Amid global trade tensions and China’s tariff on U.S. agro imports, new insights point to Nigeria as a potential alternative to the world’s largest soybean importer.

The US and China recently agreed to reduce tariffs on most goods after an escalating trade tension triggered by Donald Trump.

The US agreed to slash tariffs on Chinese goods to 30 percent from 145 percent, while China lowered its levies on American imports to 10 percent from 125 percent.

This makes Nigeria’s soybeans relatively cheaper than China’s, presenting an opportunity for the nation’s agro-based exporters to sell cheaper product to US consumers.

China has also taken a decison to diversify away from the US market, leaving an opportunity open for Nigerian exporters.

Fimile Toks, an analyst, highlighted the global implications of the U.S.-China trade rift. “In 2024, the U.S. exported $12.4 billion of soybeans to China. If Nigeria can ramp up output and secure even a fraction of that market, the ripple effects could transform rural farming economies nationwide,” he noted.

“Nations build wealth through strategic exports,” Toks added. “Look at Brazil—it overtook the US in soybean exports within five years by following a clear national strategy. Nigeria has the potential to do the same, with the right focus and leadership,” he further explained.

Frederick Ukula, agro-processing manager at Ecobasic Seed Company Limited, underscored the strong profit potential of soybean farming. “It’s a highly profitable venture,” he said. “Soybeans are in constant demand for feed, food, and oil. They’re easy to grow, have high-yielding seed varieties, and there are varieties less prone to shattering, making them a smart choice for farmers,” he noted.

Kaduna-based farmer Abdoulmalik Maisango shared similar optimism, calling soybeans ‘a silent millionaire maker.’

He explained, “It’s a key ingredient in animal feed and soy milk, with high demand from agro-industries. With good agronomic practices and improved seeds, farmers can harvest two to four tons per hectare and make up to N2.8 million in profit,” he added.

Maisango also highlighted its affordability and soil-friendly nature. “A ton of soybeans currently sells between $350 and $565. Plus, it doesn’t need much fertilizer—being a legume. It naturally enriches the soil,” he noted.

Ayodele Uwala, national president of the Soybeans Stakeholders Coalition of Nigeria, emphasised the crop’s versatility and value-added potential.

“Over 70 percent of food sauces in Nigeria contain soybeans,” he noted in an exclusive interview with BusinessDay.

“Cottage industries are thriving by processing soybeans into soy milk, cheese, fortified bread, and even local favorites like ‘moin moin.’ It’s not just a crop—it’s a catalyst for agro-industrial growth,” he added.

Soybean continues to rank among Nigeria’s top agricultural exports, fuelled by strong demand from major international markets like China, Nepal, Pakistan, and Turkey. In 2023, Nigeria exported soybeans worth N148.2 billion—a remarkable 561 percent jump from N22.42 billion in 2022, according to BusinessDay research.

The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) attributes this dramatic rise to improved local production, driven by competitive farm-gate prices and surging global demand.

“Soybean has become one of Nigeria’s most promising non-oil exports,” the NEPC noted in a recent report.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report, Nigeria produced 1.1 million metric tons of soybeans in 2022, making it the second-largest producer in Africa after South Africa. It further projects steady growth, with production expected to reach 1.5 million metric tons by 2026, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.1 percent between 2024 and 2028.

Meanwhile, data from the World Economic Database underscore the growing importance of global soybean trade. China’s net soybean grain imports have skyrocketed—from just 20 percent of global share in 1997 to a commanding 80 percent by 2019.

“This shift in China’s demand presents a strategic opening for Nigeria,” said a trade analyst at the Nigerian Export Promotion Council. “If we continue to scale production and strengthen our export infrastructure, Nigeria could capture a meaningful share of this expanding market.”

Uwala pointed out several critical challenges hindering soybean production, including limited access to quality seeds, lack of essential inputs like fertilizers, particularly Single Super Phosphate (SSP), and the unavailability of Soybean Inoculant (NoduMax).

He noted a serious gap in mechanisation, with no harvesters or threshers available to support both small- and medium-scale farmers.

Other farmers also highlighted price volatility as a recurring challenge, a common issue with grain markets. They emphasised that fluctuating prices make it difficult to plan and sustain consistent profitability in soybean production.

Ukula also pointed to insecurity and a lack of awareness among rural farmers about the availability of improved soybean varieties as a major challenge. “Insecurity disrupts farming operations, while limited knowledge of high-yield, resilient seed options prevent farmers from maximising their productivity,” he noted.

The global soybean market was valued at $193.10 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.4 percent between 2024 and 2030, according to Grand view Research.

In the same year, Nigeria exported $201 million worth of soybeans, ranking as the 12th largest exporter out of 142 countries worldwide, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Soybeans also emerged as Nigeria’s 14th most exported product among 3,364 export categories.

Key export destinations included India ($126 million), Pakistan ($40.8 million), Canada ($9.24 million), Nepal ($8.78 million), and Turkey ($5.05 million), underscoring Nigeria’s growing relevance in the global soybean trade.