Entering his fifth NFL season with another new head coach and offensive coordinator, Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is growing accustomed to fresh starts. But will this reboot with
first-time head coach Liam Coen and the NFL’s youngest offensive coordinator, 29-year-old Grant Udinski, provide the stability Lawrence needs to unlock his potential? Right now, his ceiling is incalculable. Yes, he has underachieved, but nobody can say for certain what heights he can reach until the
Jaguars deliver a better surrounding cast than just receiver Brian Thomas Jr., and maybe one quality lineman.
Lawrence’s rookie season was sabotaged by the incompetence of head coach Urban Meyer , fired after 13 games. Then, the promising hire of
Doug Pederson, a Super Bowl-winning coach, disintegrated by his third season , which coincided with Trevor having multiple injury issues and led to his second head coach getting the ax. There’s cautious optimism about what a new Jaguars’ regime, including former
Los Angeles Rams rising star
James Gladstone in the GM role , might do to change Lawrence’s career trajectory. Gladstone put it this way last week at the NFL Combine, saying: "I don't think we've seen the best of Trevor. I'm really excited to get a chance to work with him, support him, and bring the tools that he has in his arsenal to life." The best of Trevor better not be close to being realized yet or the Jaguars won't get where they want to go. Coen and Gladstone are aligned in believing Lawrence is the Jaguars’ long-term answer at quarterback, but they’ve got a lot of work to do to ensure No. 16 gets on a consistent winning path. There’s one sure avenue in which that can happen:
Coen must be the tag-team partner for Lawrence that he was last season as the offensive coordinator for Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield , whose career reached its highest level in his eighth NFL season at age 29. “The development of Baker will be different than Trevor,” Coen said at the NFL Combine. “It just will be because of the different type of player, but you see a lot of the same intangibles in terms of the work ethic, the ‘want to;’ he wants to be great, he wants to be coached hard. “And the process, like how do we get him on a schedule, a process every single day that he can follow to get him to the point that he feels like he's playing at a higher level?” There’s no denying Lawrence, like Mayfield initially, has fallen short of expectations attached to him as a No. 1 overall draft pick. But that’s not to say he can’t become a highly productive QB in the next 5, 8, 10, 12 years. Coen understands his own job security, as well as the longevity of his quarterback in Jacksonville, rides on their working relationship being far better than what Lawrence has had to this point.
Can Trevor get to Stafford, Rivers levels?
Contrary to what some people think, Lawrence’s first four NFL years are not a waste. Sure, there were some ugly circumstances and tough medical obstacles last year, but those experiences were also valuable from a learning standpoint. Lawrence has a much better understanding of what plays, system and communication style works best for him. As first-timers in their jobs, that should help Coen and Udinski deal with what figures to be a difficult transition process. Coen was hired, more than anything else, because
owner Shad Khan viewed his offensive acumen as being an ideal match for Trevor . This pairing must work, or Lawrence may never have a fraction of the success he enjoyed in high school or at Clemson. “How do we make Trevor Lawrence and this offense as dynamic and explosive as we can be?,” Coen said at his introductory Jan. 27 press conference. “We've got to build it around him as well. We've got to make every part of this about improvement, and he will be a part of that process. “He's earned that right. I cannot respect his toughness and mentality and work ethic more than I do already from afar. This will all be about Trevor right now.” That being said, what is a reasonable Lawrence ceiling? How far can Coen, Udinski, passing game coordinator Shane Waldron and QB coach Spencer Whipple take him? It’s not going to be a Patrick Mahomes bar because that’s an unfair standard. But why can’t it be something like the careers displayed by a Matthew Stafford or Philip Rivers, two QBs that are pushing or did push almost two decades in the NFL and elevated themselves into the top-10 all time in passing yards and touchdowns? Not that Stafford or Rivers are Hall of Fame-worthy QBs, but they were consistently productive and mostly led an entertaining offense for a long time. Is that too much to ask for Trevor? Not for a No. 1 draft pick.
Jaguars, Lawrence must flip that switch
Stafford was considered a massive talent who gave the first 12 years of his NFL life to the
Detroit Lions , which went 0-16 before he arrived, then took them to the playoffs in his third season with a below-average defense. Once Stafford got traded to the Rams in 2021, he immediately led them to a Super Bowl title and has a spectacular 55-25 record in four years. At 38, finally having the right organizational leadership he never had in Detroit (the Lions' defense was usually awful or mediocre), Stafford has flourished in the fourth quarter of his career. Rivers, one of the most durable QBs in NFL history with 240 consecutive starts over his last 15 years, had his greatest run in his first six seasons as a starter (ages 25-30), the same timeline Lawrence is now entering. Over that six-year span, Rivers had three straight seasons of 100-plus QB ratings and went to four Pro Bowls. He also had the benefit of one head coach, Norv Turner, and one offensive coordinator, Clarence Shelmon, for five straight seasons. So many variables go into a quarterback finding that career groove when his offense clicks. It’s mostly up to Lawrence, with Coen’s guidance, to hit that sweet spot and sustain it. With the proper aligned leadership in Jacksonville, Rivers’ win-loss record of 134-106 and 2-1 career touchdown-interception ratio are not out-of-reach benchmarks for Lawrence, who is currently 22-38 with a 69-46 TD-INT ratio. Yes, the Jaguars and Lawrence would have to start winning at an average minimum clip of 9-10 wins per year over the next decade to make it happen. But that’s doable, considering 11 NFL teams have reached that mark since 2015.
Trevor better start ascending soon
Turnarounds can happen fast in the NFL. Once the right quarterback-head coach combination is in place, a switch can easily be flipped within two years. But any Jaguars rebound from their 65-170 record under 13 years of Khan’s ownership starts and ends with one thing: Lawrence ascending quickly under the new regime. Clearly, for a No. 1 pick, he’s been given more forgiveness than any player in franchise history for not producing at a higher level. That’s largely because of Lawrence’s rock-solid character and the fans’ tendency to blame the head coach, offensive coordinator, GM or ownership for team inadequacy before a player occupying the most important position. Then again, Byron Leftwich, Blaine Gabbert and Blake Bortles never had that kind of benefit, but that’s a separate issue. Lawrence’s $275 million contract extension through 2030 makes it almost a given he’s going to be a Jaguar a minimum three more years, preferably a lot longer by staying healthy and producing. Still, no matter how big an investment, every NFL team puts an expiration date on players not living up to their contract. It can’t wait on Trevor forever. But first things first. Starting with free agency and the NFL draft, Coen and Gladstone must significantly upgrade a roster that still has a shortage of true difference-makers. Just because the Jaguars play in a weak AFC South division, where the Houston Texans are the biggest obstacle, that doesn’t mean it’s going to stay that way. Jacksonville can’t entertain the prospect of being a Super Bowl contender until the front office does a better job of closing the talent gap with AFC frontrunners Baltimore, Buffalo and Kansas City. The good news is Lawrence being 25, time remains on his side, but he better not wait too long to start delivering. By this time in the careers of Stafford and Rivers, they had removed any doubt whether their teams had the right quarterback for the long haul. Trevor once again has a new start. He better take advantage of it these next few years or the Jaguars might not give him another one.
