Is there a hotter team in the NHL than the St. Louis Blues?

St. Louis was already showing signs of progress heading into the 4 Nations Face-Off break under Jim Montgomery. The team has made a statement since returning to play. The Blues boast a 15-2-2 record in 19 games over the last month-plus of action, with a league-high 0.842 point percentage over that span.

The Blues have sometimes benefited from schedule strength over this 19-game stretch, with meetings against the Blackhawks, Predators and Ducks. But the team also went head-to-head with playoff-caliber opponents. St. Louis earned two regulation wins over the Avalanche, beat the Capitals 5-2 and took five of six points against the Kings.

One of the most pivotal moments came in a comeback win over the Canucks on March 20. The Blues’ playoff odds were at 23.6 percent heading into that game and have surged in the 10 days since to 76 percent (before accounting for the Canucks’ loss to the Jets on Sunday).

The Blues aren’t in a playoff picture because teams around them have wilted. This team powered its way up the standings against the odds, thanks to its play at five-on-five. With a 56 percent expected goal rate, the Blues are only a shade behind the league-leading Jets since the 4 Nations break.

St. Louis is getting contributions up and down the lineup. Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, Dylan Holloway and Jordan Kyrou are producing at the top of the lineup, while Zack Bolduc has stepped up in a supporting role. But the most impressive part of this run is how well the team has played defensively. The Blues have coughed up a league-low 1.93 expected goals against per 60 despite missing their top defenseman. Colton Parayko was one of the most improved players since the coaching change and excelled in tough usage. Philip Broberg and Justin Faulk have stepped up since he was sidelined, but there has been a team-wide effort to limit rush chances against.

There are just a couple of five-on-five numbers to keep an eye on. The Blues shouldn’t be expected to shoot 12.5 percent forever or rock a 0.926 save percentage. Outscoring opponents 53-26 will be tough to sustain, but this team is showing that there is still oomph below the surface to support its play-driving.

It’s good to be lucky, but the Blues aren’t just lucky to be good.

Power-play opportunities are on the decline

Power plays are scorching hot this year. Teams are clicking at an average efficiency of 21.7 across the league, the highest conversation rate since 1985-86’s 22.1 percent. Prashanth Iyer wrote about the surge in power-play efficiency in mid-March and found that expected goal rates were also rising this season. Some trends that have built momentum in recent years play into that — more teams are deploying units consisting of four forwards and one defenseman, and there has been more emphasis on shots from the circle and net front instead of the point.

Despite generating more offense on the power play and converting at the highest clip in almost 40 years, the average rate of power-play goals per game is down to 0.59 this year from last year’s 0.63 and 2022-23’s 0.65. The difference is because of a drop in overall power-play opportunities this season. As The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn pointed out in 16 Stats earlier this month, this season’s 2.71 power-play opportunities per game is a 10 percent decline from last year’s 3.02.

Something really noticeable about that is when the whistles are going away. Officials are calling far fewer non-offsetting penalties after the 50-minute mark (including overtime). It’s a steep drop from years past, especially the 2022-23 season, as pictured below thanks to Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz.

The real question is why there is such a drastic swing in penalty-calling after the 50-minute mark and if power-play efficiency has anything to do with it. Every non-offsetting penalty called carries more weight because teams are converting on their opportunities at a higher clip, and that can be a difference-maker late in regulation and in overtime (remember, in 2022-23, there was an uptick in power plays called in overtime and it led to more games ending before the shootout). Is this a conscious decision to avoid officials having too much influence in games, or does putting the whistle away intentionally have the same effect?

Disastrous special teams in Columbus

Not every team’s power play is popping off; just ask the Blue Jackets. In 16 games since the 4 Nations break, Columbus has only scored three goals with the man advantage … and allowed four short-handed back in that same span.

The Blue Jackets have generated more chances than the scoresheet shows, with an expected goal rate of 8.13 per 60 in that span. That is below league average but not as dire as their putrid scoring rate reflects. The problem is that those missed scoring opportunities could cost them in the wild-card race.

The Blue Jackets could have won a few more games in March had they converted on some of those chances — and maybe would have the edge in the standings. Even if the team’s shooting percentage rebounds from 4.65 percent, the other end of the ice still holds the team back.

Columbus’ penalty kill has allowed a league-high 11.5 expected goals against per 60 since the break. The goaltending has been better than expected under that workload, but the penalty kill is still getting absolutely crushed. The Blue Jackets have given up 11 power-play goals in the last 16 games, which has been an outright back-breaker.

Red flags are emerging at five-on-five in Dallas

After adding Mikko Rantanen to an already-stacked forward group without having to move out a core piece, the Stars emerged as one of the front-runners for the Stanley Cup. But there are some red flags below the surface raising concern at five-on-five.

The Stars have only mustered 43 percent of the expected goals share in 14 games in March, which ranks third-last ahead of only Pittsburgh and Boston. Defense had a lot to do with it; the Stars’ five-on-five offense was nothing special, but their expected goals against ranked dead last in the league this month. Luckily for Dallas, its record doesn’t reflect any of these struggles — the team went 10-2-2 this month and won 22 of a possible 28 points (79 percent). The Stars still had a 31-23 scoring edge at five-on-five. That, plus a hot power play and solid goaltending from Jake Oettinger, made up for where the team fell short.

At the end of the day, they don’t ask how, they ask how many. Teams can try to live by that philosophy, but it won’t necessarily lead to a championship — especially not with a playoff path that will likely feature the Avalanche in Round 1, the winner of the Jets and Blues in Round 2, and then a Pacific Division contender to get through the West.

The right side of the blue line is a glaring weakness in Dallas, even if it didn’t burn the team in the standings this last month. Cody Ceci has been over-leveraged against top competition. Ilya Lyubushkin also looks overtasked in the top four.

The return of Miro Heiskanen will help reset roles and responsibilities. It still isn’t clear when he will be back — the Stars’ No. 1 is skating again, but the team is also preparing to play a round without him. If something doesn’t change over this next stretch of play, that could be really difficult against the Avalanche, whose speed could expose a Heiskanen-less blue line.

Washington’s goalie rotation

With a playoff berth clinched, the Capitals can focus on two things down the stretch: Alex Ovechkin making history and a long postseason run.

A key part of the Caps’ playoff prep involves their goalies. Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren shared the net evenly all season, starting every other game. But now the coaches are starting to test their goalies with consecutive starts.

After returning from injury, Lindgren started two straight in late January. Thompson then played two consecutive games in early February. Since then, Thompson has started two in a row on four other occasions, signaling he will be the No. 1 in the playoffs.

A team may share the net evenly in the regular season, but the playoffs are a different animal. It helps to get one goaltender in a rhythm, no matter what the regular-season rotation looked like, and lean on them primarily unless injury or performance forces a change.

Just look at the last five postseasons — most goalies who played less than a 60 percent starting share in the regular season still became the de facto No. 1 once the playoffs began. That was the case for Jeremy Swayman in Boston, despite a pretty even regular-season rotation with Linus Ullmark.

Now Thompson is revving up for that expanded role. Even with the recent departure from the regulation, Lindgren is still getting his reps in, sometimes every three games instead of every other, so he should stay sharp if needed in the postseason.

Celebrini is a rising star

The Calder Trophy race is incredibly tight this year. Dustin Wolf measures up not just to other rookies but to some of the top goalies in the league. Lane Huston’s developing on both ends of the ice while playing meaningful hockey in the playoff picture. If either of those players could take home Rookie of the Year honors, it shouldn’t take away from Macklin Celebrini’s season in San Jose.

Celebrini’s progress throughout the season has been impressive. Corey Sznajder’s tracking at All Three Zones helps capture how well he is starting to stack up to some of the league’s best offensive creators.

At five-on-five, Celebrini’s already thriving as a dual threat. His puck-moving ability stands out, from his passing to his play in transition. He enters the zone efficiently, with a 75.6 percent carry-in rate, and turns those entries into scoring chances at a rate of 7.1 per 60. That puts him in the upper echelon of the league, with the likes of Kevin Fiala, Jack Eichel, Jack Hughes, Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Mathew Barzal.

While Celebrini still has a ways to go before he can be in conversation with some of the league’s best, this is a positive building block in his path to stardom. Celebrini has a high-end skill set that’s already translating at this level despite not having much support around him.

March Stars

Cale Makar remains one of the best all-around defensemen in the league. He tends to play in power vs. power matchups and continues to excel despite his workload. Even more impressive is how he and MacKinnon, Colorado’s core players, have helped push the Avs through a post-deadline adjustment period after the team made several personnel changes.

Hutson is known for his offensive chops. In 14 games in March, he put up one goal and 14 assists and earned a 58 percent expected goal rate. But he also deserves credit for upping his defensive game over the last month of play while playing in high-pressure games in Montreal’s chase for the second wild-card seed. Hutson has been a difference-maker in the Canadiens’ push for the playoffs.

There is always a list for the third star. Draisaitl is a goal-scoring machine and Edmonton’s most valuable player. McDavid elevated his game over the last month, too. Nick Suzuki, Kyrou and Holloway have played big roles in their respective teams’ playoff hunts. Nikita Kucherov is making his case for the Hart Trophy, while Sergei Bobrovsky and Darcy Kuemper have upped their games in net. But this month, the star belongs to William Nylander, who is “just trying to do what (he is) paid to do” in his third straight 40-goal season.

Data collected prior to Sunday’s matchups, via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.