DETROIT – Is it fair to wonder what the real Jack Flaherty looks like? He’s been, in turns, brilliant and baffling; not only this year, but over his last 20 regular-season starts. 2024: 55.1 innings, 3.58 ERA, 1.283 WHIP, .729 opponent OPS, 26% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate. 2025: 53.1 innings, 4.39 ERA, 1.183 WHIP, .731 opponent OPS, 29% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate. But within those numbers are some stellar starts: A 6.1-inning scoreless outing at Oakland in his Dodgers’ debut last year, 7.1 shutout innings against Cleveland last September. This season, he punched out nine in 5.1 scoreless innings against the Yankees in April and posted quality starts against the Padres, and the Guardians in his most recent start. The baseball card stats may not show it, but Flaherty keeps flashing the best version of himself, almost like a tease. “It just comes down to executing pitches,” Flaherty said earlier this month. “If you make good pitches, you give yourself a chance. If you don’t make good pitches, these are the best hitters in the world. They’re going to make you pay.” The flashes of brilliance have been coming more frequently in his last couple of outings. His sixth and final inning in Toronto a week ago Friday, he punched out Jonatan Clase and Bo Bichette, carving them with knuckle-curves off firm, well-placed 94- and 95-mph four-seamers. Against Vladimir Guerrero Jr., he got ahead 0-2 with 96 mph and 95.7 mph heaters. He followed that up with a 78-mph knuckle-curve literally on the plate that Guerrero topped 41 feet for a single. But here’s a window into why his baseball card numbers seem a little gaudy: He got two strikes on lefty Daulton Varsho and put an 0-2 heater (95.7 mph) off the plate outside. Somehow Varsho was able to redirect it into the left-field seats, leaving Flaherty with a bitter taste despite 5.2 strong innings of work. His first inning against the Guardians Thursday seemed like an extension of that final inning in Toronto. After getting Steven Kwan on a soft fly ball to left, he punched out Lane Thomas on four pitches (getting him on a 93.7 mph heater on the outer black) and Jose Ramirez on three pitches (knuckle-curve, changeup and a 95-mph heater painted on the outer black). Again, he gave the Tigers a quality start (6.2 innings, three hits, three runs, eight strikeouts) and got an L on his ledger for his efforts. “I feel like I’ve been going in the right direction the entire year,” Flaherty said. “Just, more mentally than anything, I have kind of talked myself into saying I wasn’t doing great. But I’ve been throwing the ball well. “I’ve had a couple of rough innings but I still feel like I’m throwing the ball well. But there’s still another level to get to.” His 2-6 record and 4.56 ERA suggests that it’s been a 10-start struggle for him and that’s not accurate. That he’s limiting hitters to a .225 average and .291 on-base percentage with a 1.181 WHIP argues against that narrative. That he ranks third in the American League with 10.8 strikeouts per nine argues against it. That his knuckle-curve (.158 with a 47.4% whiff rate) and slider (.192 with a 33% whiff) have been mostly unhittable argues against it. “We have a ton of belief in Jack,” manager AJ Hinch said. “Not just because of all the work he’s done, but because of what he brings to the table every day. What we saw in his fastball the last outing was encouraging. What we know he’s going to bring with the spin is really encouraging. “When it comes to his attack plan, we have a ton of belief because he has a lot of options. He can go to a lot of different things and when he puts it all together, as he has so often in his career, he can put together some special games.” That’s what Flaherty is working toward. Putting it all together. On Thursday, he was really good overall. But he didn’t have his usual pinpoint command of his knuckle-curve and had to navigate a lefty-heavy lineup with four-seamers, sliders and changeups. And he made it work. “I want to be able to take what I did in the first inning (Thursday) and try to do that in more innings,” Flaherty said. “The command got away from me a little bit at times and that hurt me.” Case in point was the fourth inning. He walked Kyle Manzardo (even though he got squeezed on a couple of borderline pitches) and fell behind 3-1 to Carlos Santana. Santana made him pay, rapping a two-run double. “It comes down to execution,” Flaherty repeated. True story. The run value on his four-seamer is minus-5. It was plus-6 last season. Hitters are slugging .589 on his four-seam and a big reason for that is he’s often having to throw the pitch in hitter-friendly counts. Hitters have a .500 on-base percentage and .655 slug in three-ball counts against him. His 5% home run rate, a career-high, is also reflective of that. It’s been one step forward and one step back for 20 starts. He will get the ball again against the Giants on Tuesday at Comerica Park and we can all wonder, will the real Jack Flaherty, please stand up.
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