We all knew the sunshine couldn't last long ...
The upcoming storm has been on our radar for the last several days, but there hasn't been any kind of consistency in the models nor has there been enough confidence in the timing to be able to say exactly when snow will happen. That confidence has grown just a bit. We're expecting snow in the mountains and Denver metro area.
President's Day Weekend Forecast: Mountains
A winter storm watch has been issued:
WINTER STORM headed to the mountains.— Andy Stein (@AndySteinWx) February 14, 2020
1-2 FEET of snow is expected along most of the northern and central mountains.
Up to 3 feet could fall at the highest peaks and favored areas. #Colorado #Weather #Snowpack #COwx #WinterStorm #denver pic.twitter.com/Ox6FtVB4dD
The mountains will see the majority of this snowstorm, with Denver and the Front Range getting a little taste of that storm. There's a weak disturbance that will push through the northern mountains Friday night into Saturday morning. Now, this really won't amount to much, but a few areas near and around Steamboat (in the northern portion of the state) will see a couple of inches with this initial spurt of energy.
The main storm that we're watching will move into the state from the northwest on Saturday evening. This will bring snow to areas north of I-70 in the mountains from Saturday night to Tuesday morning, potentially. It's not going to be a quick in-and-out storm. In fact, there's the potential of this storm to stall out, and with the dynamics that we have in place, it could make for a long-duration snow event that could drop over 18 inches of snow on some areas.
From Saturday night through Sunday, temperatures will be relatively warm and snow will be a little bit more dense and sticky. Then, on Sunday afternoon/evening, a cold front will move through and bring additional lift and some more moisture. This cold front will drop temperatures and make the snow more fluffy in nature. Thanks to northwest flow and topographical influences, snow will continue into Monday and may even continue into Monday night/early Tuesday morning for some.
Here's a breakdown:
North of I-70 in the Mountains – 6-12 inches
Aspen to Monarch – 6-12 inches
Telluride to Silverton – 5-10 inches
San Juan Mountains, Wolf Creek, & Purgatory – 2-5 inches
President's Day Weekend Forecast: Denver Metro
We actually have a pretty decent forecast through Sunday for Denver. Thanks to some of the factors that are bringing the mountains snow, as well as, the cold front, the chance of snow will go up from Sunday night through Monday and possibly last into Tuesday, depending on the timing.
Snowfall looks to be minor, but impactful. That means that we could see accumulations that would be enough to cover the roads and create some not-so-great driving conditions. The exact total of snow is up for debate just because we may not have as much, or even more moisture than we currently expect.
Basically, enjoy your mostly snow-less weekend and be prepared for a snowy beginning to the work week next week.
Past this, it appears as though we will be drying out and warming up, but a few persistent model runs have shown another round or two of snow before the month ends. We'll have to just wait and see how things develop.