The Tampa Bay Lightning (34-20-4) visit the Washington Capitals (38-13-8) Saturday at Capital One Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET (NHL Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Lightning vs. Capitals odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions .

The Lightning picked up a 3-0 victory Oct. 26 at Amalie Arena as moderate home favorites (-159) with the Under (6.5) cashing in the first meeting as G Andrei Vasilevskiy turned aside all 32 shots he faced for the shutout.

The Capitals won 5-4 in the second meeting as moderate road underdogs (+139) with the Over (6) hitting Nov. 27. LW Alex Ovechkin missed that victory due to his broken leg. But he’s back now and scored 7 goals in 8 February games. Ovi has 883 career NHL goals, 11 shy of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record.

Tampa Bay enters on a 7-game win streak, as offense, defense and goaltending have all come together nicely. The Lightning are outscoring the opposition 31-12 in the impressive streak, cashing Under in each of the past 3 outings. The most recent win was a 3-0 shutout Thursday of the Calgary Flames, covering as home favorites (-212).

After Washington pounded the favored (-125) Edmonton Oilers 7-3 at home Sunday with Ovi recording a hat trick, the Caps dropped the next 2 games. They lost 3-1 to Calgary Tuesday as big favorites (-201) and lost 5-2 to the St. Louis Blues Thursday as decent favorites (-152) — both games in D.C.

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Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:25 a.m. ET.

Lightning at Capitals projected goalies



Vasilevskiy has been on fire in February, going 7-0-1 with a 2.15 GAA and .940 SV%, including a shutout of the Flames last time out. He stopped all 28 shots he faced Thursday, and he has allowed just 2 goals on 89 shots in the past 3 starts.

Thompson allowed 3 goals on 25 shots in the 2-goal setback to Flames Tuesday, and he has alternated losses and wins in each of his past 6 starts. He is 2-1-2 with a 3.59 GAA and .878 SV% in 5 February outings, allowing 3 or more goals in each of the starts this month.

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Lightning at Capitals picks and predictions



Prediction



Moneyline



The LIGHTNING (-110) are the play in this matinee contest at the Capitals, who have been a bit shaky lately. Speaking of which, Thompson received a contract extension, and he has been red-hot for most of the season. However, he has started to show some signs of letting up lately, conceding 3 or more goals in 5 straight starts.

Puck line/Against the spread



The Lightning +1.5 (-250) will cost 2½ times the potential return — that’s a bit on the expensive side.

PASS , unless you’re a little adventurous. The LIGHTNING -1.5 (+ 220 ) – ALTERNATE SPREAD is worth playing lightly as Tampa Bay has been on fire lately.

Over/Under



The Over/Under 6 should come right down on the number, so AVOID playing the default option.

However, if you really want some action on the total, UNDER 6.5 (- 145 ) – ALTERNATE TOTAL is worth a roll of the dice, as Vasilevskiy has been hot in February. Plus, while Thompson has struggled lately, he has had a great body of work overall.

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