It’s a weird time in St. Louis.

Opening Day is usually a holiday in this baseball-lovin’ town, but news of the Cardinals’ “transition season” — combined with two years of missing the postseason — has dampened the spirits in Baseball Heaven. The Cardinals find themselves mired in the middle of competing and resetting: President of baseball operations John Mozeliak will step down at the end of the year and advisor Chaim Bloom will succeed him. The roster, except for Paul Goldschmidt’s departure, looks to be more or less the same. Player development is the current focus over winning ballgames. Like I said, it’s a weird time.

This is not to suggest the Cardinals can’t develop and win at the same time — Mozeliak believes it’s possible, at least. But the mixed messaging hasn’t helped clear up fan frustration and confusion regarding the direction of the franchise.

A new season is on the horizon — and while you can’t predict ball, as you know — it’s safe to say this year will be different. Whether that’s a good or a bad thing? We’re about to find out.

Bold prediction



The Cardinals hover around .500 for most of the first half, leading Mozeliak to buy at the trade deadline — even if that path isn’t best for the organization’s long-term player development goal.

Projected starting lineup



Health is the name of the game for Nootbaar, who has yet to play over 120 games in each of his three full seasons due to various injuries. He’s one of the key players the Cardinals have promised at-bats to as they evaluate their roster for the future. He’ll spend time in center field as well to ensure that.

The Cardinals are hopeful that moving Contreras to first base full-time will increase his offensive production even more. When healthy, he was the Cardinals’ best bat last year (15 homers, .848 OPS over 84 games).

Expect another year of Donovan around the diamond. He’ll be used as a super-utility once more as Marmol works to find consistent at-bats for a variety of players.

Raise your hand if you had Arenado as the Cardinals’ Opening Day third baseman this year. OK, now put it down, you liar.

Burleson’s high contact rate and developing slug made him the team’s most consistent hitter last year. He won’t start every day — the club needs to mix in at-bats for Nolan Gorman as well — but the fact that he’s in the Opening Day lineup over Gorman says plenty about what the Cardinals think of his bat.

Herrera’s bat might be one of the team’s best this year (and given the team’s emphasis on offense this season, that shouldn’t be discounted). But questions will continue to swirl about his defense, specifically controlling the run game. Herrera ranked in the 14th percentile last year for caught stealing above average at just 5 percent.

After two turbulent seasons between the majors and Triple A, will this be the year Walker finds stability and consistency, both on the roster and at the plate? The Cardinals certainly hope so.

A standout spring training cemented Scott on the Opening Day roster. The bat played in spring, and the speed is obviously there. Now it’s a matter of putting it all together. If so, St. Louis will have a legitimate threat on the bases.

After finishing as a Gold Glove finalist last year, Winn returns to the heart of the infield. Defense won’t be an issue for him — he’s proved plenty already as one of the top rising shortstops in the league. Whether he can build off last year’s offensive campaign — a .267 average, .730 OPS and 15 homers — is the bigger question.

Projected rotation



Back for his second season in St. Louis, Gray preferred to stay with the Cardinals — even amid talks of a reset. He’ll be the Opening Day starter on Thursday against his former team, the Minnesota Twins.

Fedde is making just $7.5 million this year, a straight steal when factoring in the starting pitching market’s astronomical prices. The Cardinals will be happy if he puts up similar numbers to last year (31 starts, 3.30 ERA, 177 1/3 innings). Quality innings will be key for Fedde, who could be an easy trade at the deadline if St. Louis falters by July.

Pallante’s 3.47 ERA was the lowest in the rotation during the second half of last season. Can he repeat that success? A stable schedule and a defined role as a starter should help with that.

As he enters the final year of his two-year, $40 million extension, Mikolas knows he must pitch better than he did the past two seasons. The Cardinals value his durability — he’s made 30-plus starts in each of the past three seasons — but the execution will need to be much better than the 5.35 ERA he posted last year.

After a breakout second half as a multi-inning reliever, the Cardinals are giving Liberatore — a former top starting pitching prospect — one more chance in the rotation as they look to evaluate internal starting pitching options. He’ll be the team’s fifth starter until further notice. The Cardinals will switch to a six-man rotation on April 16, with veteran Steven Matz set to slot in.

Projected top relievers



Another player who most people figured would be traded, but we digress. Helsley returns for his 10th year in the org — and final season before free agency. As one of baseball’s top closers last year (and MLB’s saves leader with 49), Helsley’s value has never been higher.

The lone free-agent signing of the offseason (the Cardinals inked Maton to a one-year, $2 million deal in mid-March), Maton can fill a multitude of roles, but setting up for Helsley looks like his best bet.

Romero was very effective as the lefty setup reliever last year, though did seem to run out of steam near the end of the season (he posted a 2.43 ERA over 43 games in the first half, compared to a 5.40 ERA over 22 games in the second half). If he can sustain his performance, the Cardinals should again have one of the better bullpens in the league.

How the Cardinals stack up



“Hope” is from Stephen J. Nesbitt’s annual Hope-O-Meter fan optimism survey. “Farm” is from Keith Law’s farm system rankings. “Bats” and “arms” are from Jim Bowden’s ranking of Opening Day lineups and rotations. “PWR” is from The Athletic’spreseason power rankings. Team projections come from Austin Mock, while Jake Ciely provided player projections.

CONTINUE READING
RELATED ARTICLES