NASCAR may be in court with Michael Jordan, but the NASCAR Cup Series is in Phoenix this weekend for the Shriners Children’s 500.

There’s plenty to get hyped about: Christopher Bell is aiming to clinch his third win in a row already (at a race he won last year!), the second Cup Series debut in as many weeks features sports-car driver Katherine Legge, Goodyear is testing some alternate tires and the odds feature a long shot that our NASCAR writer Jeff Gluck calls “one of the biggest surprises ever in all the time doing these picks.”

Excited yet?

As always, we’re going to our NASCAR experts, Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, with our questions about the Phoenix race and other storylines to watch this weekend. Plus, they predict the winner.

The Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway is this Sunday, March 9, at 3:30 p.m. ET, airing on FS1.

Take it away, guys!

Last week, we asked you to predict how the 18-year-old phenom Connor Zilisch would perform in his debut. Well, he was on the receiving end of some bad luck (two crashes) and didn’t finish. But apart from that, he drove well. How would you assess his debut and his future?

Jeff: Zilisch was caught in a crash on the first turn of the race — not of his own doing — and dropped to 36th place. But impressively, he then drove all the way up to 14th before getting in yet another crash that wasn’t his fault (this time ending his day). Overall, he made a terrific impression and looked like he more than belonged out there with the Cup Series veterans, which is saying a lot for an 18-year-old who had never driven a Cup car before last weekend. He’ll certainly be a driver we see in the Cup Series for many years after he graduates from Xfinity.

Jordan: Nothing that transpired during the COTA race weekend changes the opinion that Zilisch is NASCAR’s top prospect and a likely future superstar. He dazzled in winning the Xfinity race and was positioning himself for a very respectable finish in the Cup race before being caught up in an incident not of his own doing. Sure, he has some things to clean up, but that’s going to be the case for any 18-year-old driver with limited national series experience.

Another NASCAR race, another debut! Katherine Legge, who has extensive experience in sports cars and IndyCar, is making her Cup Series debut. What should we expect?

Jeff: I’m a bit worried about this one. Legge is getting in arguably the slowest car in the field (a part-time entry for Live Fast Motorsports) and has very limited stock car oval racing experience. She did race Richmond in an Xfinity Series car seven years ago, finishing 28th, but other than that, her only NASCAR-related oval action was running three laps of the ARCA race at Daytona last month. She’s obviously been on plenty of ovals in open-wheel racing (including running four Indianapolis 500s), but the Cup Series is extremely difficult without much stock car experience. The added fact that her car isn’t up to speed compared to the top teams could make for a long day. B.J. McLeod, the veteran racer who owns Live Fast, finished six laps down in the car’s most recent Phoenix race — and that’s a driver with 145 Cup starts.

Jordan: It’s good to see a woman driver competing in the Cup Series, and Legge is certainly deserving of the opportunity. But expectations should be kept in check regarding how she’ll do for all the reasons Jeff laid out above. Her goals for Sunday should be to complete as many laps as possible, avoid starting any incidents and gain valuable experience. It isn’t unrealistic for her to accomplish these goals.

As Jeff explained in his COTA takeaways, Goodyear is bringing a softer compound to use as the “option” tire with hopes of testing it for full use in the championship race this fall. How do you expect this to affect the race?

Jeff: NASCAR tried the alternate, softer tire in two short-track races last season; this is Goodyear’s biggest test yet. Teams will have two sets of the “option” tires to use at their discretion during the race; the question is when. Those tires will be faster, but they also won’t last as long, so you’d think teams would, at a minimum, save one set for the end of the race in case there’s a late caution. Other than that, it might depend on how the cautions fall if we’re to see any variation in strategy.

Jordan: We saw an option tire used to great success last summer at Richmond, which opened the door for a softer tire compound to be used elsewhere. The hope is that this is what comes from Sunday’s race so that when NASCAR returns in November for its championship race, the on-track product is improved at a Phoenix track where the quality of racing isn’t always the highest.

Penske has won three straight championships in a row at Phoenix. NOOB question: Is that just luck? Why are they so good here? Less-NOOB question: How can they be beaten?

Jeff: It’s not luck, according to the other drivers. Penske has simply mastered Phoenix with the Next Gen car, and Kyle Larson recently said if a Penske driver makes the Championship 4 again, they’ll win another title. Teams aren’t sure what exactly makes Penske so good because they’ve tried to match it. Last year, Hendrick Motorsports spoke openly about getting better for Phoenix and worked on potential setups all summer — only to be thwarted yet again in November. Nothing has changed on the cars between the championship four months ago and this weekend’s race, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Penske run up front again.

Jordan: There is nothing lucky about it. Penske has done a great job finding the secret sauce that allows it to excel on a track that decides the championship. That’s why Penke drivers have won three consecutive championships. But the advantage Ford-backed Penske has at Phoenix tends to apply only to the fall championship race, not the spring race, which a year ago was dominated by Toyota drivers. So while Penske could be the team to beat on Sunday, it’s just as conceivable that another team asserts itself — just like Christopher Bell and Toyota did last spring here.

Christopher Bell has two wins already and is the favorite to win again. (He won at Phoenix in the regular-season race last year.) What’s going on with this guy? I mean, he’s obviously been great (he won three races last year) — but is he racing better than usual or do the results just look like that?

Jeff: He’s extremely talented, an elite racer who is a future champion. He just hasn’t necessarily put it all together with winning yet. Perhaps this will finally be his breakthrough year in the victories department (he already has two Championship 4 appearances and should have made it last year, after all). There’s been an element of fortune to his two wins so far this season, but that means the tracks where he’s a real contender (such as the next few weeks) could make his team even more dangerous.

Jordan: Bell is an elite talent who often gets overlooked because he’s fairly unassuming and just quietly goes about his business. What we’re seeing is him become an all-around driver capable of winning any given week on any type of track. What we’re likely going to see in 2025 is Bell putting up a monster season that sees him lead the series in several major statistical categories, like wins, laps led, stage wins, etc. It’s a real possibility that he has the type of season that turns heads and makes everyone fully realize just how gifted he is.

Let’s make some picks! Who is your favorite to win at Phoenix?

Jeff: Even though Bell came from 20th on the final pit stop last year to win the spring race by five seconds, I’m still on Penske until proven otherwise at Phoenix. Ryan Blaney is a good pick, but I’m shocked Joey Logano only has the fifth-best odds after winning his third championship last fall. Logano isn’t always great in the regular season, but he should still run well there.

Jordan: No driver has won three straight races since Kyle Larson in 2021. That changes this weekend. Bell wins his second consecutive Phoenix spring race, giving him three in a row this season.

Who is a long shot you like?

Jeff: One of the biggest surprises ever in all the time doing these picks has happened this week. Logano and Blaney’s Penske teammate, Austin Cindric, is +5000. What!? He’s going to have the same car as the ones that have accounted for three straight titles at Phoenix. OK, so maybe the sportsbooks are taking into consideration that he’s never finished in the top 10 at Phoenix and has never even led a lap there. I get that. But he also won the Xfinity Series championship at the track (plus another Xfinity race there), so it’s not like he’s incapable of getting around the place with a fast car.

Jordan: Chris Buescher isn’t a name you’re likely going to hear mentioned as a potential winner, but don’t sleep on the RFK Racing driver. He finished second here to Bell last spring and has a streak at Phoenix where he’s finished in the top 10 in three consecutive races.

Odds for Shriners Children’s 500

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