The
Tampa Bay Rays have one of the best collections of younger pitching prospects in the game, but their top seven prospects are all position players. That’s partly a reflection of the high attrition rate of teenage pitchers, and partly the great work their scouts have done across the board. They have a couple of potential stars who aren’t on the top 100 and need to either take a step forward in their development this year or just prove something at a higher level, including their 2024 first-rounder,
Theo Gillen, who’s shifting to a new position in center field.
(Note: Tools are graded on a 20-80 scouting scale; ages as of July 1, 2025.)Height: 6-2 | Weight: 180 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22
Williams is the most enigmatic prospect in the minors to me: He does absolutely everything you’d want a position-player prospect to do, except he strikes out way too often — he does all of those other things despite a 28.5 percent strikeout rate in Double A last year that should be, if not disqualifying, a major demerit on his scouting report. Williams is a plus defender at short with an easy plus arm. He has 70 speed and shows above-average to plus power, hitting 20 homers for the second year in a row. He doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone much at all — his chase rate last year was 22 percent according to Synergy Sports, which puts him well below the overall
MLB rate, but when he does chase, he nearly always whiffs, and he also misses pitches in the zone more than you’d like. It’s a decision issue rather than a mechanical one, but Williams performs so well in spite of the whiffs that changing his approach risks taking away some of the production as well.His 2024 season may also undersell his abilities, as he was hit on the hand by a pitch in June, missed just six days, and wasn’t the same hitter afterward. He was hitting .294/.376/.552 with a 27.1 percent strikeout rate at the time of the injury, then hit .220/.324/.382 with a 29.4 percent strikeout rate after his return, which makes me suspect he was more hurt than he let on and just played through it. At worst, he’s a shortstop with plus power, defense, and baserunning value who might just hit for a lower average because of the strikeouts. That’s a 4-WAR player in a full season because of the value of the position, and I wouldn’t rule out him getting beyond that with even tiny adjustments to his swing choices.
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 180 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22
Taylor had a weird first full year in pro ball in two ways — he ended up hitting for more power with less contact than I think anyone reasonably expected, and the way he got to all those strikeouts (24.8 percent in High A, 36.8 percent in Double A) was kind of unusual as well. Taylor hits the ball hard and ended up with a great line in High A beyond the strikeouts, hitting .269/.389/.513 with 44 extra-base hits in 84 games, before struggling in 30 games in Double A, where he hit .194/.290/.435 — still showing power, but of course with way too many Ks. He did raise his bat path a little, making it steeper to manufacture some more lift, which might explain the increase in strikeouts — he actually doesn’t chase much at all, and he doesn’t miss a ton in-zone, but when he does expand, it’s kind of disastrous for him.
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 240 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Age: 21
Isaac lost about 15 pounds before the 2024 season and was marginally better in the field, although I’d still bet on the heavyset first baseman to end up at DH eventually. He still projects as a platoon player as he looks terrible against left-handed pitchers. Isaac has plus power and is willing to take a walk, hitting .287/.381/.535 as a 20-year-old in High A last year before a late-summer promotion to Double A, where he hit .211/.346/.349, walking in 15.8 percent of his PA but striking out in 40.6 percent.His time at the higher level was brief (31 games), but worrisome, as he got destroyed by better velocity and chased a ton of breaking stuff down-and-in or below the zone. He’s very upright from his setup through contact — or lack thereof — which may be hurting his ability to stay with pitches moving down. It’s not all bad news here, as Isaac was very young for Double A, still got on base, and killed right-handed pitching at High A before the promotion, so there’s a foundation for some kind of future big-league value. If he could play a position, or made more contact even against righties, I would be more bullish, but I see a platoon DH or at best a platoon first baseman.
4. Theo Gillen, IF
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 195 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 19
Gillen was Tampa’s first-round pick last season out of an Austin-area high school, boasting one of the best hit tools among the high school crop in 2024 along with plus-plus speed and a chance for some power. He has a pretty, left-handed swing that produces hard contact to all fields, with above-average power in BP that hasn’t carried over so far. He’s a strong kid and well put together, with harder contact and more in-game power very likely as he matures. Gillen was a high school shortstop but had surgery on the labrum in his throwing arm and his arm strength would push him to second base, so the Rays are moving him to center, where his 70 speed should make him at least an above-average defender and perhaps a lot more, given how positive the early reports on his defense were. He could be a star if he hits as expected, and should go out to Low-A Charleston after playing eight games there to finish the regular season.
5. Brailer Guerrero, OF
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 215 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 19
Signed for $3.7 million in January 2023, Guerrero hit .330/.452/.466 in the Florida Complex League last year, a cheery comeback after he had shoulder surgery just seven games into his pro career the previous summer. It’s real, now power, at least a 60 and trending up, with plus bat speed and the exit velocities to back it up. He’s not just a power bat, with some feel to hit already. He has to balance his development between the big power and the need to continue to refine his approach as he faces better pitching. He played center and right in the FCL, with the arm for either, and his future is way more likely to come in right field. He could be the best hitter the Rays have produced in a very long time.
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 215 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Age: 22
Morgan is a 70 defender at first and has excellent feel to hit, but may lack the power to profile as more than a solid regular. The Rays started the LSU product at Low A, but moved him up quickly to High A, where he hit .371/.443/.558 in 53 games before a late promotion to Double A. Across all three stops, he walked exactly as often as he struck out, 11 percent of the time. It’s a real contact-oriented, all-fields approach, with as many hits going to left field as he had to right in 2024. He’s strong enough for 15 or so homers a year; that’s just not his approach, and it’s not clear if the Rays can get him there without taking away some of his ability to hit for average. He has everyday floor, though, and should be someone’s regular at first by 2026.
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 190 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 20
Smith was part of the return from the
Mariners in the
Randy Arozarena deal. He is a strong prospect, with a great feel to hit already after the Mariners got rid of the arm bar in his swing, loosening him up to improve his contact rate and quality. He hit .288/.401/.473 last season between the Mariners’ and Rays’ Low-A affiliates and stole 41 bases in 47 attempts, with 55 speed and power. He shows good ball/strike recognition and has started to pick up breaking stuff more often, although that will probably be his biggest developmental hurdle going forward. I think he’s a solid regular with a decent shot to be a 55, ending up a high-OBP right fielder with 15-18 homers a year.
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 225 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 19
Harrison sits 95 with an easy plus changeup. He has a good body, command of the fastball, good quality to it, and he’s a decent breaking ball away from being a No. 2 starter or better. He stays tall over the rubber and gets out front to help the fastball play up; it zips in toward the plate and hitters are often left on their heels. The changeup is comedy, deceptive with big tumble, and Low-A hitters had no shot at it. He barely used the pitch so he could work more on his slider and on fastball command, but of the 24 swings on changeups Synergy Sports data recorded, hitters whiffed on 16 (67 percent). He’s got a little slider right now that’s short and not that effective; I don’t think he can really spin the ball that well, and the cutter he messed around with in his last start of the season may be the better option for a third pitch. He’s got the size and two pitches to be a mid-rotation starter, and the ceiling to be more if he finds one more weapon.
9. Gary Gill Hill, RHP
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 160 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 20
Gill Hill was the Rays’ sixth-round pick in 2022 out of a high school in Westchester County, N.Y., signing before he even turned 18. The Rays have taken their time with him, sending him to the FCL in 2023 and Low A last year. He fills up the zone with 93-97-mph fastballs, coming from a slot a little below three-quarters that gets some sweeping action to his slider, and throwing a plus changeup that has some late fade away from lefties. He’s had some issues maintaining a consistent arm slot, and he pitches a lot more east-west because of the slot and the stuff. He walked just 6.2 percent of batters he faced last year, and his groundball rate crept up to 48 percent, so even though he doesn’t have a wipeout breaking ball he should be a guy who limits walks and homers, missing enough bats with the changeup to be a good No. 4 starter or maybe a No. 3.
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 175 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 20
Suarez came over from Miami in the trade that sent
Xavier Edwards and J.T. Chargois to the
Marlins back in 2022; the Rays scouted him in the DSL and liked his arm and delivery. He spent all of 2024 in Low-A Charleston and showed exquisite control, walking 21 in 111 2/3 innings (4.7 percent of batters) while working primarily with a fastball, curve, and slider/cutter that he added last year. His changeup is very rudimentary and he barely used it; lefties actually hit him less than righties did last year, but that’s not likely to continue and he’ll have to keep working on the changeup. His delivery is very clean and repeatable, so it’s surprising that he doesn’t have plus command, but it’s more average and he’ll also need to improve that as he moves up. It looks right and he saw his velocity tick up in 2024, so things are moving in the right direction — and he only just turned 20. I think it might be more mid-rotation than better, just given his present skill level and areas where he needs work.
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 200 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 23
Hopkins was one of the two prospects Tampa Bay acquired from Seattle in the Arozarena trade, and he’s the higher risk/higher reward guy of the pair. He’s a low three-quarters guy with a loose, very fast arm, working up to 98-99 with movement, and can spin two breaking balls, led by a slider he uses almost as much as the fastball. He’s seen his control tick up already in his year-plus in pro ball — and he’s only been a full-time pitcher for less than three years. Hopkins had no trouble with lefties last year, but the long look they get at the ball and his lack of a specific pitch for them does increase the risk that he’ll have wider platoon splits as he moves up, which would give him a high-leverage relief upside rather than a mid-rotation starter one. If he finds a way to keep getting lefties out, he’s at least a No. 3 starter.
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 170 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 24
Yes, Simpson might be the fastest man in baseball, or at least in the minors. It’s truly 80 speed. He stole 104 bases in 121 attempts in the minors last year, and 94 in 109 attempts the year before. It’s game-altering speed. He never strikes out, coming in around 9 percent in each of the last two years, and since he’s an 80+ runner, any ball he puts in play could become a single. However, he also has grade 20 power, with one homer in the last two years total, and an isolated power (SLG – AVG) in his minor-league career of .049. He will play in the majors and maybe do so for a long time. He might be Billy Hamilton, who played in 11 seasons in the majors and whose production was worth 10 WAR, although even Hamilton had more power than Simpson, with 14 homers in 572 minor-league games. I get the excitement, and if I played fantasy baseball I’d want him on my team, but in real major-league terms, I find it hard to see him as more than a 0.5 WAR/year player.
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 190 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22
Curet is still working as a starter, sitting 96-97 with at least a 55 slider, while his changeup remains a work in progress — mostly because he doesn’t use it enough, as he can get huge fade and tumble on it, generating some very ugly swings. He’s got a thick build and looks like he should be durable, with easy velocity, but his control remains 45ish and he falls behind in the count too easily. He can still just blow guys away even in Double A, and the path of least resistance would be to put him in the bullpen and let him throw 100. There’s still enough here to see good starter upside that the Rays should exhaust that opportunity before sending him to relief.
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 210 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Age: 26
Seymour is a fifth starter or bulk reliever right now, posting a 2.35 ERA last year between Double A and Triple A at age 25. He’s 89-92 with plus control and command, a 55 changeup, an average or so cutter, and some funk in the delivery to add deception, with good feel to pitch that lets him get more out of that unimpressive arsenal. He allowed 11 homers last year, all to right-handed batters, but eight of them were solo shots since he held all hitters to a .264 OBP on the season. He gets compared quite a bit to Ryan Yarbrough, another lefty with marginal stuff who’s now thrown over 750 big-league innings, with 4.5 career bWAR to date. Seymour might have a little more balance in his repertoire, but Yarbrough’s career is probably a good expectation for him.
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 224 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22
Baumeister was part of the return from the
Orioles for
Zach Eflin, maybe even the third-best of the prospects at the time, but he took off after the Rays acquired him, mostly by attacking guys way more with his fastball, which also cut down on his walks. In 29 innings in High A with Tampa, he struck out 44 and walked five, a walk rate of 4.8 percent, down from 14 percent while he was with the Orioles at the same level. His arm is fast and he’ll ride that top rail with the four-seamer, then go down or down-and-away (to a lefty) with changeups, along with an average slider that’s just a little small. He has a big honkin’ curveball that he used more before the trade, but it’s slower and I think better hitters will see it coming all day; shelving that to throw more fastballs is probably a net positive for called and swinging strikes. I’m intrigued by where he goes from here. Baumeister was a legitimate prospect out of high school and never really developed while at Florida State, but the arm strength is still here and the delivery is good enough to start. I like him a bit more than the ranking implies; it’s just too short a sample of good pitching to list him higher in a deep system.
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 210 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 24
Keegan looks like a strong backup catcher who might play every day for some teams. He’s worked hard on his defense and game-calling to overcome what are probably just a 45 glove and 50 arm. He hit much better in Double A than I expected, even catching up to good velocity and making good contact in the zone, enough to project some bench bat value beyond his ability to catch. Contenders are probably going to want more defensive value than Keegan can provide, but as a part-time catcher/first base backup/right-handed bench bat, he should have a long career.
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 180 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 21
Barrios was the return from Milwaukee for pitcher
Aaron Civale, a one-for-one trade thanks to Barrios’ easy-plus defense at shortstop. His swing is good and he has excellent bat-to-ball skills, striking out 11.7 percent of the time in Low A last year, with no power still in his second year at the level. He hit .288/.342/.367 on the year and seemed to wear down as the summer went on. He’s not slight or weak, and he should be able to hit the ball harder than he does. I love the glove and the profile of the high-contact, 70 defender at short, but he’s going to have to find a way to improve his contact quality to be more than an emergency call-up.
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 185 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 22
Pitre was the Rays’ second-round pick in 2024 and actually had a higher average exit velocity at Kentucky than his teammate,
Ryan Waldschmidt, who went right after the end of the first round to the
Diamondbacks. Pitre has a very short swing and tends to come down at the ball, putting the ball on the ground too often, but if he can elevate the ball a little more he’s likely to hit for high averages at least. It’s second base only if he’s going to play every day, with utility infield more likely in the end because of the groundball tendency.
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 195 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 23
Horvath came from Baltimore in the Eflin trade, and after a mediocre start at High-A Aberdeen, he was even worse for Double-A Bowling Green, hitting .221/.291/.381 and striking out over one-third of the time. He’s a very good athlete with plus bat speed and plus raw power, and he doesn’t swing and miss excessively, yet he hasn’t put all of those ingredients together into production in either batting average or power yet. He could definitely use a two-strike approach, to pick just one element. He’s mostly played third base in the minors, with a little second base and outfield; right field is far and away his most likely home. He’s in a good system for development, but the Rays’ folks have their work cut out for them given the discrepancy between Horvath’s tools and his results.
20. Jose Urbina, RHP
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 180 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 19
Urbina can touch 100 mph and sits 95-97 with a very easy delivery, throwing a short mid-80s slider and occasional curveball, but he lags behind in control and overall feel to pitch. He walked 25 in 48 innings in the FCL, then made four starts in Low A where he walked just four in 17 innings but gave up four homers, which isn’t a tradeoff I would have recommended. He turned 19 in November and has a ton of time to develop, but the list of needs is long, from command to a third pitch to tightening up the slider. Right now it looks very relieverish.
Others of note
Right-hander
Dylan Lesko went from first-rounder in 2022 to almost a throw-in in the trade that sent
Jason Adam to the
Padres. He’s got a plus changeup and a high-spin curveball, but he hasn’t had any control since he returned from Tommy John surgery in 2023 and had his worst showing yet after the Rays got him, with 23 walks in 14 1/3 innings in High A. … Shortstop
Adrian Santana is a 60 defender with excellent bat-to-ball skills and 20 power, slugging .305 in Low A last year and zero homers in 103 games. … Lefty
Joe Rock worked as a starter with Triple-A Durham, giving up too much hard contact but racking up 139 2/3 innings and doing enough against righties to see him as a solid middle relief option. … Outfielder
Homer Bush Jr. came with Lesko in the Adam trade and is the most likely big leaguer of the three players the Rays got (along with teenage catcher
J.D. Gonzalez, who was just way too young and raw for Low A). Bush is a 70 runner who makes a lot of contact with 30 power, hitting .272/.363/.363 as a college product in Low A last year. He could be a fourth outfielder. …
Cooper Kinney might surface as a bench player because he makes enough hard contact to hit for some average, but he’s not a true utility infielder because he can only handle second or third, not shortstop.
2025 impact
Seymour and Rock will likely pitch some innings for the Rays this year, probably in long relief or as spot starters. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Simpson come up later this season, even just to work as a pinch-runner late in games.
The fallen
Brock Jones had huge tools and seemed like a great pick for the Rays in the second round in 2022, even with questions about his ability to hit. Those questions have been answered: he can’t hit, going .224/.326/.445 last year as a 23-year-old repeating High A, with a 38 percent strikeout rate. I was way too optimistic.
Sleeper
Harrison is the leader of that big group of pitching prospects, and he’s maybe a half-grade of breaking ball away from being a top 100 guy.
Additional top prospect coverage
