2025 NBA Playoffs

With the first round complete, 8 teams remain in the hunt for the NBA title as the conference semifinals tip off.

Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers have jumped out to an 1-0 lead over the No. 1 seed Cavs, stealing Game 1 in Cleveland.

Entering the first round of the playoffs , there were only three potential upsets. If the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers or Oklahoma City Thunder lost their series, it would have been a surprise.

The Celtics, Cavs and Thunder, of course, took care of business, suffering just one first-round loss between them while registering a cumulative point differential of 20.3 points per game.

The other five series were seemingly up for grabs, and two of them went seven games, while five of the six games between the New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons were within five points in the last five minutes. But the Indiana Pacers and Minnesota Timberwolves advanced with relative ease, using balanced attacks against superstar opponents.

So, despite Cleveland’s loss in Game 1 vs. Indiana on Sunday, it’s still the Thunder, Celtics and Cavs at the top of the power rankings as we begin the conference semifinals. It would again be a pretty big upset if any of the three don’t advance to the final four.

The 16 teams have averaged 112.7 points scored per 100 possessions and 94.7 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes in the playoffs, down from 113.7 and 99.6 (for all 30 teams) in the regular season.

The Thunder had the best regular-season point differential in NBA history, and won Game 1 by 51 . They had the best record (18-10) after trailing by double-digits for any team in the 29 seasons for which we have play-by-play data, and they came back from 29 down to win Game 3. They’ve been both dominant and resilient.

Depth should be an obvious advantage in the conference semifinals for the Thunder, who played 10 or more players (even in the close games) in the first round. They outscored Denver by 22.5 points per 100 possessions in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 45 minutes off the floor in the regular-season series.

The Celtics had a brief stumble in the first round, losing an ugly Game 3 in Orlando. But they’re in the conference semifinals for the seventh time in the last eight postseasons, and they’re facing a team they’ve dominated over the last two.

The Celtics have won eight of their last nine games against the Knicks, with the offensive numbers ( 130.2 points scored per 100 possessions over the four games ) this year being ridiculous. The spotlight on Monday could be on their ability to defend Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns without sending help. Boston’s injury report for Game 1 is clear , so we can expect Holiday to make his return and spend some time defending both of the Knicks’ stars.

First-round results: Defeated Miami 4-0
Conference semifinals: Down 0-1 vs. Indiana .

After torching the Heat for four games, the Cavs fell into an early hole against the Pacers and couldn’t complete a comeback from a double-digit deficit in Game 1 of the conference semifinals. It was noted in this space two weeks ago that the common theme from when they’ve lost is hot 3-point shooting from their opponents, and Indiana was 19-for-36 (53%) from beyond the arc on Sunday.

The Cavs set 16 ball-screens with the guy that Tyrese Haliburton was guarding in Game 1, but didn’t score very efficiently (0.79 points per chance) with that action, per Second Spectrum tracking. Don’t expect them to give up on it, but Mitchell might be more aggressive in attacking his counterpart instead of pulling up from deep.

For the first time in franchise history, the Wolves have won a playoff series in consecutive postseasons. Few people picked them to beat the Lakers, but it wasn’t much of an upset given that, statistically, the Wolves were the much better team in the regular season.

The Warriors were the only team with three regular-season wins against the Wolves, and all four games came before Golden State added Jimmy Butler. Bench minutes were an issue, with Minnesota getting outscored by 25.6 points per 100 possessions in Edwards’ 41 minutes off the floor.

First-round results: Defeated Milwaukee 4-1
Conference semifinals: Up 1-0 vs. Cleveland .

The Pacers handled their business against the Bucks with an efficient and balanced offense in the first round, and then surprised the Cavs in Game 1 on Sunday. They lost Game 1 in all three of their 2024 playoff series.

The Pacers can’t expect to shoot 53% from 3-point range again in Game 2 on Tuesday, but they can take better care of the ball. They’ll also need to be better on the glass going forward.

The Warriors missed an opportunity to close out the Rockets in Game 6 at home, but survived Game 7 in Houston thanks to a huge performance (33 points on 12-for-15 shooting) from Buddy Hield. They’ve now reached the conference semifinals in eight of their 11 seasons under coach Steve Kerr.

The Warriors were the worst rebounding team in the first round, and their next opponent (Minnesota) led the first round in offensive rebounding percentage. So the glass will be their No. 1 concern when the conference semifinals begin on Tuesday.

First-round results: Defeated LA Clippers 4-3
Conference semifinals: vs. Oklahoma City .

Instead of blowing a 20-point lead in Game 7 at home (like they did in the 2024 West semis ), the Nuggets built on it, blowing the Clippers out to reach the conference semifinals for the sixth time in the last seven postseasons. David Adelman is now the only coach in NBA history with more playoff wins (four) than regular-season wins (three).

The Nuggets were one of only five teams with a regular-season win in Oklahoma City, where they’ll begin the conference semis on Monday night. Jamal Murray scored 34 points in that March 10 victory , with 31 of those 34 points coming against Thunder players other than Lu Dort, who was his primary defender. Getting Dort off Murray could be the No. 1 priority for the Denver offense in the next two weeks.

Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns hit a bunch of big shots as the Knicks survived a tight series against the Pistons. The only one of the six games that wasn’t within three points in the last three minutes was the one (Game 1) in which the Knicks trailed by eight points with less than 10 minutes left before going on a 21-0 run.

To make up for their defensive issues, Brunson and Towns will need to be lights out on offense. Perhaps that means putting Towns in the post against smaller defenders on Monday.