These seven maps show the combinations of swing state victories that could deliver Trump or Harris the presidency

I f recent polls are any indication, the 2024 presidential race is going to be close.

In the handful of battleground states that will likely decide whether former president Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris win the White House, polls show an incredibly tight race, with the contest in some key states essentially deadlocked .

With seven battleground states in play, each representing different numbers of electoral votes, multiple combinations of victories in states are possible for Trump and Harris to reach 270.

The below scenarios assume that Trump and Harris will win the states that are considered “solid,” “likely,” or “lean” for each candidate according to ratings from the Cook Political Report . By this measure, these maps give Harris 226 electoral votes to begin with and Trump 219, leaving 93 electoral votes up for grabs between seven swing states.

Here’s a look at some of the paths for both candidates.

Why is Pennsylvania so important, and how does losing the state change the electoral prospects for each candidate?

With 19, Pennsylvania has the highest number of electoral votes of all the swing states and is considered vital in the electoral landscape. It’s where Trump and Harris have spent considerable time and resources to win over the state’s voters: they’ve visited dozens of times and collectively poured more than half a billion dollars into advertisements, making Pennsylvania the most expensive battleground state this cycle, according to an analysis by the Philadelphia Inquirer .

Pennsylvania has voted for the winner of the presidential race in every election since former president Barack Obama won in 2008. Before that, it voted for Democrats in every presidential election dating back to 1992.

A number of paths for Harris and Trump run through Pennsylvania, and while either can win without the state, those paths are more difficult.

This is especially true for Trump.

If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he’ll need to win four states he lost in 2020 in addition to one of the remaining two “blue wall” states to reach 270 electoral votes. The “blue wall” includes Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, a group that has reliably gone for Democrats in a number of recent presidential elections through 2012.

Without Pennsylvania, Trump would need to notch wins in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, in addition to either Wisconsin or Michigan. By winning the states indicated in the map below, he would reach 283 electoral votes to Harris’s 255.

Conversely, if Harris loses Pennsylvania, she’ll need 45 electoral votes, which she can achieve through several combinations including Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia. That tally would put her at 278 electoral votes and leave Trump with 260.

Harris can win with Pennsylvania and two others — in multiple ways

With Pennsylvania, Harris has multiple paths to reach 270 electoral votes by winning just two additional battleground states.

Harris reaches exactly 270 by winning ‘blue wall’ states

Another is by securing the entire “blue wall.” Should Harris win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, she could lose the other four battleground states and still reach 270 electoral votes — assuming she also picks up a single electoral vote in Nebraska, which the Cook Political Report currently rates as “lean Democrat.” Nebraska is one of two states — the other being Maine — that award electoral votes by congressional district.

Trump sweeps eastern battleground states

In a stark contrast to Harris’s numerous combinations of three battleground states to reach 270 electoral votes, if Trump wins just three battleground states, there is only one path that gets him to 270.

Trump can cross the threshold by securing victories in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. That combination gives him exactly 270.

If Trump replicates his 2016 victory

In 2016, Trump notably flipped the “blue wall,” winning Pennsylvania, which had 20 electoral votes in that election, Wisconsin, and Michigan. He also won North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona for a total of 304 electoral votes.

Nevada was the only current-day battleground state that went to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

If Harris replicates Biden’s 2020 victory

In 2020, President Biden defeated Trump by winning six of the seven battleground states earning 306 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 232.

Biden flipped the “blue wall” and won Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.