Well, only time will tell, but we will have to sort of see what happens with this.

We know from Trump's first term that, when he imposed similar tariffs on steel and aluminum, the result was to create some additional domestic production and jobs in the steel and aluminum industries, but to significantly raise costs and cause a lot of harm in the industries that consume steel and aluminum.

And that harm was compounded when our trading partners retaliated against those tariffs. And so the net effect was an economic negative. Now, fast-forward to today. When President Trump a week earlier said that he was going to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, we saw a very negative reaction in the stock market.

That too suggests that investors expect that the net effect on the economy of these tariffs will be negative.

So I think that the — certainly, Trump's first administration, and to some extent the Biden administration, made a distinction between China and everybody else.

There was a recognition that China was a strategic competitor to the United States and that it did not adhere to the rules of global trade as other countries understand it. And so there was a better case for imposing high tariffs on China, notwithstanding the harm that that would cause to those who import things from China.

In this case, the president is not really making that distinction. He's saying tariffs on everybody, whether or not you're an ally. And that's because the motive here is to try and protect the U.S. steel and aluminum industries.

Now, to be sure, China, even though it's not the specific — it's not being singled out in these tariffs, it's sort of there in the background, because one of the concerns that folks have had about tariffs and about China in the past is that, even when there are tariffs on Chinese steel, it comes in through third countries, where China sells steel cheaply to one country.

That country's industry suffers, and it sells its steel to the United States. So there might be in a roundabout way an effort to get at China. But that is, I think, kind of secondary. What Trump is saying here is, he is willing to impose very high tariffs indefinitely to protect industries that are important to him.

Well, Trump's adviser has put forth many different justifications for tariffs. They will tell you, for example, that there's a difference between tariffs that are intended for negotiation or punitive tariffs.

That's the tariffs that were threatened against Mexico and Canada as a way to get them to act on American concerns about the inflow of illegal migrants and fentanyl. And then there's a different bucket, which they call structural tariffs or strategic tariffs. And these are kind of indefinite. And they're meant to inculcate long-term economic and political changes, such as strengthening the U.S. manufacturing base or raising revenue that can help pay for tax cuts.

So the tariffs that were punished — threatened against Mexico and Canada a week ago fall into that first bucket. They were not, at least if you listen to the president, intended to be there forever, just long enough until Mexico and Canada did act. And it appears that they are acting on American concerns.

The tariffs that the president announced today on steel and aluminum and the ones that he said are coming, the so-called reciprocal tariffs on everybody, those are probably more in this second bucket of structural, open-ended tariffs. And we can expect those to be in place for a very long time, because the problems that they're addressing, the very large trade deficit, are not going away in just a few months.