The official start of the 2025 tropical storm and hurricane season is right around the corner and many forecasters are predicting another active year. Tropical meteorologists at Colorado State University released a prediction last month of 17 named storms, with nine of them becoming hurricanes. The forecast also states that four of the hurricanes will be major, which is a Category 3 or higher.

Based on the 30-year average from 1991 to 2020, the number of named storms is 14, with seven of them becoming hurricanes. There is also an average of three major hurricanes.

The Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season officially begins June 1 and continues through Nov. 30. However, within the last 10 years, there has been at least one named storm that formed in May. This may be a new trend, as there were only three years from 2005 to 2014 when there was a named storm prior to June 1. For 2025, hurricane forecasters are indicating that the chances are higher than normal for the formation of the first named storm prior to June 1.

Sea-surface temperatures have been warming, especially in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters. The latest information has ocean waters at least several degrees above average levels. For tropical storms and hurricanes to form in these regions, ocean temperatures need to be at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit. During the summer season over the last several years, average sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean, as well as the Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico), have been at record levels.

As of early May, ocean waters in these regions are close to 80 degrees. By the way, during the peak of the hurricane season in early September last year, ocean temperatures were at record levels with readings in the mid-to-upper 80s.

The earliest named storm on record formed Jan. 3, 1938. In 1966, Hurricane Alma was the earliest major hurricane to form in the Atlantic Ocean, which occurred June 8.

The 2024 Atlantic and Caribbean season was one of the most active ones in recorded history. Last year’s season had 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes. Five of the storms were at least a Category 3. The strongest hurricane last year was Milton with 180 miles per hour maximum sustained winds. That storm experienced very rapid intensification, and it was the fourth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic on record and the strongest ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico (America).

Milton made landfall last October on Florida’s western coastline less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene hit the state’s Big Bend region, causing widespread destruction. Total damage for the 2024 hurricane and tropical storm season was $130.2 billion, making it the third-costliest season in history.

Last year was also a tough one for major disasters. According to NOAA, there were 27 separate weather and climate disasters that resulted in at least $1 billion in damages. The highest number of billion-dollar events was in the previous year, 2023, with 28. Total damage across the U.S. in 2024 from extreme climate and weather events was $182.7 billion, which ranked fourth highest in history.

The most expensive year was in 2017 with $395.9 billion, followed by 2005 with $268.5 billion and 2022 with $183.6 billion. Since these types of records began in 1980, NOAA shows there have been 403 combined weather and climate disasters exceeding $1 billion in damage. The cost for all the events is over $2.9 trillion.

In terms of our local weather, the first 10 days were the driest in history with no measurable precipitation. Cliff’s records indicate there were a few other years with no rainfall in early May. However, we’re finally receiving some much-needed rainfall across the Spokane and Coeur d’Alene region. Despite the moisture, we’re well below the monthly normal for May of 2.37 inches, with a good chance that we’ll end up with another below-average month of precipitation in Coeur d’Alene.

As I mentioned last week, officials are concerned that if the drier-than-normal weather pattern continues across the region, the fire season for 2025 could be another tough one for the northwestern U.S. The latest information from the U.S. Drought Monitor still has moderate to severe drought expanding, which includes Coeur d’Alene. The mountain regions did receive some moisture in recent weeks, but severe drought conditions persist.

The long-range forecast models indicate that after the period of rainfall early in the week, there is still a chance of scattered shower activity next week. As we get close to the normally wet new moon lunar phase at the end of the month, it does look like we’ll have a better chance of rainfall across the Inland Northwest in late May and into early June.

However, we still expect the upcoming late spring and summer season to be drier than normal across the region. The heat and dryness this year may not be as intense as 2024. Last year, July was very hot with an average high temperature of 90.1 degrees, which was 7 degrees above normal levels. It was also a very dry month, as only 0.04 inches of rainfall fell.