The NCAA Tournament always seems to have intriguing second-round matchups, and this one is no exception. Oregon (25-9 SU, 16-17-1 ATS) and Arizona (23-12 SU, 19-16 ATS)
used to be Pac-12 rivals , but now they’re in different conferences — and having solid seasons as usual. On Sunday night, the Big Ten and Big 12 teams meet in the second round of March Madness as the Nos. 5 and 4 seeds. The Ducks cruised past No. 12 Liberty on Friday, and Arizona squashed No. 13 Akron. Expect a closer game on Sunday. Arizona is a 3.5- or 4-point favorite over Oregon. The over/under is 152.5 to 153.5 points. Here are our Oregon vs. Arizona predictions, picks and best bets for the second round of March Madness.
Oregon vs. Arizona Prediction
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Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds. This prediction is simple: Dana Altman coaches Oregon — not Arizona. In his 15th season with the Ducks, Altman’s postseason track record is great. He has led Oregon to the NCAA Tournament nine times and has never lost in the first round. He has only lost in the second round once. That second-round loss came last season when the Ducks were a No. 11 seed. Altman is 5-0 in second-round games when Oregon is a No. 8 seed or better. Oregon has been playing better lately, too. The Ducks have won nine of their last 10. If that sounds familiar, it’s because they rose to a top-10 ranking by winning their first nine games of the season, including three over Texas A&M, San Diego State and Alabama in five days. The Ducks’ success is backed by three strong guards and tremendous post play from center Nate Bittle. He leads the team with 14.1 points and 7.5 rebounds. Guards Jackson Shelstad, TJ Bamba and Keeshawn Barthelemy all average double digits. And if it’s a tight game? Oregon’s top five scorers shoot 75% or better from the free-throw line. Arizona is no slouch. Any team with a big-time scorer like Caleb Love is never out of it. The Wildcats are one of the best teams nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Ducks counter that by being one of the best in the nation over the last month in adjusted defensive efficiency. If Oregon plays to its potential, its defense will be a big reason. Eight of Oregon’s last nine games have gone under the total, and that should be the case again Sunday night. The Ducks have been great on defense in the last month, and there’s no way an Altman-coached team lets up in that department at this stage.
Oregon vs. Arizona moneyline odds analysis
Why Arizona could win as the favorite
There are not many players in college basketball who stoke as much fear into opponents as Caleb Love. Love made a name for himself with North Carolina for three seasons. He played a pivotal role in the Tar Heels reaching the 2022 NCAA Tournament championship game. He flashed his scoring potential recently, too, with 27 points in a Big 12 Tournament semifinal win over Texas Tech. Love has four other games this season with at least 27 points. If he gets hot, he is impossible to stop. Oregon needs to beware.
Why Oregon could win as the underdog
Atlman is a steady presence. That can make a huge difference in March. This team showed how great it can be in the first month and has returned to that level of play. In other words, this is not a fluke. Oregon is a solid team all around the court that can win in different ways. This is the type of team that advances to the Sweet 16.
