With models continuing to call for a historic Florida snowfall and forecasters notching up the odds for an "impactful snowstorm" or ice storm, Tallahassee is going into planning mode. Saturday morning, forecasters gave the odds of about a 1-in-3 chance of snowfall greater than an inch in Florida's capital city. That comes with the possible threat of freezing rain and icy conditions. Forecast models continue to show a parade of snow and ice across the region with the trusted Euro model even calling for almost 5 inches of snow. "The chances of a high impact winter weather event is increasing for our area next week for the possible wintry precip and bitterly cold temperatures," a Tallahassee-based National Weather Service forecaster wrote in the morning forecast discussion. In addition to lighting up social media, the prospect of wild winter weather has put local officials on alert as they prepare for the almost unthinkable in Florida: A rare snow day or ice threat that is rarely seen in these parts. It all begins with a heavy rain and marginal severe weather threat Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning ahead of a bitter cold front. "A low-end threat for isolated strong to damaging gusts, heavy rainfall, and perhaps a brief tornado or two will exist during this time frame," NWS forecasters write. Then comes the coldest temperatures of the year. From Monday to Thursday the city will see lows in the mid to upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Add in a brisk north wind and wind chills would hit the teens, which would necessitate a Cold Weather Advisory and possible Extreme Cold watches or warnings. Then comes the main event. The official Tallahassee forecast for Monday night includes a 20% chance of snowstorms after 1 a.m. On Tuesday, there's a slight chance of snow showers before 1 p.m., then rain showers likely. Tuesday night there's a 70 percent chance of rain and snow showers before 1 a.m., then a chance of rain showers, snow showers, and freezing rain through the evening. Leon County Schools has already alerted parents that it will be monitoring the weather over the weekend and would send a text update to parents on Monday if the school schedule would be interrupted. Meanwhile, Leon County officials are "actively preparing to ensure community safety and continuity of operations" in advance of a possible freak Florida winter storm. Emergency management is conducting regular briefings with the National Weather Service. "There is a 30-40% chance of wintry precipitation, including snow, sleet, or freezing rain, across the region from late Tuesday into Wednesday morning," County Manager Vince Long wrote in an emailed briefing to county commissioners. "While significant accumulation is unlikely, icy roads and hazardous travel conditions may occur, and our County teams are taking this time to thoroughly prepare and communicate in advance of wintry conditions."
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