As Canadians grow increasingly reluctant to cross the border, their real estate purchases in the U.S. are also expected to decline. That could be good news for Canadian realtors, who are hoping to see an increase in vacation properties, particularly in British Columbia’s Interior towns, on Vancouver Island and in Whistler, where there’s already been some growth.

A new Leger survey commissioned by the Association for Canadian Studies (ACS) think tank showed that 52 per cent of respondents said, “it is no longer safe for all Canadians travelling to the United States,” with 54 per cent saying that they did not feel welcome. In B.C., 57 per cent said they didn’t feel safe, and 56 per cent said they didn’t feel welcome.

The perceived betrayal by our American neighbours inspired Canadian essayist Stephen Marche to write a story for the Atlantic magazine this month about the potential American invasion of Canada, which was unthinkable a few months ago. It generated an entire Reddit discussion.

The feeling of betrayal, of course, is trickling down to the real estate industry – and considering that Canadians are the biggest foreign purchaser of American real estate, the consequences are potentially significant, say experts.

“Canadians buying and selling [in the U.S.] is usually governed by prices … the cost of property there and the dollar rate differential and other tax implications,” said Jack Jedwab, the ACS’s president and chief executive officer, based in Montreal.

“But in this particular case, if Canadians feel that travelling to the United States has become problematic and that border security is too intrusive, then that too would be an obstacle, I think, to people travelling there. So, if you’re not going to be travelling there as much, you’re probably going to be disinclined to hang on to your property there.”

From 2023 to 2024, Canadians purchased US$5.9-billion in real estate according to the National Association of Realtors, representing 13 per cent of foreign buyers in the States. China and Mexico were second, representing 11 per cent of foreign buyers, followed by India at 10 per cent.

Canadians were already unloading their Florida properties in 2024 due to inflation and higher costs, according to the American association, making up one-quarter of foreign sellers that year, compared to 11 per cent the year before. American RV parks and vacation rental towns have also spoken publicly about a drop in Canadian vacationers.

For British Columbians, the favourite U.S. resort destinations are Maui, Hawaii; Phoenix; Scottsdale, Ariz.; and Palm Springs, Calif. A 2021 report from the Coachella Valley Economic Partnership showed that about 7 per cent of non-primary residences are owned by Canadians in the Palm Springs area. In response, the city has hung banners along its downtown streets that say, “Palm Springs [heart sign] Canadians.”

Ross McCredie, owner of McCredie Investments and Sutton Group Realty, said his mother-in-law owns property in the U.S. but would rather not be there. And he and his wife are less inclined to go to the U.S., where they used to live for several years.

“Like a lot of Canadians, would we go and buy in the US right now? I don’t think so. Not right now. We love Mexico. We love other places in the world, and there are just other options.”

Although it’s not the chief reason for foregoing a U.S. vacation, some Canadians are also taking a stand on principle, he said.

“I think that’s what Canadians got so upset about, is that [U.S. President Trump] was attacking … wanting to destroy our economy, to put us on our knees and then take advantage of us.”

Cameron Kimball is an American expat who’s lived in Mexico for many years and laid down roots there, with his wife and kids. Mr. Kimball, who’s based in Los Cabos, is vice-president of sales and marketing for the new ultra luxury Residences at the St. Regis, a 33-acre site at the tip of the Baja Peninsula that includes a hotel.

The vacation suites start in the upper US$3-million range and go up to US$15-million. The property sounds like something out of a season of The White Lotus . It’s an ocean front retreat with fully furnished suites, nanny’s quarters, butler and Michelin-starred restaurant. Mr. Kimball has sold 38 of 74 units, and almost US$30-million in sales this year so far, and the property is still under construction. And with direct flights to several Canadian cities, and a better currency exchange than the American dollar, Mexico makes more sense than Maui or Scottsdale.

“Everybody’s got their own reasons, but we’ve definitely seen an uptick in interest from Canadians, even though we already had a fair number of Canadians coming,” said Mr. Kimball. “We’ve seen an uptick where they’re just outright telling us, ‘I have owned a second home, and it was in the U.S., and it is now on the market, and I will be coming to Mexico with that money.’”

The other option is to simply purchase secondary properties at home in Canada. And while buyers aren’t exactly flocking to buy cabins, cottages and pied-à-terres, the interest is there, according to a new Leger survey commissioned by Re/Max. Agents expect a national average price uptick of 1.8 per cent across the entire recreational market, with buyers seeking “staycation” properties to avoid hassles at the border and the pricey American dollar. They also regard real estate as a safer investment than the volatile stock market, said Vancouver-based area vice president Kingsley Ma.

In B.C., the small Interior town of Summerland saw a year-over-year price gain from 2024 to 2025 of 11.4 per cent, with the average secondary home price sitting at $903,757. In Whistler, the average price is at $1.9-million, with a 13.5 per cent gain, and in Osoyoos, the gain is 10.5 per cent, at $651,587. Tofino and Penticton also saw more moderate price gains, according to the Re/Max report.

Most people looking for these secondary properties are families that can work remotely, followed by Boomer-age retirees, said Mr. Ma.

“Interest rates are significantly lower than a year or two ago and prices have softened in most areas in B.C. and there’s more inventory,” said Mr. Ma. “So, if you have money and you’re confident that you can keep your earnings, this is probably a good time to buy.

“I think there are going to be a good amount of Canadians that will sell their property in the States, or at least they are wanting to. The challenge is that depending on the state that they are in, there’s a huge withholding tax to it.

“So, you would be like, well it doesn’t make sense to sell then, right?’ The only saving part is…after the currency, [they could think] ‘I’m still doing pretty good. So, I can just shift the money back into buying in Canada.’”