housing and Redevelopment Authority, Minnesota, (A2/A//) is set to price Tuesday $271.305 million of HealthPartners Obligated Group health care facilities revenue refunding bonds, serials 2025-2035. Piper Sandler. Brown University Health is set to price Wednesday through the Massachusetts Development Finance Authority (/BBB+/BBB+/) $245.825 million of revenue bonds, consisting of $160.825 million of fixed-rate mode Series 2025A bonds and $85 million of long-term mode Series 2025B bonds. Morgan Stanley. The hospital system is also set to price $154.975 million of taxable Series 2025C bonds. Morgan Stanley. The University of the North Texas System Board of Regents (Aa2//AA/AA/) is set to price Tuesday $215.05 million of tax-exempt revenue financing system refunding and improvement bonds, Series 2025A, serials 2026-2045, term 2050. Wells Fargo. The board of regents is also set to price $108.615 million taxable revenue financing system refunding and improvement bonds, Series 2025B, serials 2026-2040, term 2045. Raymond James. The Northside Independent School District, Texas, (Aaa//AAA/) is set to price Tuesday $200.935 million of PSF-insured unlimited tax school building bonds, serials 2026-2045, terms 2050, 2055. Stifel. The Tennessee Housing Development Agency (Aa1/AA+//) is set to price Wednesday $200 million of non-AMT social residential finance program bonds, Issue 2025-1A, serials 2026-2037, terms 2040, 2045, 2050, 2055, 2056. RBC Capital Markets. The Build NYC Resource Corp. (/BBB+//) is set to price Thursday $196 million of TRIPS Obligated Group senior airport facilities revenue bonds. J.P. Morgan. Howell Public Schools, Michigan, (/AA//) is set to price Tuesday $183.865 million of 2025 school building and site bonds, Series II, serials 2026-2045, insured by the Michigan School Bond Qualification and Loan Program. J.P. Morgan. The Rhode Island Student Loan Authority (/AA//) is set to price Wednesday $125 million of senior education loan revenue bonds, consisting of $100 million of AMT Series 2025A bonds, serials 2029-2034, term 2044, and $25 million of taxable Series 2025-1 bonds, serial 2044. RBC Capital Markets. The Denver Health and Hospital Authority, Colorado, (/BBB/BBB/) is set to price Thursday $116.37 million of healthcare revenue refunding bonds, Series 2025A, terms 2045, 2050, 2055. Piper Sandler. The Modesto High School District, California, (Aa2///) is set to price Tuesday $113 million of Election of 2022 GOs, Series B, serials 2026-2045, terms 2050, 2054. Piper Sandler. Prince William Water, Virginia, (Aaa/AAA//) is set to price Tuesday $105.925 million of water and sewer system revenue and refunding bonds, serials 2026-2055. Raymond James. The Oklahoma Housing Finance Agency (Aaa///) is set to price Tuesday $100 million of non-AMT homeownership loan program single-family mortgage revenue bonds, serials 2026-2037, terms 2040, 2045, 2049, 2056. Raymond James. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (Aaa/AAA/AAA/) is set to price Wednesday $100 million of general revenue bonds, Series 2012B. Wells Fargo. Competitive
Delaware is set to sell $315.77 million of GOs at 10:45 a.m. Tuesday. Shelby County, Tennessee, is set to sell $275.91 million of GO public improvement and school bonds, 2025 Series A, at 11 a.m. Tuesday. Pasadena, California, is set to sell $195 million of Central Library Project GOs, at noon Tuesday. Mesa, Arizona, is set to sell $156.4 million of GOs at 10:45 a.m. Tuesday. The Illinois Regional Transportation Authority is set to sell $130 million of GOs, Series 2025A, at 11 a.m. Tuesday.
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Issuance for the week of April 28 is estimated at $10.338 billion, with $8.389 billion of negotiated deals and $1.949 billion of competitive deals on tap. The District of Columbia leads the negotiated calendar with a $1.49 billion deal, followed by the East Bay Municipal Utility District with a $1.094 billion deal. The competitive calendar is led by Delaware with $315.77 million of GOs. AAA scales
MMD's scale was little narrowly mixed: The one-year was at 2.97% (+2) and 3.00% (unch) in two years. The five-year was at 3.12% (unch), the 10-year at 3.44% (unch) and the 30-year at 4.46% (-2) at 3 p.m. The ICE AAA yield curve was bumped one to four basis points: 3.01% (-1) in 2026 and 3.00% (-1) in 2027. The five-year was at 3.06% (-4), the 10-year was at 3.39% (-3) and the 30-year was at 4.43% (-4) at 4 p.m. The S&P Global Market Intelligence municipal curve was little changed: The one-year was at 2.96% (unch) in 2025 and 2.99% (unch) in 2026. The five-year was at 3.12% (unch), the 10-year was at 3.44% (unch) and the 30-year yield was at 4.47% (-1) at 4 p.m. Bloomberg BVAL was bumped up to two basis points: 2.88% (unch) in 2025 and 2.95% (-1) in 2026. The five-year at 3.11% (-2), the 10-year at 3.42% (-2) and the 30-year at 4.46% (-2) at 4 p.m. Treasuries saw gains throughout the curve. The two-year UST was yielding 3.765% (-4), the three-year was at 3.759% (-4), the five-year at 3.886% (-5), the 10-year at 4.265% (-5), the 20-year at 4.748% (-6) and the 30-year at 4.733% (-4) near the close. Primary to come
The District of Columbia (Aa1/AAA//) is set to price Thursday $1.491 billion of income tax secured revenue bonds, consisting of $1.19 billion of tax-exempt refunding bonds, Series 2025A, serials 2026-2045, term 2050, and $301.08 million of taxables, Series 2025B, serials 2026-2040, terms 2045, 2050. Wells Fargo. The East Bay Municipal Utility District, California, (Aaa/AAA//) is set to price Thursday $1.095 billion of water system revenue bonds, consisting of $256.505 million of green Series 2025A bonds, serials 2040-2045, terms 2049, 2055; $473.455 million of Series 2025B refunding bonds, serials 2026-2045; and $364.55 million of Series 2025C refunding bonds, serials 2036-2040. Wells Fargo. The Black Belt Energy Gas District (/A-//) is set to price Thursday $659.2 million of gas project revenue bonds, 2025 Series A, serials 2027-2032, 2055. J.P. Morgan. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (Aa3/AA-/AA-/) is set to price Tuesday $498.9 million of consolidated refunding bonds, two hundred forty-eighth series, serials 2026-2045, terms 2050, 2055. J.P. Morgan. Oregon (Aa1/AA+/AA+/) is set to price Wednesday $379.42 million of higher education GOs, consisting of $183.34 million of Article XI-F(1) projects and refunding bonds, Series F, serials 2025-2045, and $196.08 million of Article XI-G(1) projects and refunding bonds, Series G, serials 2025-2045, term 2050. BofA Securities. The state is also set to price Wednesday $246.87 million of GO interstate bridge replacement project bonds, 2025 Series E, serials 2026-2045, term 2049. BofA Securities. The Colorado Educational and Cultural Facilities Authority is set to price Wednesday $291.71 million of the Stanley Project cultural facilities revenue bonds, consisting of $210.235 million of senior lien bonds Series 2025A-2, term 2059; $31.29 million taxable senior lien bonds, Series 2025A-2, term 2045; and $50.185 million of subordinate lien bonds, Series 2025B, term 2059. RBC Capital Markets. The Indiana Finance Authority (/AAA/AAA/) is set to price Wednesday $274.61 million of green state revolving fund program refunding bonds, Series 2025C, serials 2026-2046. Truist. The city of St. Paul Housing and Redevelopment Authority, Minnesota, (A2/A//) is set to price Tuesday $271.305 million of HealthPartners Obligated Group health care facilities revenue refunding bonds, serials 2025-2035. Piper Sandler. Brown University Health is set to price Wednesday through the Massachusetts Development Finance Authority (/BBB+/BBB+/) $245.825 million of revenue bonds, consisting of $160.825 million of fixed-rate mode Series 2025A bonds and $85 million of long-term mode Series 2025B bonds. Morgan Stanley. The hospital system is also set to price $154.975 million of taxable Series 2025C bonds. Morgan Stanley. The University of the North Texas System Board of Regents (Aa2//AA/AA/) is set to price Tuesday $215.05 million of tax-exempt revenue financing system refunding and improvement bonds, Series 2025A, serials 2026-2045, term 2050. Wells Fargo. The board of regents is also set to price $108.615 million taxable revenue financing system refunding and improvement bonds, Series 2025B, serials 2026-2040, term 2045. Raymond James. The Northside Independent School District, Texas, (Aaa//AAA/) is set to price Tuesday $200.935 million of PSF-insured unlimited tax school building bonds, serials 2026-2045, terms 2050, 2055. Stifel. The Tennessee Housing Development Agency (Aa1/AA+//) is set to price Wednesday $200 million of non-AMT social residential finance program bonds, Issue 2025-1A, serials 2026-2037, terms 2040, 2045, 2050, 2055, 2056. RBC Capital Markets. The Build NYC Resource Corp. (/BBB+//) is set to price Thursday $196 million of TRIPS Obligated Group senior airport facilities revenue bonds. J.P. Morgan. Howell Public Schools, Michigan, (/AA//) is set to price Tuesday $183.865 million of 2025 school building and site bonds, Series II, serials 2026-2045, insured by the Michigan School Bond Qualification and Loan Program. J.P. Morgan. The Rhode Island Student Loan Authority (/AA//) is set to price Wednesday $125 million of senior education loan revenue bonds, consisting of $100 million of AMT Series 2025A bonds, serials 2029-2034, term 2044, and $25 million of taxable Series 2025-1 bonds, serial 2044. RBC Capital Markets. The Denver Health and Hospital Authority, Colorado, (/BBB/BBB/) is set to price Thursday $116.37 million of healthcare revenue refunding bonds, Series 2025A, terms 2045, 2050, 2055. Piper Sandler. The Modesto High School District, California, (Aa2///) is set to price Tuesday $113 million of Election of 2022 GOs, Series B, serials 2026-2045, terms 2050, 2054. Piper Sandler. Prince William Water, Virginia, (Aaa/AAA//) is set to price Tuesday $105.925 million of water and sewer system revenue and refunding bonds, serials 2026-2055. Raymond James. The Oklahoma Housing Finance Agency (Aaa///) is set to price Tuesday $100 million of non-AMT homeownership loan program single-family mortgage revenue bonds, serials 2026-2037, terms 2040, 2045, 2049, 2056. Raymond James. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (Aaa/AAA/AAA/) is set to price Wednesday $100 million of general revenue bonds, Series 2012B. Wells Fargo. Competitive
Delaware is set to sell $315.77 million of GOs at 10:45 a.m. Tuesday. Shelby County, Tennessee, is set to sell $275.91 million of GO public improvement and school bonds, 2025 Series A, at 11 a.m. Tuesday. Pasadena, California, is set to sell $195 million of Central Library Project GOs, at noon Tuesday. Mesa, Arizona, is set to sell $156.4 million of GOs at 10:45 a.m. Tuesday. The Illinois Regional Transportation Authority is set to sell $130 million of GOs, Series 2025A, at 11 a.m. Tuesday.
