The
New York Yankees (41-25) and host
Kansas City Royals (34-34) meet in the Thursday finale of a three-game set at Kauffman Stadium. The first pitch is slated for 7:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let's analyze
BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the
Yankees vs. Royals odds and make our expert
MLB picks and predictions for the best bets. New York has outscored K.C. 16-5 over the first 2 games of this 3-game set, and the Yankees head into Thursday seeking a sweep. Including postseason play, New York has defeated Kansas City in 7 straight games since last October. After 10-2 and 6-3 losses, the Royals have dropped 4 of their last 5 games. A scuffling Kansas City lineup produced 3 runs or less in all 4 of those losses. In its 7 straight setbacks against the Yanks, K.C. has scored less than 4 runs in every game.
Yankees at Royals projected starters
Warren (4-3, 5.34 ERA) is making his 14th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 through 57 1/3 innings. Lugo (3-5, 3.46 ERA) is making his 12th start. He owns a 1.17 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 65 innings.
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Provided by
BetMGM Sportsbook ; access
USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:28 a.m. ET.
Yankees at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
The Yankees are 9-1 across their last 10 series finales. Since April 29, New York is 13-6 with a robust .888 OPS away from home. Kansas City is just 10-18 since May 20. Over that span, the Royals have clocked a mere .596 OPS at Kauffman Stadium. Both starters have expected-ERA numbers out of phase with the surface lines. Warren has pitched against the grain of a .324 batting average on balls in play. In inning-lead-off situations, that has been a .357 BABIP; with runners in scoring position, it has been an ERA-bloating .579 BABIP. As good as New York's record is, the club's analytics support an even better mark.
BET THE YANKEES (-145) .
No interest.
PASS .
The Over has hit the last 2 nights. New York has been banging the ball around and collectively has a decent line against Lugo (aggregate .748 OPS per ESPN). Figure the Royals offense has being undervalued, and this contest has just the slightest lean on the
OVER 9 (-105) .
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