There is a full-blown Christmas tree shortage this year, leading to higher prices and fewer trees to pick from.
Christmas trees are one of those things we all take for granted. You show up to any nursery or shopping center parking lot, and there's bound to be someone out there hocking Douglas Firs. This year, unfortunately, there is a Christmas tree shortage across the country -- and the reason makes perfect sense. Depending on the height, it takes a Douglas Fir tree 10 to 15 years to grow enough to become a suitable Christmas tree. That's right, your tree this year was likely planted over a decade ago. The problem is that 10 years ago, the United States was in the grip of the Great Recession. Families began feeling the pinch and began opting for fake, reusable Christmas trees. In the first two years of the recession, there was a noticeable drop in live Christmas tree sales. Farmers, not surprisingly, decided to cut fewer trees down, hoping to hold out for better economic conditions and sell their then-larger trees for a higher profit. Unfortunately, every tree that remained in the ground meant one fewer spot to plant a sapling. The farmers were able to sell their larger trees and recoup their money when the nation's economy improved, but that still left a severe shortage of potential Christmas trees being planted between 2007 and 2010.
Even though the economy has since rebounded and the stock market is setting new highs week after week, we are now reaping the seeds that these farmers sowed during the recession. The result is fewer medium-to-large trees for sale this year. The National Christmas Tree Association [Editor's Note: Yes, we checked. That is really a thing.] warns that lower supply will cause Christmas tree prices to spike. Already, early shoppers in the Denver area are seeing Christmas tree prices $10-15 higher than what they're used to. This year's higher prices could lead more and more people to turn to the more economical fake trees that are sold at department stores. If significantly more people make the switch to reusable trees -- which we saw during the recession -- it could encourage tree farmers to plant fewer trees next year, which would, in turn, lead to another Christmas tree shortage a decade from now.
Right now, with just under a month before the holiday, you won't likely notice anything other than the steeper price tag. However, as we get closer to Christmas, you will notice fewer and fewer trees on the lots for sale and fewer trucks coming in to replace trees that are being sold. Sellers know they will have a reduced stock, so they are marking up their inventory to compensate.
If you don't care about paying more than usual, then be sure to snag a tree now in order to ensure that you get the one you like. But if you are price conscious, this advice might seem counter-intuitive: wait.
As we get closer to Christmas Eve, tree sellers will begin discounting their stock in order to move inventory. Sure, there will be less inventory to move, but sellers don't want to be stuck holding cut-down Christmas trees after December 24. Ask anyone who is Greek Orthodox and celebrates Christmas two weeks late -- they can get their Christmas trees for next to nothing. If you're willing to wait and you're okay with battling bargain hunters for the last trees on the lot, your best deal will come the closer you get to Christmas. Yet, at the same time, you risk not getting a live tree at all or one that looks absolutely dreadful.
Inevitably, this shortage will inevitably cause sticker shock and force even more Christmas purists toward fake trees. There is absolutely nothing wrong with this, and a good sturdy fake tree can save you a lot of money if reused year-after-year. No single raindrop is responsible for a flood, but each family that makes a switch to fake trees means one fewer customer tying a tree to the top of their SUV the following year, and that does translate to planting schedules.
What are you going to do this year? Buy early or bargain hunt late? Tell us in the comment section below!
