The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team is issuing a Weather Alert Day effective for a storm threat that begins late overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, and persists through late Wednesday night. There will be two rounds; one in the morning, and another in the afternoon. These will likely impact separate areas of mid-Missouri.

SETUP:

An upper level wave across the plains will help to spur a deepening trough of low pressure at the lower levels across Kansas and Oklahoma. This will help drive low level winds that help bring together warmth and moisture to build large levels of storm energy across south-central Kansas. This instability, plus the convergence of these low level winds and stalled front draped across northern Kansas and the Missouri Iowa border, will likely develop storms that quickly grow severe producing a risk for all types of severe weather.

From here, storms will spread east, supported by the low level winds and gradient of storm energy that stretches into mid-Missouri. As energy lowers to the east into mid-Missouri, storms will likely weaken with eastward expansion. This raises the question of just how far east the severe threat will extend. For now, we should expect a chance for at least strong to damaging winds with storms across our entire region. This may get dialed back in future updates.

HAZARDS & IMPACTS:

Our severe hazards are primarily damaging winds and hail. We expect to have to monitor these storms for eddies within the complex of storms that could support rotation and possible tornadoes. However, this will be a less likely threat than damaging winds and hail, our greatest concerns.

Pull in patio furniture and try to park the car in the garage if you can, before heading to bed Tuesday night.

More of the same threats are possible as storms may refire locally Wednesday afternoon.

TIMING:

That brings us to timing. We expect this to pass through will most of us are sleeping. Right now our tornado threat looks low enough that this isn't a stay up all night and monitor situation. However, it would be wise to have multiple ways to receive tornado warnings that will WAKE YOU UP. We have a low threat for weak tornadoes, but these tornadoes STILL DO DAMAGE. You should be prepared to wake up and quickly move to shelter in case of a tornado.

A few storms will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening Tuesday, but our severe threat is low. Our greatest likelihood of severe arrival will be after midnight, close to 3-5 a.m. in the west, before weakening with time as it spreads east. Our greatest risk will be early in the morning.

From there, a lot of variables are at play. How long rain and clouds linger into Wednesday will have a direct impact on how much energy we have available for a cold front that drops through the region on Wednesday.

Remember the aforementioned stalled front to our north? That's the one. It will pass through during the day. Wherever it encounters growing instability during the afternoon, severe will be a possibility again. This is looking increasingly unlikely north of HWY 24.

WHAT COULD CHANGE:

Plenty could change between now and the end of this event, as Tuesday night/Wednesday morning's chance for storms is largely dependent on a fluid setup. Wednesday afternoon is heavily dependent on how the overnight round plays out. This means we expect timing and placement shifts in the data, but we think our rough time and placement forecast is a good approximation for now. We will continue to narrow and whittle our forecast as information becomes available.

Get the latest here in our ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day Blog, and on our ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather App.