If you want a side of chaos with your turkey and dressing, you’ve come to the right place.

This week’s Big 12 chaos meter: 6/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯

For the final week of the regular season, the chaos meter has been thrown into overdrive. Four teams are tied for first place in the Big 12, and nine teams — more than half the league! — are still technically in conference championship game contention.

This weekend and next are huge for the Big 12, not just because of the messy conference title race but because of the College Football Playoff picture. If the Playoff started today — based on this week’s rankings — Oregon, Texas, Miami and Boise State would get the byes reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions, and the Big 12 champion would slide in as the 12-seed, meaning a first-round road game.

Having four teams ranked in the Top 25 should help the league, especially if No. 16 Arizona State or No. 18 Iowa State win the conference title. But it’s worth keeping an eye on the race for the bye.

Big 12 title race and tiebreaker scenarios

• If two teams are tied at 7-2, those teams will make the title game.

• If all four teams are tied at week’s end, Arizona State and Iowa State will make the title game.

• If Arizona State, BYU and Iowa State win and Colorado loses, the title game is Arizona State vs. Iowa State.

• If BYU, Colorado and Iowa State win and Arizona State loses, the title game is BYU vs. Iowa State.

• If Arizona State, BYU and Colorado win and Iowa State loses, the title game is Arizona State vs. BYU.

Still with us?

• If West Virginia defeats Texas Tech, it’s Arizona State and Iowa State in the title game.

• If Texas Tech beats West Virginia, Baylor beats Kansas, and Cincinnati beats TCU, then it’s Colorado vs. Iowa State. Otherwise, it’s Colorado vs. Arizona State.

We know you’re confused.

For Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech or West Virginia to have a shot, they need to win and have three of the top four teams (Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, Iowa State) lose. The Big 12 didn’t share permutations for each of the 5-3 teams, and we can only imagine that’s because it’s more math than any of us can handle.

Game previews

Now that we’ve sifted through that mess, let’s preview this weekend’s games.

(All point spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kickoff times are Eastern and on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)

Title game stakes

No. 16 Arizona State (9-2, 6-2 Big 12) at Arizona (4-7, 2-6), 3:30 p.m., Fox

The Territorial Cup has enormous stakes this weekend because the Big 12’s best shot at the Playoff now resides with the Sun Devils.

It’s remarkable they’re in this position. When Kenny Dillingham arrived, the program was in shambles following a messy end to the Herm Edwards era. Arizona State endured a bowl ban last year, went 3-9 in its Pac-12 swan song and was picked at the bottom of the Big 12 in July. But with new energy and savvy roster management, here are the Sun Devils, able to clinch a Big 12 title game berth with a win (or multiple other scenarios).

Arizona is on the opposite path. The Wildcats were supposed to be the contenders in their first year in the Big 12 after going 10-3 last season and finishing in the top 15. But they haven’t found their footing under new coach Brent Brennan. Five of their seven losses have been by double digits. Their wins came against Houston, Utah, New Mexico and Northern Arizona.

It’s a tall task for the Wildcats, but in a rivalry, anything goes. Thus, the single-digit point spread.

No. 24 Kansas State (8-3, 5-3) at No. 18 Iowa State (9-2, 6-2), 7:30 p.m., Fox

The Farmageddon rivalry is one of the oldest in college football and the longest-running FBS matchup to never be interrupted — at least until 2027, when the continuous streak is set to end. All of which is to say this would be a noteworthy clash even without all that is on the line this Saturday in Ames, Iowa. And there is a lot on the line.

Game time set.

The Cyclones are in a solid position to reach the Big 12 championship with a win after a thrilling escape last Saturday against Utah. K-State is technically still alive and can sneak into the title game with an upset and continued chaos across the league. Or, the Wildcats could simply play spoiler and exact some revenge for Iowa State’s “Snowmageddon” win in Manhattan in 2023. (Note: Forecasts predict kickoff temperatures around 20 degrees.)

After a run of 10 straight wins for Kansas State from 2008 to 2017, Iowa State has claimed four of the past six meetings. Another would likely clinch a title-game berth in what is arguably the most consequential home game in Iowa State football history. The Cyclones last won a conference championship in 1912 as a member of the Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association, a predecessor to the Big Eight.

Line: Iowa State -2.5

Houston (4-7, 3-5) at No. 19 BYU (9-2, 6-2), 10:15 p.m., ESPN

It’s Cougars vs. Cougars!

Big 12 chaos spares no one, and BYU has learned that the hard way the past two weeks. After being the toast of the league and inching up to No. 6 in the Playoff rankings, back-to-back losses have the Cougars tumbling out of the top 15 and needing help to get into the Big 12 title game.

After a slopfest against Kansas, BYU came out flat against Arizona State. It pretty much doomed the Cougars. Even though they crawled out of the 21-3 halftime hole, they couldn’t come all the way back, and a late Jake Retzlaff interception sealed their fate. It’s a must-win for BYU to keep its conference title game hopes alive.

Houston has its own issues: It just fired its offensive coordinator after having the lowest-scoring offense in the FBS this season. Yes, Houston’s 13.6 points per game are lower than even those of 0-12 Kent State (13.9). Quarterbacks coach Shawn Bell will call the plays Saturday, and Willie Fritz will have sufficient time to decide on a future OC, as Houston won’t be going bowling.

Line: BYU -12.5

Oklahoma State (3-8, 0-8) at No. 25 Colorado (8-3, 6-2), noon Friday, ABC

The Buffs can still reach the Big 12 title game with a win and losses by two of the other top four teams — or, oddly enough, losses by BYU and West Virginia (tiebreakers, baby!). Meaning the TV executive dream scenario of getting Coach Prime, Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter in the Playoff is still alive.

Regardless of how the title-game horse race unfolds, and despite a disappointing loss to Kansas last week, it’s been a remarkably fun and encouraging season in Boulder, with a potential Heisman Trophy still to come. The same optimism can not be applied to an Oklahoma State team that is trying to avoid a winless Big 12 record in what has undoubtedly been the most disappointing of Mike Gundy’s 20 seasons leading the Pokes. An upset on Black Friday won’t change that reality, but it at least avoids a goose egg in the conference win column.

Another reason worth tuning in: Deion claims Shedeur and Hunter will play in a bowl game, but on the chance Colorado doesn’t make the Big 12 championship and those two decide to opt out of a bowl, this would be their last game with the Buffaloes.

Line: Colorado -16.5

Mathematically alive

Kansas (5-6, 4-4) at Baylor (7-4, 5-3), noon, ESPN2

In the spirit of Thanksgiving, Baylor coach Dave Aranda shared what he enjoys about the holiday, and he sounds a lot like the rest of us: watching football on the couch in a food coma and hitting the dessert tray early.

Baylor head coach Dave Aranda talked a little bit about his favorite things about Thanksgiving today.

Maybe now that Aranda is off the hot seat, he’ll return to his old storytime habit.

As you’re plating the last of your Thursday leftovers for this early Saturday kick, you’ll be treated to two surging teams. Baylor has won five in a row, and Kansas has become the grim reaper for Big 12 Playoff contenders, knocking off Iowa State, BYU and Colorado in succession and fighting for bowl eligibility.

Line: Kansas -1.5

West Virginia (6-5, 5-3) at Texas Tech (7-4, 5-3), noon, FS1

A win for either program would help the vibes, which have been up and down this season for both schools. Back-to-back 6-3 finishes in Big 12 play would be a solid step for Neal Brown and the Mountaineers. If Tech wins, it’ll be the first time since 2009 that the Red Raiders have finished the regular season with eight wins and a third straight season with a winning conference record, something not achieved since the Spike Dykes era.

Line: Texas Tech -3.5

TCU (7-4, 5-3) at Cincinnati (5-6, 3-5), 6 p.m., ESPN+

The Big 12 says nine teams are still in conference title game contention. Though we’re struggling to figure out a scenario in which TCU gets in, we’ll take its word for it! The Horned Frogs have turned around a potentially disastrous season, winning four of their last five. An 8-4 finish would be respectable. Cincinnati is fighting to end a four-game skid and reach bowl eligibility.

Line: TCU -3.5

Everyone else

Utah (4-7, 1-7) at UCF (4-7, 2-6), 8 p.m. Friday, Fox

“Retirement Watch” seems to be the biggest stakes in this game. Neither team can reach bowl eligibility, but both head coaches have been mentioned in the retirement rumor mill. UCF’s Gus Malzahn shot down those rumors pretty forcefully after last week’s loss to West Virginia, telling reporters: “I don’t know where that came from. I’m not retiring.” Utah’s Kyle Whittingham — finishing his 20th season at the helm for the Utes — was less definitive, saying this week he would “evaluate after the season’s over.”

Line: UCF -9.5

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