It's not clear yet whether state level changes in land use policy will play out at the local level ... [+] in a way that will benefit housing supply.

Not a month goes by that I don’t hear or see something about a city or state passing “landmark” or “sweeping” or “historic” changes to land use, zoning, or housing policies that will somehow positively impact people trying to buy or rent in those jurisdictions. I now always apply the necessary and sufficient standard to these changes. That is, do the laws or ordinances make changes that are both necessary to create more housing supply and actually deliver on the promise of more supply. Rhode Island and its largest city Providence have been making many changes to land use and housing policies over the last year. It’s too early to tell whether all these changes are sufficient, but some are promising.

(If you want to see an example of necessary but not sufficient changes, take a look at my post on Austin’s efforts last year to allow three houses on single-family lots, Austin Zoning Changes Necessary But Not Sufficient To Increase Housing ).

The Rhode Island Builders Association created an extensive memo summarizing changes taking effect in 2024. Some of these changes affect the review process for projects and seem rather arcane like, “Appeals of decisions now go direct to superior court—no zoning board of appeals for permitting decisions” and “major subdivisions are anything 10 lots or over.” However, this raft of procedural changes is at the heart of argle-bargle that way lay projects and choke production. These definitely are the kinds of necessary changes that can speed up production. Thresholds are critical in housing production; if a project falls on one side or another of a line, it could be an order a magnitude of costs if it’s on the wrong side. The new changes require local jurisdictions to make adjustments to these that appear to benefit production.

But much of what state has done depends on local governments. For example, “a municipality may utilize development plan review under limited circumstances to encourage development to comply with design and/or performance standards of the community under specific and objective guidelines.” That leaves room for necessary changes but will the local governments ensure they are sufficient?

Jurisdictions in Rhode Island are trying to figure out what “objective” means and how to implement the changes made at the state level to Development Plan Review (DPR), the rules that determine how much and what kind of review housing proposals must slog through to get permitted. One township, New Shoreham on Block Island, found itself baffled by the requirements. A story in the Block Island Times caught their dialogue on what to do.

“This is a subject of much discussion in the land use and zoning world. What is specific and objective?” the township’s attorney told the town council. One council member wondered, “So, we’re waiting for someone to sue on one of these, from our town or another town, to see whether these are specific and objective enough?”

“That’s correct,” said the attorney.

At this point, while the procedural changes are intended to create the necessary conditions for more housing production, it’s not clear they are even going to accomplish that. What about the state’s biggest and fastest growing city, Providence? I posed some questions to the Mayor of Providence, Brett Smiley , about their response to the state’s changes and the problem is described in Austin (I asked him to read that post liked above).

How can Providence make significant changes and improvements to zoning that are both necessary and sufficient to increasing housing supply so that it reduces prices and rents?

The cost of housing is indisputably linked to the city’s low housing inventory. Providence needs more housing units at every price point and that is why my Administration is streamlining permitting processes and adopting pro-growth zoning regulations to make it easier and more efficient to develop new housing in every neighborhood. By shifting our zoning ordinances to allow for increased housing density, we are paving the way for transformative growth in Providence.

I don’t disagree with anything in this answer, but I’m still wondering how all this will really affect housing. That’s why I asked the next question.

How will you measure progress? For example, is your planning department tracking the average time from permit application to Certificate of Occupancy?

By removing the unnecessary obstacles in the review process for new residential spaces, my administration is dramatically expediting the efficiency and speed in which new homes can be constructed. Right now, the average review process currently takes upwards of 30 days, if successful, our newly implemented concurrent review system could complete reviews for new single-family and two-family homes within seven days – far outpacing the speed of development in major metropolitan cities across the country.

The words, “if successful” validate my point in the opening paragraph; whether the changes in Rhode Island and Providence will lower prices and rents with increased production is still unknown. And it is really good the Mayor has a number, “within 7 days” to hold himself and the City accountable. But even if successful, how much will those 23 days benefit people with less money looking for housing?

What are the biggest challenges to achieving this?

We know that the increase of interest rates and production costs is impacting development projects across the country, including here in Providence. My Administration is responding by making direct investments to incentivize and spur increased construction of affordable housing. This funding has already helped create and preserve over 1,600 affordable housing units in Providence.

As I’ve pointed out before, more money is not the answer. But Mayor Smiley isn’t alone in putting more money into large tax credit projects like the one in this press release which is 178 units for $70 million, about $400,000 per unit. According to Zillow , the average cost of a house is $402,166. The problems with big tax credit projects persist , but hopefully, the changes in process and zoning in Rhode Island and Providence will prove to be both necessary and sufficient over time.