Safe and dependable play is often favored in the NHL, both on and off the ice. The Carolina Hurricanes could have followed that path, leaving Martin Necas and Jack Drury on their roster.

But sometimes, safe is death. John Tortorella and the Tampa Bay Lightning embraced this mantra on their path to the Stanley Cup in 2004, and it rings true with the 2024-25 Hurricanes.

The Canes came into the season with a playoff-caliber roster. But at this point, playoff-caliber doesn’t cut it for a team that has qualified in six consecutive seasons and has yet to make it past the conference finals.

On paper, Rantanen was the elite winger the Hurricanes were missing. Sometimes, even the best theoretical fits don’t work out, though. As much as a team can take a calculated risk, the reality doesn’t always line up, and that was the case here. The initial shock barely wore off before teams were sent to the 4 Nations Face-Off, and things didn’t settle enough afterward, especially with so much swirling around whether or not Rantanen would be willing to extend.

The Hurricanes could have kept Rantanen as a rental, which the team paid for in the first place. And that would have been justifiable, especially considering some weaknesses in the Metropolitan Division and the Eastern Conference wild-card picture. But the vibes were off, and the Stars made a tantalizing enough offer.

Dallas is rightfully getting praised as the winner in this situation. Rantanen, with an eight-year extension, transforms the Stars’ forward group. And the team didn’t have to give up two untouchables, Wyatt Johnston or Thomas Harley, to make it happen.

The Hurricanes’ Stanley Cup chances are worse without him, and time ran out to swing for another difference-maker. Logan Stankoven may look like a perfect stylistic fit for the Canes, but he isn’t at Rantanen’s caliber right now. And draft picks will never generate the same hype for a contending team. Sure, management has a year and a half to weaponize those two firsts as trade assets, but right now, that’s just an idea filled with uncertainty and not concrete like a high-end player would be.

The Hurricanes need to move the needle to break through in the playoffs, and the only way to do that is to take a risk with an aggressive approach. Eric Tulsky, a first-time general manager, did exactly that. The final result isn’t what the team hoped for, but it was an intricate situation from Day 1, and management did their best to navigate its complexities. That is more commendable than sticking with the status quo, which would likely have ended in the same results as in years past.

The Lightning are all in

Speaking of risk-taking, Julien BriseBois is no stranger to taking big swings.

Think back to 2023 when the Lightning acquired Tanner Jeannot. BriseBois unquestionably overspent on an underperforming forward whose size and strength seemed to distract from his true value. But his thought process around the odds of the draft picks he moved was perfectly sound.

“I know what the odds are of those picks turning into players. I also know what the odds are of those picks turning into players that can help us win while we have this group of players right now in their prime, ready to go for another long run. The odds of that are zero,” BriseBois said in his post-trade press conference in 2023. “None of those picks were going to help. None of the players we were going to draft with those picks are going to help us win this year, or next, or probably the year after that.”

That line of thinking once again inspired the Lightning’s bold deadline moves in 2025, The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reported.

“The value in having draft picks lies in our ability to convert them into players that can help us win NHL hockey games. We used some draft capital to add two good players that will help us win more games this season and beyond,” BriseBois said. “Ultimately, the calculation is that trying and failing will yield less regret than failing to try.”

The difference this time is that the players acquired, Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand, are worth the high price.

Not every team is in the position to throw caution to the wind and move out franchise-altering picks. But the Lightning absolutely are, for two reasons.

Tampa Bay’s elite core is thriving this season. Andrei Vasilevskiy is back to his game-breaking ways. The return of Ryan McDonagh helped revitalize Victor Hedman and stabilize the top four. Up front, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel are all difference-makers. And on the second line, Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel are a nightmare to match up against.

Pair that with the ages of this core — Hedman is 34, McDonagh is 35, Kucherov is 31, and both Guentzel and Vasilevskiy are 30 — and the timing makes perfect sense. If not now, when is the best time to go all in?

Draft picks don’t have the same value as supporting talent who can complete this team and solidify their contender status. There is much less certainty in what a 2027 first-rounder can become versus what Gourde and Bjorkstrand can do for this roster.

The Lightning’s playoff window will eventually slam shut and the road back to contention may be long and painful. But the team may not mind rebuilding as much if it’s wearing a third Stanley Cup ring. Banners fly forever, and draft picks sometimes don’t even make it to the NHL.

Accounting for context in Colorado

Jared Bednar was asked about Ryan Lindgren’s declining underlying metrics, and the answer sheds light on the team’s process.

Even if the New York Rangers and Colorado Avalanche have the same data set, every team uses it differently and builds unique models around it. This can help a team spot a player’s strengths and weaknesses and give some insight into how to maximize their strengths.

Lindgren may have struggled in New York over the last two seasons despite having the support of one of the best two-way defensemen in Adam Fox on his right. But it doesn’t mean the Avalanche can’t get him back on track. Management and coaching may be able to pinpoint his strengths and put him in a different position to maximize them.

That could be the case with Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle, whose scoring declined this year.

With Coyle, the best way to mitigate some effects of age-related decline is a change in usage. He shouldered too much in Boston on the second line. But at 3C in Colorado, he can focus on winning puck battles, playing sound defense and chipping in with secondary scoring.

With Nelson, management likely spotted how his surroundings contributed to slowed scoring. A deeper look shows how strong his puck-moving and defensive game have been all season, which is exactly what this position was missing after Casey Mittelstadt regressed.

Every trade carries an element of risk, but the context around a player’s situation and results goes a long way in estimating their fit elsewhere.

Stars solidify their core with Johnston and Rantanen

The Rantanen trade and extension was a home run for the Stars. But maybe the team’s best move of the week was extending rising star Wyatt Johnston to a five-year, $42 million deal that already looks like one of the most valuable contracts in the league.

Johnston has progressed a lot over the last couple of seasons in various roles in the Stars’ top nine. His breakthrough came in the playoffs, when he was the team’s leading scoring-chance creator. But adding Rantanen could help take his game to the next level.

Rantanen was originally slotted alongside fellow Finn Roope Hintz on Saturday night, but an injury put him with Johnston sooner than expected. This is the pairing to keep an eye on.

After years of playing with righty Nathan MacKinnon, Johnston’s handedness may help ease Rantanen’s transition. And while Johnston isn’t at MacKinnon’s level, or the same player stylistically, the two have some real potential together. One of the biggest differences is that Johnston isn’t as much of a puck-carrier, but Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley can at least add some support from the back end. Johnston’s more of a shooter than a passer, but he generates a lot of high-danger passes, according to Corey Sznajder’s tracking. With a finisher like Rantanen at his side, maybe he becomes even more of a threat.

Wild-card contenders aren’t buyers

The second wild-card seed race is open in the West — but no one is overspending to reach the postseason.

The Vancouver Canucks have the best odds, and the decision not to move pending free agents contributes to that. So does Quinn Hughes, whose health is the biggest difference-maker for their chances.

That leaves the door open for three other teams to disrupt the playoff picture.

The Calgary Flames’ standing is due to Dustin Wolf. In 38 games, he has saved 24 goals above expectations, ranking fifth in the league.

Utah’s reinforcements have come from within, as Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley and Sean Durzi have returned from injury. Pair that with Clayton Keller’s excellence, Barrett Hayton’s progression and Karel Vejmelka’s strength in net, and this team is on the right track.

The St. Louis Blues’ turnaround under Jim Montgomery has kept them in the playoff picture. Robert Thomas, Dylan Holloway and Cam Fowler have all upped their game to lead this team. Colton Parayko’s injury, and the team’s struggles on special teams, hold them back.

Any of these teams could have solidified their chances with an addition or two, but at what cost? The top of the conference is stacked, so the cautious approach makes sense here.

Are the Red Wings cooked?

After losing four straight games, the Detroit Red Wings’ playoff chances plummeted just before the trade deadline. The deck was already stacked against the Red Wings, who face one of the most difficult schedules in the league down the stretch, but maybe management should have brought in reinforcements to give this team a shot.

The coaching change helped the Red Wings get back on track, but its impact could only go so far with this roster. Detroit’s even-strength defense collapsed over the last stretch and the goaltending could only mask it for so long. Pair that with season-wide penalty kill issues and an over-reliance on the power play, and it’s clear this team is not ready to contend. Friday night’s implosion against the Washington Capitals only confirmed that.

Playoff hopefuls can’t overhaul their rosters at the deadline — that’s the time to make tweaks and accents to complete a roster, and the Red Wings need more than that. Still, with the Boston Bruins, New York Islanders and Rangers all selling key players at the deadline, there could be leeway for the Red Wings to stay in the race with Columbus and Ottawa for a wild-card seed.

Maybe management should have looked for low-key players to help this team at least stay in the race, even if it ultimately falls short. A finish just outside the playoffs would put Detroit in the same position as last year, but at least this group would gain more experience playing meaningful hockey in high-pressure moments.

Walman’s breakout ability

The Edmonton Oilers need more top-nine help to spark offense around Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and an injured Trent Frederic only somewhat threads the needle. But maybe Jake Walman could be the spark that helps ignite the Oilers’ bottom six.

Walman’s puck-moving ability is one of his best strengths. He exits the zone often and efficiently, with 10.4 possession exits per 60, which ranks among the best in the league.

McDavid tends to share the ice with Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm, who has a knack for passing the puck out of the defensive zone. Draisaitl is one of the best forwards in the league at retrieving the puck and exiting the zone with control. But no one helps ignite the bottom-six forwards. Maybe Walman can change that since he will likely share the ice with that group the most on the third pair — unless he ends up sticking with Darnell Nurse on the second. While it won’t necessarily make up for some of their weaknesses on the wings, he still could help infuse some offensive support for a team that surprisingly needs it.

That was the case in his first outing on Saturday night against the Stars, when his stretch pass helped set up Zach Hyman’s goal.

Walman made a strong first impression in Edmonton against one of the best in the West. The Oilers tilted the ice with a 26-10 edge in five-on-five shot attempts in his minutes, rocked an 83 percent expected goal rate, and outscored the Stars 3-0.

Data via Dom Luszczyszyn, Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.