Four teams remain: The Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. Two of them will soon have their hopes of a Super Bowl appearance dashed. Two of them will face off on Feb. 9 in New Orleans. But who will it be? Several of our staff members decided to make picks ahead of the conference championship games for which teams they predict will face off in the Superdome and which one will emerge victorious.

Before we get to picks, though, one quirk of the betting odds: The Eagles are currently the favorite to win the Super Bowl, but that can be attributed to the fact oddsmakers are more confident in Philly’s ability to make it through the Commanders than they are of either the Chiefs or Bills making it past each other. Once the AFC Championship is won, that victor will likely jump the Eagles as the favorite to win it all.

Odds for AFC Championship winner

Odds for NFC Championship winner

Staff picks for Super Bowl 59 matchup and winner

Chiefs over Eagles: The popular pick

Josh Kendall: “Chiefs over Eagles. Betting against Kansas City just feels like wishful thinking at this point. Philadelphia will get by the Commanders on talent alone, but then it’s a battle of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid against Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni. That’s not a tough call.”

Dan Santaromita: “Chiefs over Eagles. I could see both conference championship games going either way, but I’m more confident that the AFC winner will win the Super Bowl. My default logic remains intact: Pick Patrick Mahomes’ team.”

Mike Hume: “Chiefs over Eagles. The logic is pretty simple. The Chiefs are the least flawed of the four remaining teams, and whoever comes out of the AFC should win the Super Bowl.

“If Jayden Daniels gets the Commanders to the Super Bowl in Year 1, just go ahead and commission the statue now. But I don’t think the Eagles’ defense lets that happen, and I’m pretty confident Saquon Barkley is going to run for eleventy billion yards against their run defense (third worst in the league). But I also don’t know if Hurts (and his hurt knee) can outduel either Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes in the Big Game.

“In the AFC, it’s tighter. Ding the Chiefs’ offense if you want, but the defense allowed just 19.2 points per game. Conversely, this a good (21.6 ppg) Buffalo defense, but not as elite as it has been in past seasons (18.2 ppg or fewer since 2021).

So now it’s back to Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes, and I’m just not ready to pick against the champs. Sure, there’s the high-wire walk/weekly escape acts of Kansas City’s regular season. And yes, point margins do matter in power ratings and bookmaking. But don’t forget to include strength of schedule — the Chiefs played nine games against playoff teams over that stretch (plus the Bengals and Falcons), while the Bills faced five. So, to me, it’s notable the Chiefs still finished with just one real loss (Week 18 does not count), regardless of the margin of victory.

“Allen and Buffalo have a chance to make a statement Sunday, but Mahomes and the Chiefs have already made it. Several times. Going into Sunday at least, the Bills are still the Bills, and the Chiefs are still the champs.”

A flirtation with the Commanders! … And capitulation to the Chiefs

Austin Mock: “If I look at this purely from a betting perspective, I think there is tiny value on the Commanders at +850. My model gives them around an 11% chance to win the Super Bowl and I’m not factoring in a downgrade to Jalen Hurts after suffering a knee injury, so maybe those odds should be a little higher.

“However, if I’m ignoring the betting market, I’m going with the Chiefs over Eagles. It’s Patrick Mahomes. It’s Andy Reid. It might not always look pretty, but when it comes down to winning football games, there is no one I trust more to get a win in the playoffs.”

Chiefs over Commanders

Jon Greenberg: “Chiefs over Commanders: Yes, the Commanders pull off the upset in Philadelphia and the Chiefs continue their maddening run over the AFC. But Washington’s luck ends in the Super Bowl as Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Andy Reid have enough magic left to make it a three-peat.”

Bills over Eagles and Josh Allen MVP

Zac Jackson: “Of course the Chiefs will find a way, but I had picked Buffalo before, and I’ll stick with it. Josh Allen wins the MVP with a late rally and touchdown keeper to beat the Eagles, 27-24.”

Brandon Funston: “Bills over Eagles. If the BUF/KC game turns into a track meet, which it has in each of their previous three playoff encounters (game total average of 63.7), I don’t think KC is built to hang — 30 points was its high water mark this year (twice), while Buffalo averaged 30.7. As for WAS/PHI, the Eagles have a clear defense and experience advantage, and the Commanders haven’t shown they can stop Saquon Barkley. Bills finally get off the schneid in the Super Bowl with a narrow victory.”

Eagles over Bills and Saquon Barkley MVP

Hannah Vanbiber: “Would I advise anyone to bet against the Kansas City Chiefs with real money? Absolutely not. Am I going to regret this? Probably. I was going to go with Chiefs over Commanders because Daniels and company have shown they are most at home in an upset. But Jon picked that outcome, so I’m going to go out on a limb and make my own bed here. (Sorry for the mixed metaphor.)

If the Hurts-Barkley wagon is intact on Sunday, they should roll through the Commanders’ weak run defense. And the Bills have shown they can beat the Chiefs, even if that wasn’t the same team. Allen’s number has got to get called someday, and he is playing this season like a man running out of time. Saquon Barkley will run the Eagles straight to the Lombardi Trophy.”