They’ve been contending for decades, but a series of mistakes combined with bad luck could finally be pulling Sydney back to the pack.

Plus the best and worst of Jason Horne-Francis all in one day, the Bulldogs’ brilliance giving them good problems to solve, and much more.

The big issues from Round 7 of the 2025 AFL season analysed in Talking Points!

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Last year, it took until the end of July for the Sydney Swans to lose five games. They would only lose two more all season.

This year, the reigning minor premiers are 2-5 at the end of April, and languishing just above the bottom four. Few expected them to have the likes of Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne and West Coast for company.

And to be fair, a lot of it is just bad luck with injuries. The Swans had incredible consistency in 2024, with nine players featuring in all 26 games, and 20 playing 21 games or more.

Their only notable issues across the home and away season were Callum Mills’ multiple injuries and Luke Parker’s mix of injuries and a big suspension; they used 31 players all year, five of whom were obvious and brief fill-ins, effectively enabling them to use a core 26-man squad all season.

In contrast, coming into this weekend the Swans had 10 players on their injury list, including notables like Errol Gullden, Tom Papley, Callum Mills, Harry Cunningham, and key forward pair Logan McDonald and Joel Amartey.

Any team would be worse with that sort of jump in injuries. But it’s particularly bad for the Swans because of their drafting, which has been poor for more than half a decade with only a few exceptions.

They have not generated the sort of depth this team requires in the midst of an injury plague, and a tight salary cap for many years - both with Buddy Franklin’s big deal on the books, and without - has meant they’ve only tinkered at the edges during the trade period.

Yes, they brought in Brodie Grundy, James Jordon and Taylor Adams last year. Sure, they’ve picked Errol Gulden, Chad Warner and most recently Riley Bice. But six success stories in six years isn’t enough - and Adams being in that group is probably a bit generous anyway.

The most obvious issues have come at the top of drafts. The 2019 group looks like one of the modern greats, with the likes of Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson, Luke Jackson, Caleb Serong, Hayden Young, Tom Green and Will Day going in the first round (among many other stars).

But the Swans went with Dylan Stephens , who has clearly underachieved based on where he was picked and who was picked around him, followed by Will Gould and Elijah Taylor .

The Swans’ fourth pick of the draft, Chad Warner , is an obvious win but they should have gotten at least two stars out of this crop - it’s one of the best first rounds ever, with another dozen-odd solid players found outside of it.

Then there’s 2020, where the Swans went for Logan McDonald at No.4, then matched a bid for Braeden Campbell at No.5, before nabbing Errol Gulden at No.32. Again, their last pick is a win, but McDonald has been just OK (in an admittedly poor draft overall).

Things haven’t gotten better since then. While conceding the Swans are often picking late in the first round because they’re usually contending, they just keep missing with their top picks - Angus Sheldrick in 2021, Jacob Konstanty in 2022 and Will Green in 2023 giving them a combined 13 AFL games (all from Sheldrick).

The most games they’ve gotten from any player drafted since 2021 is Matt Roberts , who is a handy player, but not the type of guy who should be your best pick over a full three-year period. Corey Warner is starting to emerge too, but isn’t that type either.

Again, this problem is exacerbated by their combination of inability and unwillingness to make major changes through the trade period. Inability because we know they haven’t really had the room to do anything big; but unwillingness because plenty of teams with tight salary caps have still found a way to add top-end talent when available.

And it’s not like Sydney is an unappealing place to play. A club forever in contention, away from the Victorian footy bubble or the intensity of passionate Perth or Adelaide, can’t lure the gun forward or defender they desperately need? We’re not saying it’s easy but other clubs have managed to find a way.

Just imagine where this list would be if they hadn’t plucked Warner at pick 39 in 2019, and Gulden at pick 32 in 2020.

They’re two of the best picks of the last decade - but surrounding them there has been very little success at the draft, and that’s hurting them.

We know neither Sydney or Geelong has rebuild for a decade. But the Cats have stayed up the top more recently by plucking young guns early (Sam De Koning, Max Holmes) and late (Lawson Humphries, Ollie Dempsey, Brad Close) on draft night.

The Swans aren’t replenishing their list in the same way. It will come back to bite them at some point... maybe now.

Seven games into his third season at Port Adelaide, and it’s fair to say that Jason Horne-Francis’ move after one year at North Melbourne has paid dividends at Alberton, massively. And it’s probably part of the reason why his old teammates showed utter disdain for him again at Adelaide Oval on Saturday evening.

The 21-year-old superstar has played an integral part in the Power’s recent resurrection from 1-3, and again made his impact felt over the weekend to accumulate 27 disposals, seven inside 50s, six clearances, 462 metres gained and a goal.

But as the three-quarter time siren loomed at the ‘Portress’, tensions boiled over Horne-Francis and his former teammates, leaving the already animated young seething with rage come the final break.

It left fellow superstar Zak Butters having to calm down the fourth-year midfielder, before club captain Connor Rozee and coach Ken Hinkley joined dialogue.

At such a crucial point in the match with the Kangaroos still within striking distance, it’s left three-time premiership Tiger Jack Riewoldt quizzing the effort required to keep Horne-Francis levelled during the critical stage of the game.

“There is a part of me that looks at three-quarter time and goes: “North Melbourne are two goals behind Port Adelaide, and you’ve got your coach, captain and vice-captain all having a discussion with one player, when there’s another 20 players,” Riewoldt told Fox Footy’s Super Saturday Live.

“Jason Horne-Francis is aware that he can lose his temper (but) that is a critical point in time where Ken Hinkley has a chance to chat to all the players, and he’s having to speak to one.

“You’ve got three leaders of your football club having to settle down one player … (you don’t cop that) every week. I think that’s why there’s the fear that sides will target Jason Horne-Francis.”

Brought to the club on a six-year deal after just one season at North Melbourne, his signing until the end of 2028 makes him a serious asset not just on the field but also on the books.

He has proven himself worth every penny to Ken Hinkley and co so far, but there’s one more coin that dual Kangaroos premiership player David King would like to see hit the floor.

“He’s worth that investment though, isn’t he? He is a serious talent,” King said.

“It’s a reasonable discussion about the level of management this guy takes. Does it match the investment? Absolutely it does, right now it does. But it wears thin after a while.

“While Ken’s prepared to do it … I’m a little bit with Jack that at some point, the penny has to drop for Jason, and for this to subside.”

Still very much one of the competition’s younger players, time will surely continue to mature one of the competitions brightest stars. If he continues playing the way he is, it’s an outburst any club would willingly cop every now and then. But even by Horne-Francis’ own admission, it’s still very much a work in progress.

“I’m still trying to learn from those moments and keep my cool a little bit more,” he told Fox Footy post-game.

“It was just a little one-time thing in the game. I just need to keep getting better at it, keep talking to people and keep finding ways I can control myself.”

The Bulldogs are in “no rush” to reward uncontracted senior coach Luke Beveridge with an extension, despite multiple impressive results early this season.

And if a situation develops where he ends up walking at the end of the year, an AFL great believes it would be “one of the great fumbles”.

Beveridge’s Bulldogs beat the Giants by 32 points on Saturday night in a scalp that saw them register 15 more inside-50s and own the territory battle. It followed a 71-point belting of St Kilda.

But irrespective of their form, the 54-year-old could be made to wait until September before an ultimate call is made.

“His clear preference is to remain at the Kennel,” Herald Sun chief football writer Jay Clark told Fox Footy’s Super Saturday Live.

“Luke Beveridge wants a contract extension. He’s not talking to any other clubs. There’s been no thought (given) to any other clubs — but they’re not in a rush on this.

“In fact, I reckon there’s some chance this might not be done until after the finals series, and asking Luke Beveridge … he said quite clearly that it’s not going to be just about wins and losses — it’s going to be about a whole lot of factors at the football club.

“And he did mention the drama at the football club. Now, that obviously involves the No.1 draft pick (Jamarra Ugle-Hagan) of course, all the different injuries they’ve had … it’s about the whole totality at the club, and particularly some of these off-field issues … I think that’ll all be factored into it.

“You’ve got to be mindful of how (he can) continue to inspire the same group, but I think he’s reinvented himself along the way. He’s certainly reinvented the team.”

Intriguingly, only four Bulldogs remain from their 2016 premiership side, and 10 from the 2021 grand final outfit that fell short of Melbourne.

Beveridge is into his 11th season at the Dogs’ helm, and Clark believes “scarring” from five elimination final losses across his tenure could play a hand in his thinking.

“I mean, is there some scarring from the elimination final losses? … I think this (decision) will be held off,” he continued on Saturday night.

“I think this is going to be a September conversation; they’re not in a rush to determine Beveridge’s future, as well as he’s going at the minute.”

The question will be whether or not the uncertainty surrounding his future progressively impacts the playing group amid a quest to return to the finals.

Triple Richmond premiership forward Jack Riewoldt pondered whether that ambiguity “added to the outside noise”.

“The fact that your coach is (potentially) going into a finals series unsigned … they’re hard to find, good (coaches), and they’ve got a good one,” Riewoldt said on Fox Footy.

“Now, granted, he’s been there for 11 years and you can talk about messaging and whatnot, but clearly (what he’s doing) is working.

“So, is this now a chance for them to remove a portion of this cloud that sits over the football club to go into finals (with their coach locked in).”

Riewoldt said the way the Dogs dismantled fellow finals-hopeful GWS — booting five unanswered in the premiership quarter to build an unassailable lead — was an indication they were possibly on a special trajectory.

“And actually, if they play like that (the way they did against GWS), they’re a good chance of winning it,” he said.

“You look at the additions to come back in, they get (Adam) Treloar and a few other key players to come back through injury.

“They’re playing good footy at the moment, and they’ve taken it up to the Giants, who many would’ve had top-four at the start of the season … why not?”

Livewire forward Cody Weightman hasn’t played this season, while superstar skipper Marcus Bontempelli only just returned from his complex calf injury.

Sam Darcy will hopefully return at some stage in the home-and-away season, while Riley Garcia will also eye an AFL recall once he’s healed of a knee ailment.

Dual flag-winner David King declared it would “be one of the great fumbles” if Beveridge was to ultimately depart at season’s end and find himself leading another club.

“He’s done a great job with what he’s had at his disposal,” King said. “I am a massive Bevo fan.

“I just think it’d be one of the great fumbles if they allowed him to coach another club next year. It really would.

“They’ve got a guy that’s taken them to the promised land; he can clearly motivate.

“They had eight players in their team (against GWS) under 20 games; they are resetting before our eyes. If they don’t recognise that internally, I don’t know what they’re watching — I really don’t.

“If you think you’re going to get better (from somewhere else), you’d want to be right.”

Clark believes the out-of-contract Bontempelli won’t be going anywhere; it’ll just be about how much he ends up pocketing on a new deal.

He raised the valid point that the 242-gamer will soon — if he hasn’t already — reach his AFL peak, questioning whether or not an expensive pay-rise is on the cards.

“I think he’ll stay,” he said. “I think it’s a matter of how much. I think there’s an interesting quirk to this story, because he’s already on $1-1.1 million (and) he’s 29.

“Now, if he is still the number-one or number-two player in the game … does he deserve a pay-rise? Because at this stage of your career, you sort of start to flatten or go down.

“Is there a world where Marcus Bontempelli deserves a pay-rise in this contract extension? Because this has taken its time, and I don’t think negotiations have fired up just yet.

“But if Luke Davies-Uniacke gets $1.3 million, what do you pay Marcus Bontempelli?”

At face value, Bontempelli is objectively worth more than Davies-Uniacke, but because of his age at the time his new deal is due, it isn’t quite that simple.

Riewoldt laid out the “two ways to look at this”.

“Is Bontempelli a player that goes ‘I want to win another premiership, I’ll take less to maybe get another player to come into your football club’?” he posed.

“Or (is it) you’re the best player in the competition, arguably you should be paid $1.5 million. So, if they go down that track, it’s a shorter contract for mine.

“I’m paying him more than what he’s on now, I’m not going ridiculously over … so maybe you’re paying him $1.2-1.4 million, with enough to still sell the story to Marcus going ‘we’ve got our eyes on A, B and C player to come to make us a better team’.

“But I’m only (signing him) for two or three years. You don’t want to be signing him on for longer than that I don’t reckon, and I don’t think Marcus wants to, either.”

Assuming he’s currently on a tad more than $1 million per season, King said it’d be “disrespectful” to offer him any less than that on a new deal.

“I think you’ve got to respect what he’s been,” he said. “This guy’s in the discussion to be the best they’ve ever had.

“I think it’d be disrespectful to offer him less than what he’s on, so that’s off the table for me, and there will be some serious money come for him.

“The longer this lasts as an open discussion, the more the money will come from elsewhere. They’ll see an opportunity, and I just in the back of my mind think ‘why isn’t this done? Why aren’t they just happy to get this guy signed?’”

Clark added that Bontempelli’s injury early in the year was one of the factors holding up the process but declared: “I just think this is an interesting crossroads because … if Luke Davies-Uniacke gets $1.3 million, he’s playing like a $1.5 million player.

“I think he stays at the Kennel. I think there’s a bit of a pay-rise in it for Marcus, and deservedly so.”

One of Essendon’s biggest list conundrums this year will be on a free agent stuck on the sidelines through injury.

Sam Draper started his ‘contract year’ with a bang, booting seven goals and averaging 13.4 disposals from his first five games.

But the Bombers big man suffered a cruel blow against West Coast in Round 6, rupturing his Achilles in a season-ending injury.

It came a week after fellow Essendon ruck Nick Bryan ruptured his ACL, making it a shocking double Bombers blow.

Todd Goldstein, 36, came in for the Bombers’ Anzac Day clash against Collingwood – and performed admirably. But the absence of the top-two rucks, especially Draper, was felt on Friday afternoon at the MCG.

Draper has drawn rival interest from the Adelaide Crows, but Herald Sun journalist Jon Ralph reported that Essendon was “determined to retain” Draper, with the club to let the ruck focus on his recovery and rehabilitation before knuckling down on contract talks.

But intriguingly, when the AFL released its official list of free agents earlier this month, Draper was listed as an unrestricted free agent, not restricted. That’s because he dropped out of Essendon’s top pay bracket after the club re-signed players, including Jye Caldwell, over the off-season.

It means Draper now has total leverage over the Bombers and could push them for a hefty pay rise.

“The decision for Essendon is: Do you reward him with a big fat contract he was waiting for off five weeks of career-best football?” Ralph asked on Fox Footy.

“If I was his management, I’d be saying: ‘Yes try and get the best contract.’ But with uncertainty over Tom De Koning and Darcy Cameron, I’d just be holding off right now. You haven’t got anything to gain in terms of holding off for a couple more months and seeing what else might be out there at the end of the season.”

Triple premiership Tiger Jack Riewoldt warned Essendon against handing Draper a straight five-year contract.

“We’re probably going to see him early next year, so you don’t go: ‘We’re giving him money for a free year.’ The money that he’s going to earn this year has already been built into a contract. So I think that plays in Draper’s favour,” Riewoldt told Fox Footy on Thursday night.

“(But) I’d be buyer beware with five years. I’m happy to give you five years, but it’s three with a couple of years with triggers. Whether that’s games, whether that’s performance based.

“The monetary thing? I think he’s probably worth around that $800,000 mark. If a side is willing to pay five years, $900,000-plus for Sam Draper, it’s probably a question you’ve got to ask.

“The other factor in this is Todd Goldstein is 36 and he’s their No.1 ruck now – and Nick Bryan we won’t see for 12 months with an ACL.

“I think they’d want to keep him, but I would give him three years with a couple of triggers – and triggers that are realistic that he can actually get to five years.”

If a week is a long time in footy, three weeks is an eternity.

And it’s hard to remember how positive most of us felt about St Kilda three weeks ago, when they’d just beaten Geelong, demolished Richmond and upset Port Adelaide away in consecutive weeks.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera was adding zeroes to his next contract every week. Jack Sinclair was leading the coaches’ votes. And Ross Lyon was a genius, squeezing strong performances out of a just-OK list once again.

But it turns out that just-OK list is still a problem, because in three consecutive weeks against admittedly high-quality opposition, the Saints have looked poor.

The 28-point margin in the Gather Round loss to GWS understates how uncompetitive that one was after halftime, while the 71-point blowout to the Bulldogs and now the 45-point defeat to Brisbane have been incredibly disappointing.

Saturday’s performance clearly frustrated Lyon, who was testy in his post-match press conference , including over the surprising early substitution of Hugo Garcia.

But given how they looked in the first half, it made some sense.

“The worrying signs for me is last week in the first half, 11 inside 50s. This week? Nineteen. There’s not much going right early in games for St Kilda offensively,” Jack Riewoldt said on Fox Footy on Saturday evening.

“Alarm bells, for me, for St Kilda. Just looking at their list, if I was a Saints supporter driving to Marvel Stadium, I would’ve thought today was the chance that maybe they could’ve knocked off a side that’s had the wood over them the last eight times.

“We saw St Kilda take down Geelong in a masterclass coaching performance from Ross – and I had a little bit of belief maybe we would’ve seen something like that today. It’s a Lions side that has been wounded and were there for the picking – and unfortunately St Kilda couldn’t get it done.”

David King added: “When you come up against a high-quality side like Brisbane, you can’t afford to get a lot wrong – and they were just too easy to move the ball against.

“You talk about the flat inside 50 number, but how do you get it inside 50? You’ve either got to win it at clearance and get the territory that way, or you’ve got to lock it in. They did neither … There’s a real problem there in terms of the system. They got belted up.

“Once they (the Lions) won the ball back, the Saints couldn’t win it back. So I think it’s a real concern for Ross Lyon, how are you winning the ball back and where?

“I think their weapons are on the edges, that’s the problem. While they build a midfield that can actually go head-to-head with the quality of McCluggage and Neale – I just think there’s a distinct class gap.”