In a 3-round bantamweight bout on the main card, Cody Garbrandt and Raoni Barcelos meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 69 at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. The main event is expected to start approximately at 11:15 p.m. ET. The prelims are scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+) and the main card set for 10 p.m. ET (ESPN / ESPN+). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's UFC odds around the UFC on ESPN 69: Garbrandt vs. Barcelos odds , and make our expert UFC picks and predictions .

The former champ for Team Alpha Male heads into this battle looking to rebound after a Round-2 submission loss to Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 300 in April 2024. Since topping Dominick Cruz at UFC 207 via unanimous decision to take the division strap in December 2016, Garbrandt is just 3-6 in 9 bouts since, including back-to-back title-fight losses to TJ Dillashaw (2017 and 2018).

Barcelos has steadied the ship a little bit after losing 4 bouts in a 5-fight span from June 2021 to August 2023. The Brazilian fighter picked up a Round-3 submission win against Cristian Quiñonez in February 2024 before a unanimous-decision win over Payton Talbott last time out at UFC 311 this past January. A fight against Garbrandt, even in the tail-end of his career, is a huge upgrade in talent, however.

Barcelos has a 1.5-inch reach advantage vs. Garbrandt, holds a 5.11-to-2.98 significant strikes per minute edge and is much more accurate with those strikes at 57.52%, while Garbrandt is just 42.59%. In takedown average, the advantage goes to Barcelos, too, as he checks in at 2.46 compared to Garbrandt's 1.03 takedown average. Plus, the Brazilian Barcelos has a 0.69 submission average, while Garbrandt does not have a mark in that category.

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UFC on ESPN 69: Garbrandt vs. Barcelos odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:23 a.m. ET.

UFC on ESPN 69: Garbrandt vs. Barcelos picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Backing Barcelos (-275) straight up is a little too expensive, costing 2.75 times the potential return. However, if you were to throw this into a multi-leg parlay with at least 3 or 4 parts, it's perfectly acceptable to include Barcelos.

There is risk as Garbrandt (+210) represents a big jump in quality of competition after Barcelos faced a couple of tomato cans recently.

Barcelos holds all of the statistical advantages, however, and his slight reach difference is very important, too. However, rather than get into a toe-to-toe brawl, he'll likely want to get this fight down to the canvas quickly. He'll either have a chance to submission Garbrandt, who is not a good grappler, or he'll do enough to wow the judges with takedowns and top time.

The best bet, if you want action on the side, is to go with BARCELOS BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+150) at plus-money on the 7-way method of victory line.

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Over/Under

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-135) is worth a look, and the best part is that you don't have to pick a winner if you don't want to.

If you're not sold on Barcelos against Garbrandt, or vice versa, you can get a solid value on YES (-110): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE at near even-money.

Garbrandt has gone the distance twice in the past 5 fights.

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