This is the second installment in a three-part series on the state of the Arizona housing market. Read part one here . PHOENIX — For years, lawmakers and real estate experts have been saying that Arizona needs to bolster its housing supply to address the growing issue of affordability. “We have both an affordability and an availability crisis going on at the moment,” said Danny Seiden,
president and CEO of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry. However, inventory of homes for sale is on the rise across metro Phoenix, with some communities seeing more growth than others.
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A large portion of housing is coming up in the West Valley, some in areas outside the urban core of the Valley.
Development at the Valley’s edge
Buckeye Mayor Eric Orsborn says high growth in his West Valley city is driven by new employment opportunities associated with the local growing semiconductor industry. “We’ll continue to grow that stuff in. What we’re really concentrating on now is bringing in employment to the community and also retail,” Orsborn said. Buckeye saw a year-over-year increase in
single-family home inventory for sale of 38% in March, according to
data from Phoenix Realtors . “The entire Phoenix metro area is really well positioned for growth,” Orsborn said. “We think that we’re part of all that and really excited about the high-paying jobs coming out way.” But Mark Staap, director of Arizona State University’s Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice, notes that commuting costs and location factors also play a pivotal role in determining what homebuyers can truly afford. He also says growth needs to be intentional. “If all we ever do is build houses without creating the social and cultural infrastructure to support them, we are not building strong, resilient communities,” Staap said. “We are merely creating commodities.” Orsborn shares that concern, saying creating amenities along with jobs is key so Buckeye locals don’t have to drive into Phoenix or other cities for services and employment. “What we don’t want to have happen is either haphazard growth or just end up a sea of tile roofs and everyone driving into Phoenix for work,” the mayor said. “It has to be well thought out.” Christy Walker, Phoenix Realtors board president, said the Loop 303 is an example of kind of infrastructure that is setting the West Valley up for growth. “It’s ripe for development,” she said. “Now that the 303 is in, it creates infrastructure for commuting.”
West Valley seeing more growth than east side
The Arizona Chamber of Commerce’s Seiden says that while the development will push out into areas like Buckeye, urban areas will continue to see housing growth. ASU’s Staap adds that’s because of the relationship between jobs and housing, with both employers and employees wanting housing to be closer to work. Like Buckeye, the northwest Valley suburb of Peoria is using that relationship to drive local growth, as the city has recently invited in a $2 billion dollar
semiconductor project from AMKOR . The year-over-year
single-family home inventory increase in Peoria was 68.4%. “They have a huge amount of opportunity to capitalize on if they want to develop smartly, to take advantage of what the Phoenix city has done to drive that area’s growth,” Walker, the Phoenix Realtors board president, said of Peoria. She also noted that the West Valley is generally seeing the most current development, in part because of the open space. “We’re going to continue to see a lot of growth fill in until most of that land is developed,” she said. Scottsdale is an example of how things are different on the east side.
Inventory was up 27.1% year-over-year for single-family homes, considerably less than in Buckeye or Peoria. In addition, Scottsdale has a significant number of condos and townhouses, unlike those West Valley cities. Scottsdale saw a 26.5% decline in condo and townhouse inventory over the last year.
Real estate experts look at challenges, opportunities ahead
The stats don’t tell the whole story. In fact, multiple wild cards make it difficult to predict how the Valley housing market will evolve from here. With President Donald Trump’s tariffs now hanging over the U.S., the market faces the risk of rising costs. But Orsborn is also hopeful the president’s plan to use tariffs to bring back U.S. manufacturing could benefit his city as it looks for more employers to bring in. In general, the Buckeye mayor believes there’s opportunity for Arizona communities with room to grow. “Not just because it’s cheaper to build out there, because that’s really the only places that are left for substantial development,” Orsborn said. Another concern is that increased deportation efforts could hamper the construction industry. ASU’s Staap says the combination of these, and other policies, could throw a wrench in the housing market. “It’s the accumulation of effects from a number of different policies,” he said. But others, like Walker with Phoenix Realtors, are hopeful the president’s tariff gambit will eventually benefit the housing market. “Some of these areas may feel very far out and they may feel less developed,” she said. “At the end of the day as the population continues to grow, we’re going to have to expand out because we’re a city that doesn’t really grow up.”
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