(Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

After an absurd amount of chaos last weekend, the bracket is largely set, as the end of the power conference tournaments mark the final opportunities to bolster March resumes. Now comes what I deem one of the most enticing parts of postseason play: the hunt for mid-major automatic bids.

Cinderella teams are starting their journeys now, and in a few weeks, we might fall in love with after an unexpected upset or wire-to-wire game with a blueblood.

As we head into the final week of conference tournament play, mere days away from Selection Sunday, how should teams on the bubble feel? What games should we be watching out for?

Our first, and perhaps only, bid-stealer, took place over the weekend as George Mason won the Atlantic 10 tournament, marking the Patriots’ first trip to the NCAA Tournament.

A-10 power and regular-season champion Richmond is an at-large lock for the Big Dance, and though it probably drops a seed line due to an early exit in conference tournament play, the Spiders are dancing in consecutive years for the first time since 1991.

This is great for the A-10, but rough for any team on the bubble, as Richmond has been projected to automatically qualify. Now, a bid that was expected to be an at-large is gone from the field.

Who does this impact the most?

Point blank, Virginia Tech is most in danger of missing the tournament as a direct result of this at-large bid going to Richmond. Minnesota was my first team out prior, and now the Hokies can slide into that spot.

Who makes up the rest of the First Four? Who’s safe with a bye? Who’s on the outside looking in?

Let’s look back on last year’s tournament seeding and resumes to see what it can tell us about this season.

As we’ve noted, the quad system is part of an evaluation for the first time in women’s college basketball and is tracked differently than in past years as we wrote recently.

First Four possibilities

The two teams with the lowest NET rankings to receive an at-large bid in last season’s tournament were Vanderbilt and Columbia, respectively 56th and 57th in the NET.

NET isn’t always indicative, however, as the 35th and 45th ranked teams in the NET, Arizona and Auburn respectively, were also in last season’s First Four.

The major surprise last season was Columbia sliding into the tournament, giving the Ivy League two bids. Things are on track to look similiar this season, with a whole lot of Ivy.

Nebraska, Oregon and Washington were hovering around the same position the past few weeks. But with Nebraska’s upset over Illinois in the Big Ten tournament, I imagine the Huskers are pretty safe in the field with a bye.

The Ducks are tricky for me as a team that seems like a tournament lock but wavered down the stretch, finishing 3-6 from February onward, including a first-game Big Ten tourney loss. It’s worth keeping Oregon’s full resume in mind as it includes a key win over Baylor early in the season as well as Quad 1 conference wins over Michigan State, Iowa and Minnesota.

There’s a case for Washington to be seeded over Oregon, but it solely comes from the Huskies’ end-of-season run and its final win over the Ducks. It’s worth noting that the teams split the season series, each program winning on its home court. Though Washington has looked like a better team than it was before the New Year, that Quad 4 loss to Montana still hurt. I’d be surprised if the Ducks weren’t seeded above Washington, and I could also see Oregon with a bye as well, depending on how the selection committee parses through the No. 9 to No. 11 seed lines. There just isn’t much separating some of these teams, and there’s a chasm between that group and the bubble.

As long as Harvard makes it to the Ivy League title game this weekend, it will be in the field. However, that requires picking up a win against Princeton to get there, something the Crimson haven’t been able to pull off in the previous two meetings. Likewise, Princeton needs to make the championship game to ensure its trip to the Big Dance.

A three-bid Ivy League seemed like a reality before last weekend, but with the A-10 bid steal, it’s less certain.

Mid-majors looking for an upset

Multiple Missouri Valley teams have solid cases in the bubble, but a two-bid conference is unlikely.

Middle Tennessee shared the C-USA regular-season title with Liberty after the Flames blew out MTSU in the second to last game of conference play. The conference tournament auto-bid looks like a must for the Raiders to return to the NCAA Tournament, where they won a game last season.

James Madison, which hadn’t lost a game since Christmas, went undefeated in Sun Belt play before an overtime loss in the conference championship. The Dukes are in a tough spot, likely out of the field despite a dominant regular season. They played a difficult nonconference schedule (26th in non-con SOS) and picked up solid Quad 2 wins over Florida and Villanova. JMU has what I’d consider the best mid-major resume outside of the Ivy League, with Belmont in that conversation as well.

Is there an analog from 2024 that can tell us about the Dukes’ chances?

I’d argue Florida Gulf Coast is the most comparable team, with the caveat that the Eagles won their conference tournament.

The Eagles similarly played a remarkably tough nonconference schedule (31st in non-con SOS) to supplement relatively weaker conference strength. (It was 54th in the NET, 0-4 in Quad 1 games and 1-0 in Quad 2 games.)

However, the big difference is that FGCU’s Quad 2 win was over North Carolina on a neutral court, just on the border of being a Quad 1 game. While beating Florida and Villanova are solid resume-builders for James Madison, that win over the Tar Heels would have been a more significant separator if the Eagles hadn’t won their conference tournament. I would also point out that the Eagles had a good shot to get in as a First Four team last year if that had been the case.

Will the selection committee give James Madison a chance?

The Ivy schools still have the better resumes, but perhaps we’ll see the first of the three to exit Ivy Madness miss out on the Big Dance and the Dukes go in their place.

The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.


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