The National Football League and the National Basketball Association have completely different outlooks on managing parity in their respective leagues.In the
NFL, the teams with the worst records get the top picks, plain and simple, with the idea that those teams will eventually win their way out of misery with the accumulation of high-talent, low-cost players in the draft. In the
NBA, the league has fought to reduce the number of teams that tank across its 82-game regular season, so it has a lottery system decide its draft order for its non-playoff teams. That can lead to a few surprises and some of the NBA's worst teams left frustrated after a depressing regular season. The NBA's 2025 draft lottery certainly churned out a massive surprise on Monday night: the Dallas Mavericks, the reigning Western Conference champions who missed the postseason after trading away superstar Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers,
won the lottery to secure the draft rights of the first overall pick. Stunningly, the Mavericks, who entered the lottery with the 11th-best odds to win out of the 14 teams to miss the playoffs, lucked into having the ability to draft All-American, freshman phenom forward Cooper Flagg out of Duke. He is fresh off nearly sweeping the National Player of the Year award en route to leading the Blue Devils to the Final Four. A stunning sequence like that begs the following question: what would the
NFL Draft look like with a lottery system like the NBA's? Now, one doesn't have to wonder any longer. Here's a look at what the
2025 NFL Draft order, thanks to our social media team here at CBS Sports, would have been had they had a lottery that rewarded teams with the exact same odds the NBA's did plus which players would have been picked where under those circumstances. Enjoy this alternate reality. It's guaranteed the
San Francisco 49ers and their fans would have as the 49ers, who were selecting 11th overall in the real world, would have owned the right's to the 2025 draft's first overall pick.
1. San Francisco 49ers: Cam Ward, QB, Miami
The 2023 NFC champions are the top beneficiary of the 2025 NFL Draft lottery following an injury-plagued 6-11 campaign in 2024 that resulted in the 49ers missing the playoffs entirely. Instead of spending the rest of the 2025 offseason debating about the merits of paying quarterback
Brock Purdy an average per year salary of over $50 million, San Francisco drafts 2024 Davey O'Brien Award winner (best QB) and 2024 ACC Player of the Year Cam Ward out of Miami with the first pick.Continuous questions about Purdy's arm strength and mobility are no longer the 49ers' problem with the selection of Ward. This pick allows the 49ers to keep their veteran core together for longer by retaining the ability to start a quarterback on his rookie contract for another four to five years. It also gives general manager John Lynch the green light to pick up the phone and deal Purdy to a quarterback-starved franchise for picks that will restock their depth chart with youth for years to come.
The Carolina Panthers had two critical needs entering the 2025 NFL Draft: reinforce the NFL's worst defense (allowed NFL-most 31.4 points per game in 2024) and give quarterback
Bryce Young a go-to wide receiver to accelerate his development. Carolina kills two birds with one stone after moving up to second overall, thanks to the lottery, by drafting 2024 Heisman Trophy-winning wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter second overall. Hunter became the first player in FBS history (since 1978) with either 1,000 or more yards receiving and three or more interceptions in a season or 10 or more receiving touchdowns and three or more interceptions in a season, per CBS Sports Research. The Panthers have him major in offense and catching passes from Young and position him to minor in defense, filling in at cornerback in sub-packages like dime and/or in third-and-long situations.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense was one of the worst in football a season ago, ranking bottom five in the league in numerous metrics like scoring defense (25.6 points per game allowed, tied for 27th in NFL) and total defense (289.9 total yards per game allowed, 31st in NFL). Jacksonville begins to fix those issues with the selection of Penn State All-American edge rusher Abdul Carter third overall. The 2024 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year led the FBS in tackles for loss (24) in 2024 while registering the third-most quarterback pressures (66) and the seventh-most sacks (12.0) in the nation last season. Sure, the Jaguars drafted
Travon Walker first overall in 2022, but this pick allows for Walker, Carter and Pro Bowler Joshua Hines-Allen to all rotate to different spots along the defensive line from play to play. That's a defensive coordinator's dream. Plus, the pick of Carter could also be enough motivation to cause Walker to level up his game entering his fourth NFL season.
For all of
Daniel Jones' warts over the years, New York also failed to adequately protect him up front. The Giants don't make that mistake for Ole Miss quarterback
Jaxson Dart, who they go on to trade back into Round 1 to select 25th overall later on. Instead, they select Missouri All-SEC right tackle Armand Membou, perhaps the draft's most athletic offensive lineman, fourth overall. He supplants veteran
Jermaine Eluemunor for the starting right tackle and pushes him back inside, which also bolsters the Giants' offensive line. Membou only allowed three sacks in 984 career pass-blocking snaps, and New York now has both of Dart's tackle spots locked down for the forseeable future between Membou and left tackle
Andrew Thomas.
The Tennessee Titans are the biggest loser of the NFL's lottery system in 2025, tumbling from the owners of the first overall pick to the fifth overall pick. Tennessee now opts to address its struggling run defense at pick No. 5 with the selection of Michigan All-American defensive tackle Mason Graham.Graham produced college football's best Pro Football Focus run defense grade among defensive tackles, 92.6, in 2024, and he steps in as an immediate starter for a Titans defense that allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game (133.9) in the entire league last season. He can also get after the quarterback from the interior as his 63 quarterback pressures, the second-most among Big Ten defensive tackles, indicate.
6. Cleveland Browns: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
Outside of breakout Pro Bowl wide receiver
Jerry Jeudy, the Cleveland Browns' wide receiver room is incredibly thin. General manager Andrew Berry bolsters the depth at receiver ahead of Cleveland's much-anticipated quarterback competition between
Kenny Pickett,
Joe Flacco,
Dillon Gabriel and
Shedeur Sanders with
Deshaun Watson recovering from a torn Achilles. McMillan adds both size (6-5, 212 pounds) and legitimate production. He led all of
college football in receiving yards (3,423, an Arizona program record) and catches of 20 or more air yards (35) over the span of his three-season collegiate career.
Despite the New England Patriots falling from the fourth pick to the seventh overall pick, they land their desired target: LSU left tackle Will Campbell. Campbell allowed just five sacks on 1,508 career pass-blocking snaps, and he immediately becomes quarterback
Drake Maye's blindside protector.The Patriots ranked second-to-last in the NFL in 2024 in both sack rate allowed (9%) and quarterback pressure rate (39.5%) allowed, and the addition of Campbell bolsters New England's weakness along the offensive line.
The Las Vegas Raiders also luck into their real life first-round pick, All-American Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, even though they drop two slots thanks to the NFL draft lottery. Jeanty ran for 2,601 yards rushing in 2024, which was only 28 shy of
college football's all-time record held by Hall of Famer Barry Sanders (2,628 in 1988 with Oklahoma State), while totaling 10 runs of at least 60 yards, the most by any FBS player since at least 2015 per CBS Sports Research. He also produced five touchdowns of at least 70 yards, tying Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson (five in 2000 with TCU) for the FBS single-season record, according to CBS Sports Research. He's pretty good at football. He is also the perfect pick for a Raiders squad that finished dead last in the entire NFL in rushing yards (1,357), yards per carry (3.6) and tackles avoided on rushing plays (49). Jeanty led college football in rushing yards (2,601) and tackles avoided on rushes (170) while ranking ninth in the nation in yards per carry (7.0).
9. New York Jets: Kelvin Banks, OT, Texas
The New York Jets missed out on perfectly slotting Membou into their vacant right tackle spot, but they could potentially do the same with Texas All-American left tackle Kelvin Banks. He allowed only four sacks and 28 quarterback pressures on 1,476 career pass-block snaps, which allowed him to register the lowest quarterback pressure rate (1.9%, minimum 1,000 snaps) by any FBS tackle in the span of his three-season collegiate career from 2022 to 2024. All 42 of Banks' starts came at left tackle as a Longhorn, but perhaps he could handle the transition to right tackle.
The 2025 season could be eight-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Cam Jordan's last in the NFL. He's registered just six sacks combined (two in 2023 and four in 2024) across the last two seasons with totals each year that stand as the second-fewest and third-fewest of his NFL career ahead of only the one the soon-to-36-year-old produced as a rookie back in 2011. New Orleans grabs the draft's second-best edge rusher prospect here with Georgia's Jalon Walker, who won the 2024 Butkus Award as college football's best linebacker. His 11.5 sacks since 2023 lead the Georgia Bulldogs across the last two seasons, and he led Georgia in 2024 with 11 tackles for loss. Walker is an explosive athlete who could grow into being the Saints' next great pass rusher.
Falling only one pick in the lottery allows for the Chicago Bears to select their desired player in Michigan All-Big Ten tight end Colston Loveland. Loveland's 582 yards receiving accounted for 34.7% of the Wolverines' team receiving yards in 2024, the second-highest rate by any tight end in college football last season. He's not a great blocker, but he's a strong, fluid route runner over the middle. Loveland will compete for TE1 reps with
Cole Kmet as a new member of
Caleb Williams' supporting cast.
The Dallas Cowboys fell in love with Alabama All-American offensive guard Tyler Booker. Owner and general manager Jerry Jones
compared his leadership and energy qualities to those of Pro Football Hall of Famer wide receiver Michael Irvin. Plus, Dallas had a vacancy at its right guard spot following the retirement of seven-time, first-team All-Pro
Zack Martin this offseason. The Cowboys
get their guy at No. 12.
The Miami Dolphins produced the sixth-fewest sacks (35) in the NFL last season, so they opted to bolster their pass rush with the selection of Michigan All-Big Ten defensive tackle Kenneth Grant 13th overall. His 50 quarterback pressures were the third-most by a Big Ten defensive tackle across the last two seasons, and his 10 passes defended were tied for the most in college football by a defensive lineman since 2023. Perhaps Miami sees Grant as their next
Christian Wilkins.
The Indianapolis Colts haven't had a reliable pass-catcher at tight end
Jack Doyle retired following the conclusion of the 2021 NFL season. That's why they selected Penn State All-American tight end Tyler Warren 14th overall. Warren set Penn State's single-season catches record with 104 as well as the Big Ten Conference's single-season receiving yards record by a tight end with 1,233 en route to being named the 2024 John Mackey Award winner, which goes to
college football's best tight end. He's also incredibly versatile, becoming the only FBS player since at least 2017 with at least 30 snaps while lining up at tight end, slot receiver, out wide, in the backfield and a quarterback in a single season, per CBS Sports Research. Whoever wins the quarterback competition between
Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones will be blessed with a versatile weapon in the passing game.
