BIRMINGHAM, Ala. ( WBRC ) - Good morning and happy Sunday! We had a cold front move through central Alabama yesterday providing us with lower humidity, breezy conditions, and slightly cooler temperatures. The cooler conditions are noticeable this morning with many of us in the 50s along and north of I-20. One of the cool spots is Cullman where it has dropped into the upper 40s around 6 a.m. CDT! It’s slightly warmer south of I-20 with temperatures in the lower 60s. It feels very refreshing when you step outside. Temperatures are nearly 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to yesterday morning. First Alert AccuTrack Satellite and Radar is showing us mostly clear with cloud cover well to our southeast. The cold front that moved through yesterday will remain stalled to our south where showers will remain possible along the Alabama Gulf Coast and into the Florida Panhandle today. We are looking at a beautiful day to spend some time outdoors. We should see a sunny sky with a few clouds possible this afternoon. Temperatures will likely warm into the mid 80s this afternoon with north-northeast winds at 5-10 mph. Humidity levels will remain comfortable so it should feel great. If you have any evening plans, we will remain dry and clear with temperatures cooling into the mid 70s by 7 p.m. CDT.

Mostly sunny Monday: We will likely trend a few degrees warmer tomorrow. Morning temperatures will likely start out in the low to mid 60s for areas along and south of I-20. We could see mid to upper 50s north of I-20. Monday is shaping up to be a nice afternoon with comfortable humidity levels. Temperatures will end up near-average with highs in the upper 80s with a mostly sunny sky. Winds will continue from the northeast at 5-10 mph.

Increasing clouds Tuesday into Wednesday: Temperatures will likely continue to trend a little warmer Tuesday with morning lows in the mid 60s and highs in the upper 80s to 90°F. We should remain dry Tuesday afternoon with a partly cloudy sky. We will be monitoring a tropical low that will likely develop in the western Gulf of Mexico early this week. It should lift northwards and spread widespread cloud cover across the Southeast Wednesday. We will likely end up cloudy and overcast Wednesday afternoon. Morning temperatures Wednesday are forecast to start out in the mid 60s with high temperatures a little cooler in the mid 80s Wednesday afternoon. An isolated shower will remain possible south of I-20 Wednesday evening, but Wednesday is shaping up to be mostly dry.

Next Big Thing: The big story this week is the potential to see a tropical system develop in the western Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disorganized area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche that now has a 70% chance to develop into a tropical depression or storm in the next 48 hours. Most of our models show this system becoming our next named storm by Tuesday as it lifts northwards in the western Gulf of Mexico. The majority of our guidance has this system becoming a tropical storm with a low chance for it to become a Category 1 hurricane. The next name up on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane list is Francine. It looks like this storm could strike somewhere along the Louisiana coast early Thursday morning and lift northwards spreading widespread rain and gusty winds into parts of Mississippi and Alabama by Thursday afternoon.

Our chances to see beneficial rainfall are increasing at this point. I think we could see widespread rain with gusty winds Thursday into Friday. Based on the latest trends, we could see a few inches of rainfall for areas along and west of I-65. Lower totals will be possible in east Alabama. I’m hoping that if this forecast holds true, it could help knock some of the drought that has developed across Alabama. Thursday and Friday will likely remain overcast with rain likely with gusty winds up to 20-30 mph. The intensity and track of this system will determine how much rain we will see and how windy it could get across the state. Since we are on the eastern side of this storm, we will likely need to monitor for an isolated tornado threat Thursday evening into Friday morning. If this storm ends up weaker and remains farther west, the severe threat and rainfall totals could lower. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will likely remain in the 70s. Rain chances should lower by Friday night and into the weekend with only isolated to widely scattered showers possible.

Tropical Update: Besides the system in the western Gulf of Mexico, we are also monitoring two other tropical waves in the Atlantic. We are watching a tropical wave in the Central Atlantic that has a 50% chance to develop into a tropical depression or storm in the next seven days. The Lesser Antilles will likely need to monitor this tropical wave late this week. We have another tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Odds for development are also up to 50% for tropical development in the next seven days. Both of these waves are far out in the Atlantic, so we have time to watch them. No immediate concern to the United States with these two tropical waves. We are entering the peak of the hurricane season in the Atlantic. The season officially ends on November 30th.

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